Fight Finance

Question 282  expected and historical returns, income and capital returns

You're the boss of an investment bank's equities research team. Your five analysts are each trying to find the expected total return over the next year of shares in a mining company. The mining firm:

• Is regarded as a mature company since it's quite stable in size and was floated around 30 years ago. It is not a high-growth company;
• Share price is very sensitive to changes in the price of the market portfolio, economic growth, the exchange rate and commodities prices. Due to this, its standard deviation of total returns is much higher than that of the market index;
• Experienced tough times in the last 10 years due to unexpected falls in commodity prices.
• Shares are traded in an active liquid market.

Your team of analysts present their findings, and everyone has different views. While there's no definitive true answer, whose calculation of the expected total return is the most plausible? Assume that:

• The analysts' source data is correct and true, but their inferences might be wrong;
• All returns and yields are given as effective annual nominal rates.

(a) Alice says 5% pa since she calculated that this was the average total yield on government bonds over the last 10 years. She says that this is also the expected total yield implied by current prices on one year government bonds.

(b) Bob says 4% pa since he calculated that this was the average total return on the mining stock over the last 10 years.

(c) Cate says 3% pa since she calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share price over the last 10 years.

(d) Dave says 6% pa since he calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share market price index (not the accumulation index) over the last 10 years.

(e) Eve says 15% pa since she calculated that this was the discount rate implied by the dividend discount model using the current share price, forecast dividend in one year and a 3% growth rate in dividends thereafter, which is the expected long term inflation rate.

Question 289  DDM, expected and historical returns, ROE

In the dividend discount model:

###P_0 = \dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###

The return ##r## is supposed to be the:

(a) Expected future total return of the market price of equity.

(b) Expected future total return of the book price of equity.

(c) Actual historical total return on the market price of equity.

(d) Actual historical total return on the book price of equity.

(e) Actual historical return on equity (ROE) defined as (Net Income / Owners Equity).

Question 329  DDM, expected and historical returns

In the dividend discount model:

### P_0= \frac{d_1}{r-g} ###

The pronumeral ##g## is supposed to be the:

(a) Expected future growth rate of the dividend.

(b) Actual historical growth rate of the dividend.

(c) Expected future growth rate of the total required return on equity r.

(d) Actual historical growth rate of the market share price.

(e) Actual historical growth rate of the return on equity (ROE) defined as (Net Income / Owners Equity).

Question 452  limited liability, expected and historical returns

What is the lowest and highest expected share price and expected return from owning shares in a company over a finite period of time?

Let the current share price be ##p_0##, the expected future share price be ##p_1##, the expected future dividend be ##d_1## and the expected return be ##r##. Define the expected return as:

##r=\dfrac{p_1-p_0+d_1}{p_0} ##

The answer choices are stated using inequalities. As an example, the first answer choice "(a) ##0≤p<∞## and ##0≤r< 1##", states that the share price must be larger than or equal to zero and less than positive infinity, and that the return must be larger than or equal to zero and less than one.

(a) ##0≤p<∞## and ##0≤r< 1##

(b) ##0≤p<∞## and ##-1≤r< ∞##

(c) ##0≤p<∞## and ##0≤r< ∞##

(d) ##0≤p<∞## and ##-∞≤r< ∞##

(e) ##-∞<p<∞## and ##-∞<r< ∞##

Question 490  expected and historical returns, accounting ratio

Which of the following is NOT a synonym of 'required return'?

(a) total required yield

(b) cost of capital

(c) discount rate

(d) opportunity cost of capital

(e) accounting rate of return

Question 524  risk, expected and historical returns, bankruptcy or insolvency, capital structure, corporate financial decision theory, limited liability

Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) Stocks are higher risk investments than debt.

(b) Stocks have higher expected returns than debt.

(c) Firms' past realised stock returns are always higher than their past realised debt returns.

(d) In the event of bankruptcy, stock holders are paid after debt holders are fully paid.

(e) Stock holders have a residual claim on the firm's assets.

Question 622  expected and historical returns, risk

An economy has only two investable assets: stocks and cash.

Stocks had a historical nominal average total return of negative two percent per annum (-2% pa) over the last 20 years. Stocks are liquid and actively traded. Stock returns are variable, they have risk.

Cash is riskless and has a nominal constant return of zero percent per annum (0% pa), which it had in the past and will have in the future. Cash can be kept safely at zero cost. Cash can be converted into shares and vice versa at zero cost.

The nominal total return of the shares over the next year is expected to be:

(a) Less than or equal to negative two percent per annum ##(r_\text{shares} \leq -0.02)##.

(b) Exactly negative two percent per annum ##(r_\text{shares} = -0.02)##.

(c) More than or equal to negative two percent per annum ##(r_\text{shares} \geq -0.02)##.

(d) Less than or equal to zero percent per annum ##(r_\text{shares} \leq 0)##.

(e) More than or equal to zero percent per annum ##(r_\text{shares} \geq 0)##.

Question 673  CAPM, beta, expected and historical returns

A stock has a beta of 1.5. The market's expected total return is 10% pa and the risk free rate is 5% pa, both given as effective annual rates.

In the last 5 minutes, bad economic news was released showing a higher chance of recession. Over this time the share market fell by 1%. The risk free rate was unchanged.

What do you think was the stock's historical return over the last 5 minutes, given as an effective 5 minute rate?

(a) -12.5%

(b) -4%

(c) -1.5%

(d) -1%

(e) 12.5%

Question 674  CAPM, beta, expected and historical returns

A stock has a beta of 1.5. The market's expected total return is 10% pa and the risk free rate is 5% pa, both given as effective annual rates.

Over the last year, bad economic news was released showing a higher chance of recession. Over this time the share market fell by 1%. So ##r_{m} = (P_{0} - P_{-1})/P_{-1} = -0.01##, where the current time is zero and one year ago is time -1. The risk free rate was unchanged.

What do you think was the stock's historical return over the last year, given as an effective annual rate?

(a) -12.5% pa

(b) -4% pa

(c) -1.5% pa

(d) -1% pa

(e) 12.5% pa

Question 770  expected and historical returns, income and capital returns, coupon rate, bond pricing

Which of the following statements is NOT correct? Assume that all events are a surprise and that all other things remain equal. So for example, don't assume that just because a company's dividends and profit rise that its required return will also rise, assume the required return stays the same.

(a) If a company's dividend (and profit and free cash flow to equity) rises, its share price will rise.

(b) If a fixed coupon bond's yield to maturity rises, its price will rise.

(c) If a residential property's rent revenue rises, its price will rise.

(d) If a patent's royalty revenue rises, its price will also rise.

(e) If a software asset's licensing revenue rises, its price will also rise.

Question 807  market efficiency, expected and historical returns, CAPM, beta, systematic risk, no explanation

You work in Asia and just woke up. It looked like a nice day but then you read the news and found out that last night the American share market fell by 10% while you were asleep due to surprisingly poor macro-economic world news. You own a portfolio of liquid stocks listed in Asia with a beta of 1.6. When the Asian equity markets open, what do you expect to happen to your share portfolio? Assume that the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is correct and that the market portfolio contains all shares in the world, of which American shares are a big part. Your portfolio beta is measured against this world market portfolio.

When the Asian equity market opens for trade, you would expect your portfolio value to:

(a) Remain unchanged.

(b) Instantaneously fall by 10%.

(c) Slowly fall by 10% over the day.

(d) Instantaneously fall by 16%.

(e) Slowly fall by 16% over the day.

Question 814  expected and historical returns

If future required returns rise, and future expected cash flows remain the same, then prices will , or remain the ?

Question 815  expected and historical returns

If future required returns fall, and future expected cash flows remain the same, then prices will , or remain the ?

Question 816  expected and historical returns

If future expected cash flows rise, and future required returns remain the same, then prices will , or remain the ?

Question 817  expected and historical returns, income and capital returns

Over the last year, a constant-dividend-paying stock's price fell, while it's future expected dividends and profit remained the same. Assume that:

• Now is ##t=0##, last year is ##t=-1## and next year is ##t=1##;
• The dividend is paid at the end of each year, the last dividend was just paid today ##(C_0)## and the next dividend will be paid next year ##(C_1)##;
• Markets are efficient and the dividend discount model is suitable for valuing the stock.

Which of the following statements is NOT correct? The stock's:

(a) Historical capital return last year was negative ##\left( \dfrac{P_0 - P_{-1}}{P_{-1}} < 0 \right)##.

(b) Historical dividend yield last year was negative ##\left( \dfrac{C_0}{P_{-1}} < 0 \right)##.

(c) Expected future capital return next year is positive ##\left( \dfrac{P_1 - P_0}{P_0} > 0 \right)##.

(d) Expected future dividend yield next year is positive ##\left( \dfrac{C_1}{P_0} > 0 \right)##.

(e) Expected future total return next year is positive ##\left( \dfrac{P_1 - P_0 + C_1}{P_0} > 0 \right)##.