The following equation is called the Dividend Discount Model (DDM), Gordon Growth Model or the perpetuity with growth formula: ### P_0 = \frac{ C_1 }{ r - g } ###

What is ##g##? The value ##g## is the long term expected:

For a price of $13, Carla will sell you a share which will pay a dividend of $1 in one year and every year after that forever. The required return of the stock is 10% pa.

For a price of $6, Carlos will sell you a share which will pay a dividend of $1 in one year and every year after that forever. The required return of the stock is 10% pa.

For a price of $102, Andrea will sell you a share which just paid a dividend of $10 yesterday, and is expected to pay dividends every year forever, growing at a rate of 5% pa.

So the next dividend will be ##10(1+0.05)^1=$10.50## in one year from now, and the year after it will be ##10(1+0.05)^2=11.025## and so on.

The required return of the stock is 15% pa.

For a price of $1040, Camille will sell you a share which just paid a dividend of $100, and is expected to pay dividends every year forever, growing at a rate of 5% pa.

So the next dividend will be ##100(1+0.05)^1=$105.00##, and the year after it will be ##100(1+0.05)^2=110.25## and so on.

The required return of the stock is 15% pa.

For a price of $10.20 each, Renee will sell you 100 shares. Each share is expected to pay dividends in perpetuity, growing at a rate of 5% pa. The next dividend is one year away (t=1) and is expected to be $1 per share.

The required return of the stock is 15% pa.

For a price of $129, Joanne will sell you a share which is expected to pay a $30 dividend in one year, and a $10 dividend every year after that forever. So the stock's dividends will be $30 at t=1, $10 at t=2, $10 at t=3, and $10 forever onwards.

The required return of the stock is 10% pa.

For a price of $95, Sherylanne will sell you a share which is expected to pay its first dividend of $10 in 7 years (t=7), and will continue to pay the same $10 dividend every year after that forever.

The required return of the stock is 10% pa.

The following equation is the Dividend Discount Model, also known as the 'Gordon Growth Model' or the 'Perpetuity with growth' equation.

### p_{0} = \frac{c_1}{r_{\text{eff}} - g_{\text{eff}}} ###

What is the discount rate '## r_\text{eff} ##' in this equation?

The following equation is the Dividend Discount Model, also known as the 'Gordon Growth Model' or the 'Perpetuity with growth' equation.

### P_{0} = \frac{C_1}{r_{\text{eff}} - g_{\text{eff}}} ###

What would you call the expression ## C_1/P_0 ##?

**Question 31** DDM, perpetuity with growth, effective rate conversion

What is the NPV of the following series of cash flows when the discount rate is **5**% given as an effective **annual** rate?

The first payment of $10 is in 4 years, followed by payments every 6 months forever after that which shrink by 2% every 6 months. That is, the growth rate every 6 months is actually **negative 2%**, given as an effective **6 month** rate. So the payment at ## t=4.5 ## years will be ## 10(1-0.02)^1=9.80 ##, and so on.

A stock pays annual dividends which are expected to continue forever. It just paid a dividend of $10. The growth rate in the dividend is 2% pa. You estimate that the stock's required return is 10% pa. Both the discount rate and growth rate are given as effective annual rates. Using the dividend discount model, what will be the share price?

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

Cash Flows of a Stock | ||||||

Time (yrs) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ... |

Dividend ($) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.05 | 1.10 | 1.15 | ... |

After year 4, the annual dividend will grow in perpetuity at 5% pa, so;

- the dividend at t=5 will be $1.15(1+0.05),
- the dividend at t=6 will be $1.15(1+0.05)^2, and so on.

The required return on the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates. What is the current price of the stock?

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

Cash Flows of a Stock | ||||||

Time (yrs) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ... |

Dividend ($) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.05 | 1.10 | 1.15 | ... |

After year 4, the annual dividend will grow in perpetuity at 5% pa, so;

- the dividend at t=5 will be $1.15(1+0.05),
- the dividend at t=6 will be $1.15(1+0.05)^2, and so on.

The required return on the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates.

What will be the price of the stock in three and a half years (t = 3.5)?

The following is the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) used to price stocks:

### P_0 = \frac{d_1}{r-g} ###Assume that the assumptions of the DDM hold and that the time period is measured in years.

Which of the following is equal to the expected dividend in 3 years, ## d_3 ##?

**Question 50** DDM, stock pricing, inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows

Most listed Australian companies pay dividends twice per year, the 'interim' and 'final' dividends, which are roughly 6 months apart.

You are an equities analyst trying to value the company BHP. You decide to use the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) as a starting point, so you study BHP's dividend history and you find that BHP tends to pay the same interim and final dividend each year, and that both grow by the same rate.

You expect BHP will pay a $0.55 interim dividend in six months and a $0.55 final dividend in one year. You expect each to grow by 4% next year and forever, so the interim and final dividends next year will be $0.572 each, and so on in perpetuity.

Assume BHP's cost of equity is 8% pa. All rates are quoted as nominal effective rates. The dividends are nominal cash flows and the inflation rate is 2.5% pa.

What is the current price of a BHP share?

A stock pays semi-annual dividends. It just paid a dividend of $10. The growth rate in the dividend is 1% every 6 months, given as an effective **6 month** rate. You estimate that the stock's required return is 21% pa, as an effective **annual** rate.

Using the dividend discount model, what will be the share price?

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

Cash Flows of a Stock | ||||||

Time (yrs) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ... |

Dividend ($) | 0.00 | 1.15 | 1.10 | 1.05 | 1.00 | ... |

After year 4, the annual dividend will grow in perpetuity at -5% pa. Note that this is a negative growth rate, so the dividend will actually shrink. So,

- the dividend at t=5 will be ##$1(1-0.05) = $0.95##,
- the dividend at t=6 will be ##$1(1-0.05)^2 = $0.9025##, and so on.

The required return on the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates.

What is the current price of the stock?

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

Cash Flows of a Stock | ||||||

Time (yrs) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ... |

Dividend ($) | 0.00 | 1.15 | 1.10 | 1.05 | 1.00 | ... |

After year 4, the annual dividend will grow in perpetuity at -5% pa. Note that this is a negative growth rate, so the dividend will actually shrink. So,

- the dividend at t=5 will be ##$1(1-0.05) = $0.95##,
- the dividend at t=6 will be ##$1(1-0.05)^2 = $0.9025##, and so on.

The required return on the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates.

What will be the price of the stock in four and a half years (t = 4.5)?

When using the dividend discount model to price a stock:

### p_{0} = \frac{d_1}{r - g} ###

The growth rate of dividends (g):

The following equation is the Dividend Discount Model, also known as the 'Gordon Growth Model' or the 'Perpetuity with growth' equation.

### p_0 = \frac{d_1}{r - g} ###

Which expression is **NOT** equal to the expected dividend yield?

A share just paid its semi-annual dividend of $10. The dividend is expected to grow at 2% every 6 months forever. This 2% growth rate is an effective 6 month rate. Therefore the next dividend will be $10.20 in six months. The required return of the stock is 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate.

What is the price of the share now?

###p_0=\frac{d_1}{r_\text{eff}-g_\text{eff}}###

Which expression is **NOT** equal to the expected capital return?

A share just paid its semi-annual dividend of $10. The dividend is expected to grow at 2% every 6 months forever. This 2% growth rate is an effective **6 month** rate. Therefore the next dividend will be $10.20 in six months. The required return of the stock 10% pa, given as an effective **annual** rate.

What is the price of the share now?

For certain shares, the forward-looking Price-Earnings Ratio (##P_0/EPS_1##) is equal to the inverse of the share's total expected return (##1/r_\text{total}##). For what shares is this true?

Use the general accounting definition of 'payout ratio' which is dividends per share (DPS) divided by earnings per share (EPS) and assume that all cash flows, earnings and rates are real rather than nominal.

A company's forward-looking PE ratio will be the inverse of its total expected return on equity when it has a:

A stock pays annual dividends. It just paid a dividend of $3. The growth rate in the dividend is 4% pa. You estimate that the stock's required return is 10% pa. Both the discount rate and growth rate are given as effective annual rates. Using the dividend discount model, what will be the share price?

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

Cash Flows of a Stock | ||||||

Time (yrs) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ... |

Dividend ($) | 8 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 8 | ... |

After year 4, the dividend will grow in perpetuity at 4% pa. The required return on the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates.

What is the current price of the stock?

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

Cash Flows of a Stock | ||||||

Time (yrs) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ... |

Dividend ($) | 8 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 8 | ... |

After year 4, the dividend will grow in perpetuity at 4% pa. The required return on the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates.

What will be the price of the stock in 5 years (t = 5), just after the dividend at that time has been paid?

The following is the Dividend Discount Model used to price stocks:

### p_0=\frac{d_1}{r-g} ###

Which of the following statements about the Dividend Discount Model is **NOT** correct?

A stock pays annual dividends. It just paid a dividend of $5. The growth rate in the dividend is 1% pa. You estimate that the stock's required return is 8% pa. Both the discount rate and growth rate are given as effective annual rates.

Using the dividend discount model, what will be the share price?

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

Cash Flows of a Stock | ||||||

Time (yrs) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ... |

Dividend ($) | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 3 | ... |

After year 4, the dividend will grow in perpetuity at 4% pa. The required return on the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates.

What is the current price of the stock?

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

Cash Flows of a Stock | ||||||

Time (yrs) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ... |

Dividend ($) | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 3 | ... |

What will be the price of the stock in 5 years (t = 5), just after the dividend at that time has been paid?

Here's the Dividend Discount Model, used to price stocks:

### p_0=\frac{d_1}{r-g} ###

All rates are effective annual rates and the cash flows (##d_1##) are received every year. Note that the r and g terms in the above DDM could also be labelled: ###r = r_{\text{total, 0}\rightarrow\text{1yr, eff 1yr}}### ###g = r_{\text{capital, 0}\rightarrow\text{1yr, eff 1yr}}### Which of the following statements is **NOT** correct?

A share pays annual dividends. It just paid a dividend of $2. The growth rate in the dividend is 3% pa. You estimate that the stock's required return is 8% pa. Both the discount rate and growth rate are given as effective annual rates.

Using the dividend discount model, what is the share price?

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

Cash Flows of a Stock | ||||||

Time (yrs) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ... |

Dividend ($) | 0 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 20 | ... |

After year 4, the dividend will grow in perpetuity at 5% pa. The required return of the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates.

What is the current price of the stock?

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

Cash Flows of a Stock | ||||||

Time (yrs) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ... |

Dividend ($) | 0 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 20 | ... |

After year 4, the dividend will grow in perpetuity at 5% pa. The required return of the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates.

What will be the price of the stock in 7 years (t = 7), just after the dividend at that time has been paid?

The following is the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) used to price stocks:

###P_0=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###

If the assumptions of the DDM hold, which one of the following statements is **NOT** correct? The long term expected:

Currently, a mining company has a share price of $6 and pays constant annual dividends of $0.50. The next dividend will be paid in 1 year. Suddenly and unexpectedly the mining company announces that due to higher than expected profits, all of these windfall profits will be paid as a special dividend of $0.30 in 1 year.

If investors believe that the windfall profits and dividend is a one-off event, what will be the new share price? If investors believe that the additional dividend is actually permanent and will continue to be paid, what will be the new share price? Assume that the required return on equity is unchanged. Choose from the following, where the first share price includes the one-off increase in earnings and dividends for the first year only ##(P_\text{0 one-off})## , and the second assumes that the increase is permanent ##(P_\text{0 permanent})##:

Note: When a firm makes excess profits they sometimes pay them out as special dividends. Special dividends are just like ordinary dividends but they are one-off and investors do not expect them to continue, unlike ordinary dividends which are expected to persist.

A stock **just paid** its annual dividend of $9. The share price is $60. The required return of the stock is 10% pa as an effective annual rate.

What is the implied growth rate of the dividend per year?

A stock is expected to pay a dividend of $15 in one year (t=1), then $25 for 9 years after that (payments at t=2 ,3,...10), and on the 11th year (t=11) the dividend will be 2% less than at t=10, and will continue to shrink at the same rate every year after that forever. The required return of the stock is 10%. All rates are effective annual rates.

What is the price of the stock now?

A very low-risk stock just paid its semi-annual dividend of $**0.14**, as it has for the last 5 years. You conservatively estimate that from now on the dividend will fall at a rate of **1**% every **6** months.

If the stock currently sells for $**3** per share, what must be its required total return as an effective annual rate?

If risk free government bonds are trading at a yield of **4**% pa, given as an effective annual rate, would you consider buying or selling the stock?

The stock's required total return is:

A stock has a beta of **0.5**. Its next dividend is expected to be $**3**, paid **one** year from now. Dividends are expected to be paid annually and grow by **2**% pa forever. Treasury bonds yield **5**% pa and the market portfolio's expected return is **10**% pa. All returns are effective annual rates.

What is the price of the stock now?

The total return of any asset can be broken down in different ways. One possible way is to use the dividend discount model (or Gordon growth model):

###p_0 = \frac{c_1}{r_\text{total}-r_\text{capital}}###

Which, since ##c_1/p_0## is the income return (##r_\text{income}##), can be expressed as:

###r_\text{total}=r_\text{income}+r_\text{capital}###

So the total return of an asset is the income component plus the capital or price growth component.

Another way to break up total return is to use the Capital Asset Pricing Model:

###r_\text{total}=r_\text{f}+β(r_\text{m}- r_\text{f})###

###r_\text{total}=r_\text{time value}+r_\text{risk premium}###

So the risk free rate is the time value of money and the term ##β(r_\text{m}- r_\text{f})## is the compensation for taking on systematic risk.

