**Question 282** expected and historical returns, income and capital returns

You're the boss of an investment bank's equities research team. Your five analysts are each trying to find the **expected total return** over the next year of shares in a mining company. The mining firm:

- Is regarded as a mature company since it's quite stable in size and was floated around 30 years ago. It is not a high-growth company;
- Share price is very sensitive to changes in the price of the market portfolio, economic growth, the exchange rate and commodities prices. Due to this, its standard deviation of total returns is much higher than that of the market index;
- Experienced tough times in the last 10 years due to unexpected falls in commodity prices.
- Shares are traded in an active liquid market.

- The analysts' source data is correct and true, but their inferences might be wrong;
- All returns and yields are given as effective annual nominal rates.

In the dividend discount model:

###P_0 = \dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###

The return ##r## is supposed to be the:

In the dividend discount model:

### P_0= \frac{d_1}{r-g} ###

The pronumeral ##g## is supposed to be the:

**Question 452** limited liability, expected and historical returns

What is the lowest and highest expected share price and expected return from owning shares in a **company** over a finite period of time?

Let the current share price be ##p_0##, the expected future share price be ##p_1##, the expected future dividend be ##d_1## and the expected return be ##r##. Define the expected return as:

##r=\dfrac{p_1-p_0+d_1}{p_0} ##

The answer choices are stated using inequalities. As an example, the first answer choice "(a) ##0≤p<∞## and ##0≤r< 1##", states that the share price must be larger than or equal to zero and less than positive infinity, and that the return must be larger than or equal to zero and less than one.

**Question 490** expected and historical returns, accounting ratio

Which of the following is **NOT** a synonym of 'required return'?

**Question 524** risk, expected and historical returns, bankruptcy or insolvency, capital structure, corporate financial decision theory, limited liability

Which of the following statements is **NOT** correct?

An economy has only two investable assets: stocks and cash.

Stocks had a historical nominal average total return of negative two percent per annum (-2% pa) over the last 20 years. Stocks are liquid and actively traded. Stock returns are variable, they have risk.

Cash is riskless and has a nominal constant return of zero percent per annum (0% pa), which it had in the past and will have in the future. Cash can be kept safely at zero cost. Cash can be converted into shares and vice versa at zero cost.

The nominal total return of the shares over the **next** year is **expected** to be:

A stock has a beta of **1.5**. The market's expected total return is **10**% pa and the risk free rate is **5**% pa, both given as effective annual rates.

In the last 5 minutes, bad economic news was released showing a higher chance of recession. Over this time the share market **fell** by **1**%. The risk free rate was unchanged.

What do you think was the stock's historical return over the last 5 minutes, given as an effective 5 minute rate?

A stock has a beta of **1.5**. The market's expected total return is **10**% pa and the risk free rate is **5**% pa, both given as effective annual rates.

Over the last year, bad economic news was released showing a higher chance of recession. Over this time the share market **fell** by **1**%. So ##r_{m} = (P_{0} - P_{-1})/P_{-1} = -0.01##, where the current time is zero and one year ago is time -1. The risk free rate was unchanged.

What do you think was the stock's historical return over the **last year**, given as an effective annual rate?

**Question 770** expected and historical returns, income and capital returns, coupon rate, bond pricing

Which of the following statements is **NOT** correct? Assume that all events are a surprise and that all other things remain equal. So for example, don't assume that just because a company's dividends and profit rise that its required return will also rise, assume the required return stays the same.

**Question 807** market efficiency, expected and historical returns, CAPM, beta, systematic risk, no explanation

You work in Asia and just woke up. It looked like a nice day but then you read the news and found out that last night the American share market fell by **10**% while you were asleep due to surprisingly poor macro-economic world news. You own a portfolio of liquid stocks listed in Asia with a beta of **1.6**. When the Asian equity markets open, what do you expect to happen to your share portfolio? Assume that the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is correct and that the market portfolio contains all shares in the world, of which American shares are a big part. Your portfolio beta is measured against this world market portfolio.

When the Asian equity market opens for trade, you would expect your portfolio value to:

**Question 817** expected and historical returns, income and capital returns

Over the last year, a constant-dividend-paying stock's price fell, while it's future expected dividends and profit remained the same. Assume that:

- Now is ##t=0##, last year is ##t=-1## and next year is ##t=1##;
- The dividend is paid at the end of each year, the last dividend was just paid today ##(C_0)## and the next dividend will be paid next year ##(C_1)##;
- Markets are efficient and the dividend discount model is suitable for valuing the stock.

Which of the following statements is **NOT** correct? The stock's: