**Question 48** IRR, NPV, bond pricing, premium par and discount bonds, market efficiency

The theory of fixed interest bond pricing is an application of the theory of Net Present Value (NPV). Also, a 'fairly priced' asset is not over- or under-priced. Buying or selling a fairly priced asset has an NPV of zero.

Considering this, which of the following statements is **NOT** correct?

The theory of fixed interest bond pricing is an application of the theory of Net Present Value (NPV). Also, a 'fairly priced' asset is not over- or under-priced. Buying or selling a fairly priced asset has an NPV of zero.

Considering this, which of the following statements is **NOT** correct?

**Question 100** market efficiency, technical analysis, joint hypothesis problem

A company selling charting and technical analysis software claims that independent academic studies have shown that its software makes significantly positive abnormal returns. Assuming the claim is true, which statement(s) are correct?

(I) Weak form market efficiency is broken.

(II) Semi-strong form market efficiency is broken.

(III) Strong form market efficiency is broken.

(IV) The asset pricing model used to measure the abnormal returns (such as the CAPM) had mis-specification error so the returns may not be abnormal but rather fair for the level of risk.

Select the most correct response:

A person is thinking about borrowing $100 from the bank at 7% pa and investing it in shares with an expected return of 10% pa. One year later the person intends to sell the shares and pay back the loan in full. Both the loan and the shares are fairly priced.

What is the Net Present Value (NPV) of this one year investment? Note that you are asked to find the present value (##V_0##), not the value in one year (##V_1##).

**Question 119** market efficiency, fundamental analysis, joint hypothesis problem

Your friend claims that by reading 'The Economist' magazine's economic news articles, she can identify shares that will have positive abnormal expected returns over the next 2 years. Assuming that her claim is true, which statement(s) are correct?

(i) Weak form market efficiency is broken.

(ii) Semi-strong form market efficiency is broken.

(iii) Strong form market efficiency is broken.

(iv) The asset pricing model used to measure the abnormal returns (such as the CAPM) is either wrong (mis-specification error) or is measured using the wrong inputs (data errors) so the returns may not be abnormal but rather fair for the level of risk.

Select the most correct response:

Suppose that the US government recently announced that subsidies for fresh milk producers will be gradually phased out over the next year. Newspapers say that there are expectations of a 40% increase in the spot price of fresh milk over the next year.

Option prices on fresh milk trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reflect expectations of this 40% increase in spot prices over the next year. Similarly to the rest of the market, you believe that prices will rise by 40% over the next year.

What option trades are likely to be profitable, or to be more specific, result in a positive Net Present Value (NPV)?

Assume that:

- Only the spot price is expected to increase and there is no change in expected volatility or other variables that affect option prices.
- No taxes, transaction costs, information asymmetry, bid-ask spreads or other market frictions.

A very low-risk stock just paid its semi-annual dividend of $**0.14**, as it has for the last 5 years. You conservatively estimate that from now on the dividend will fall at a rate of **1**% every **6** months.

If the stock currently sells for $**3** per share, what must be its required total return as an effective annual rate?

If risk free government bonds are trading at a yield of **4**% pa, given as an effective annual rate, would you consider buying or selling the stock?

The stock's required total return is:

Select the most correct statement from the following.

'Chartists', also known as 'technical traders', believe that:

Fundamentalists who analyse company financial reports and news announcements (but who don't have inside information) will make positive abnormal returns if:

**Question 338** market efficiency, CAPM, opportunity cost, technical analysis

A man inherits $**500,000** worth of shares.

He believes that by learning the secrets of trading, keeping up with the financial news and doing complex trend analysis with charts that he can quit his job and become a self-employed day trader in the equities markets.

What is the expected gain from doing this over the first year? Measure the net gain in wealth received at the end of this first year due to the decision to become a day trader. Assume the following:

- He earns $
**60,000**pa in his current job, paid in a lump sum at the end of each year. - He enjoys examining share price graphs and day trading just as much as he enjoys his current job.
- Stock markets are weak form and semi-strong form efficient.
- He has no inside information.
- He makes
**1**trade every day and there are**250**trading days in the year. Trading costs are $**20**per trade. His broker invoices him for the trading costs at the end of the year. - The shares that he currently owns and the shares that he intends to trade have the same level of systematic risk as the market portfolio.
- The market portfolio's expected return is
**10**% pa.

Measure the **net gain** over the **first** year as an expected wealth increase at the **end** of the year.

**Question 339** bond pricing, inflation, market efficiency, income and capital returns

Economic statistics released this morning were a surprise: they show a strong chance of consumer price inflation (CPI) reaching 5% pa over the next 2 years.

This is much higher than the previous forecast of 3% pa.

A vanilla fixed-coupon 2-year risk-free government bond was issued at **par** this morning, just **before** the economic news was released.

What is the expected change in bond price after the economic news this morning, and in the next 2 years? Assume that:

- Inflation remains at 5% over the next 2 years.
- Investors demand a constant real bond yield.
- The bond price falls by the (after-tax) value of the coupon the night before the ex-coupon date, as in real life.

A managed fund charges fees based on the amount of money that you keep with them. The fee is **2**% of the **start**-of-year amount, but it is paid at the **end** of every year.

This fee is charged regardless of whether the fund makes gains or losses on your money.

The fund offers to invest your money in shares which have an expected return of **10**% pa before fees.

You are thinking of investing $**100,000** in the fund and keeping it there for **40** years when you plan to retire.

What is the Net Present Value (NPV) of investing your money in the fund? Note that the question is **not** asking how much money you will have in 40 years, it is asking: what is the **NPV** of investing in the fund? Assume that:

- The fund has no private information.
- Markets are weak and semi-strong form efficient.
- The fund's transaction costs are negligible.
- The cost and trouble of investing your money in shares by yourself, without the managed fund, is negligible.

**Question 416** real estate, market efficiency, income and capital returns, DDM, CAPM

A residential real estate investor believes that house prices will grow at a rate of **5**% pa and that rents will grow by **2**% pa forever.

All rates are given as nominal effective annual returns. Assume that:

- His forecast is true.
- Real estate is and always will be fairly priced and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is true.
- Ignore all costs such as taxes, agent fees, maintenance and so on.
- All rental income cash flow is paid out to the owner, so there is no re-investment and therefore no additions or improvements made to the property.
- The non-monetary benefits of owning real estate and renting remain constant.

Which one of the following statements is **NOT** correct? Over time:

A managed fund charges fees based on the amount of money that you keep with them. The fee is **2**% of the **end**-of-year amount, paid at the **end** of every year.

This fee is charged regardless of whether the fund makes gains or losses on your money.

The fund offers to invest your money in shares which have an expected return of **10%** pa before fees.

You are thinking of investing $**100,000** in the fund and keeping it there for **40** years when you plan to retire.

How much money do you expect to have in the fund in 40 years? Also, what is the future value of the fees that the fund expects to earn from you? Give both amounts as future values in 40 years. Assume that:

- The fund has no private information.
- Markets are weak and semi-strong form efficient.
- The fund's transaction costs are negligible.
- The cost and trouble of investing your money in shares by yourself, without the managed fund, is negligible.
- The fund invests its fees in the same companies as it invests your funds in, but with no fees.

The below answer choices list your expected wealth in 40 years and then the fund's expected wealth in 40 years.

**Question 455** income and capital returns, payout policy, DDM, market efficiency

A fairly priced **unlevered** firm plans to pay a dividend of $**1** next year (t=1) which is expected to grow by **3**% pa every year after that. The firm's required return on equity is **8**% pa.

The firm is thinking about reducing its future dividend payments by **10**% so that it can use the extra cash to invest in more projects which are expected to return **8**% pa, and have the same risk as the existing projects. Therefore, next year's dividend will be $**0.90**. No new equity or debt will be issued to fund the new projects, they'll all be funded by the cut in dividends.

What will be the stock's new annual **capital** return (proportional increase in price per year) if the change in payout policy goes ahead?

Assume that payout policy is irrelevant to firm value (so there's no signalling effects) and that all rates are effective annual rates.

**Question 461** book and market values, ROE, ROA, market efficiency

One year ago a pharmaceutical firm floated by selling its 1 million shares for $100 each. Its book and market values of equity were both $100m. Its debt totalled $50m. The required return on the firm's assets was 15%, equity 20% and debt 5% pa.

In the year since then, the firm:

- Earned net income of $29m.
- Paid dividends totaling $10m.
- Discovered a valuable new drug that will lead to a massive 1,000 times increase in the firm's net income in 10 years after the research is commercialised. News of the discovery was publicly announced. The firm's systematic risk remains unchanged.

Which of the following statements is **NOT** correct? All statements are about current figures, not figures one year ago.

**Hint**: Book return on assets (ROA) and book return on equity (ROE) are ratios that accountants like to use to measure a business's *past* performance.

###\text{ROA}= \dfrac{\text{Net income}}{\text{Book value of assets}}###

###\text{ROE}= \dfrac{\text{Net income}}{\text{Book value of equity}}###

The required return on assets ##r_V## is a return that financiers like to use to estimate a business's *future* required performance which compensates them for the firm's assets' risks. If the business were to achieve realised historical returns equal to its required returns, then investment into the business's assets would have been a zero-NPV decision, which is neither good nor bad but fair.

###r_\text{V, 0 to 1}= \dfrac{\text{Cash flow from assets}_\text{1}}{\text{Market value of assets}_\text{0}} = \dfrac{CFFA_\text{1}}{V_\text{0}}###

Similarly for equity and debt.

A company advertises an investment costing $**1,000** which they say is underpriced. They say that it has an expected total return of **15**% pa, but a required return of only **10**% pa. Assume that there are no dividend payments so the entire 15% total return is all capital return.

Assuming that the company's statements are correct, what is the **NPV** of buying the investment if the 15% return lasts for the next **100** years (t=0 to 100), then reverts to 10% pa after that time? Also, what is the NPV of the investment if the 15% return lasts forever?

In both cases, assume that the required return of 10% remains constant. All returns are given as effective annual rates.

The answer choices below are given in the same order (15% for 100 years, and 15% forever):

In general, stock prices tend to rise. What does this mean for futures on equity?

Which of the following statements about futures contracts on shares is **NOT** correct, assuming that markets are efficient?

When an equity future is first negotiated (at t=0):

The efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) and no-arbitrage pricing theory are most closely related to which of the following concepts?

A company advertises an investment costing $**1,000** which they say is underpriced. They say that it has an expected total return of **15**% pa, but a required return of only **10**% pa. Of the **15**% pa total expected return, the dividend yield is expected to always be **7**% pa and rest is the capital yield.

Assuming that the company's statements are correct, what is the NPV of buying the investment if the **15**% total return lasts for the next 100 years (t=0 to 100), then reverts to **10**% after that time? Also, what is the NPV of the investment if the 15% return lasts forever?

In both cases, assume that the required return of 10% remains constant, the dividends can only be re-invested at **10**% pa and all returns are given as effective annual rates.

The answer choices below are given in the same order (15% for 100 years, and 15% forever):

**Question 668** buy and hold, market efficiency, idiom

A quote from the famous investor Warren Buffet: "Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell."

Buffet is referring to the buy-and-hold strategy which is to buy and never sell shares. Which of the following is a disadvantage of a buy-and-hold strategy? Assume that share markets are semi-strong form efficient. Which of the following is **NOT** an advantage of the strict buy-and-hold strategy? A disadvantage of the buy-and-hold strategy is that it reduces:

**Question 776** market efficiency, systematic and idiosyncratic risk, beta, income and capital returns

Which of the following statements about returns is **NOT** correct? A stock's:

**Question 780** mispriced asset, NPV, DDM, market efficiency, no explanation

A company advertises an investment costing $**1,000** which they say is under priced. They say that it has an expected total return of **15**% pa, but a required return of only **10**% pa. Of the **15**% pa total expected return, the dividend yield is expected to be **4**% pa and the capital yield **11**% pa. Assume that the company's statements are correct.

What is the NPV of buying the investment if the 15% total return lasts for the next 100 years (t=0 to 100), then reverts to 10% after that time? Also, what is the NPV of the investment if the 15% return lasts forever?

In both cases, assume that the required return of 10% remains constant, the dividends can only be re-invested at 10% pa and all returns are given as effective annual rates. The answer choices below are given in the same order (15% for 100 years, and 15% forever):

**Question 798** idiom, diversification, market efficiency, sunk cost, no explanation

The following quotes are most closely related to which financial concept?

- “Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work” -Thomas Edison
- “The only place where success comes before work is in the dictionary” -Vidal Sassoon
- “The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it in your pocket” - Kin Hubbard

**Question 807** market efficiency, expected and historical returns, CAPM, beta, systematic risk, no explanation

You work in Asia and just woke up. It looked like a nice day but then you read the news and found out that last night the American share market fell by **10**% while you were asleep due to surprisingly poor macro-economic world news. You own a portfolio of liquid stocks listed in Asia with a beta of **1.6**. When the Asian equity markets open, what do you expect to happen to your share portfolio? Assume that the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is correct and that the market portfolio contains all shares in the world, of which American shares are a big part. Your portfolio beta is measured against this world market portfolio.

When the Asian equity market opens for trade, you would expect your portfolio value to:

**Question 810** CAPM, systematic and idiosyncratic risk, market efficiency

Examine the graphs below. Assume that asset A is a single stock. Which of the following statements is **NOT** correct? **Asset A**:

The famous investor Warren Buffett is one of few portfolio managers who appears to have consistently beaten the market. His company Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) appears to have outperformed the US S&P500 market index, shown in the graph below.

Read the below statements about Warren Buffett and the implications for the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) theory of Eugene Fama. Assume that the first sentence is true. Analyse the second sentence and select the answer option which is **NOT** correct. In other words, find the false statement in the second sentence.

**Question 1034** duration, monetary policy, inflation, market efficiency

On 18 March 2022 the AFR's James Thomson wrote: "In a world where the bombs are still falling in Ukraine and the Fed is just getting started on what looks likely to be a year-long cycle of rising interest rates, it would take a certain amount of bravery to embrace the sort of high-tech, long duration plays that Wood favours" (Thomson, 2022).

Which of the following US macro-economic data releases is most likely to cause Cathie Wood's ARK ETF share price to fall?