Using the above theory and your general knowledge, which of the below equations, if any, are correct?

(I) ##r_\text{income}=r_\text{time value}##

(II) ##r_\text{income}=r_\text{risk premium}##

(III) ##r_\text{capital}=r_\text{time value}##

(IV) ##r_\text{capital}=r_\text{risk premium}##

(V) ##r_\text{income}+r_\text{capital}=r_\text{time value}+r_\text{risk premium}##

Which of the equations are correct?

A share just paid its semi-annual dividend of $5. The dividend is expected to grow at 1% every 6 months forever. This 1% growth rate is an effective **6 month** rate.

Therefore the next dividend will be $5.05 in six months. The required return of the stock 8% pa, given as an effective **annual** rate.

What is the price of the share now?

A company's shares just paid their annual dividend of $2 each.

The stock price is now $40 (just after the dividend payment). The annual dividend is expected to grow by 3% every year forever. The assumptions of the dividend discount model are valid for this company.

What do you expect the effective annual **dividend yield** to be in 3 years (dividend yield from t=3 to t=4)?

###P_0=\frac{d_1}{r-g}###

A stock pays dividends annually. It just paid a dividend, but the next dividend (##d_1##) will be paid in one year.

According to the DDM, what is the correct formula for the expected price of the stock in 2.5 years?

You own an apartment which you rent out as an investment property.

What is the price of the apartment using discounted cash flow (DCF, same as NPV) valuation?

Assume that:

- You just signed a contract to rent the apartment out to a tenant for the next 12 months at $2,000 per month, payable in advance (at the start of the month, t=0). The tenant is just about to pay you the first $2,000 payment.
- The contract states that monthly rental payments are fixed for 12 months. After the contract ends, you plan to sign another contract but with rental payment increases of 3%. You intend to do this every year.

So rental payments will increase at the start of the 13th month (t=12) to be $2,060 (=2,000(1+0.03)), and then they will be constant for the next 12 months.

Rental payments will increase again at the start of the 25th month (t=24) to be $2,121.80 (=2,000(1+0.03)^{2}), and then they will be constant for the next 12 months until the next year, and so on. - The required return of the apartment is 8.732% pa, given as an effective annual rate.
- Ignore all taxes, maintenance, real estate agent, council and strata fees, periods of vacancy and other costs. Assume that the apartment will last forever and so will the rental payments.

In the dividend discount model:

###P_0 = \dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###

The return ##r## is supposed to be the:

In the dividend discount model:

### P_0= \frac{d_1}{r-g} ###

The pronumeral ##g## is supposed to be the:

### p_0= \frac{c_1}{r-g} ###

Which expression is equal to the expected dividend return?

When using the dividend discount model, care must be taken to avoid using a nominal dividend growth rate that exceeds the country's nominal GDP growth rate. Otherwise the firm is forecast to take over the country since it grows faster than the average business forever.

Suppose a firm's nominal dividend grows at **10**% pa forever, and nominal GDP growth is **5**% pa forever. The firm's total dividends are currently $**1** billion (t=0). The country's GDP is currently $**1,000** billion (t=0).

In approximately how many years will the company's total dividends be as large as the country's GDP?

Two years ago Fred bought a house for $**300,000**.

Now it's worth $**500,000**, based on recent similar sales in the area.

Fred's residential property has an expected total return of **8**% pa.

He rents his house out for $**2,000** per month, paid in advance. Every 12 months he plans to increase the rental payments.

The present value of 12 months of rental payments is $**23,173.86**.

The future value of 12 months of rental payments one year ahead is $**25,027.77**.

What is the expected annual growth rate of the rental payments? In other words, by what percentage increase will Fred have to raise the monthly rent by each year to sustain the expected annual total return of 8%?

Stocks in the United States usually pay **quarterly** dividends. For example, the retailer Wal-Mart Stores paid a $0.47 dividend every quarter over the 2013 calendar year and plans to pay a $0.48 dividend every quarter over the 2014 calendar year.

Using the dividend discount model and net present value techniques, calculate the stock price of Wal-Mart Stores assuming that:

- The time now is the beginning of January 2014. The next dividend of $
**0.48**will be received in**3**months (end of March 2014), with another 3 quarterly payments of $0.48 after this (end of June, September and December 2014). - The quarterly dividend will increase by
**2**% every year, but each quarterly dividend over the year will be equal. So each quarterly dividend paid in 2015 will be $0.4896 (##=0.48×(1+0.02)^1##), with the first at the end of March 2015 and the last at the end of December 2015. In 2016 each quarterly dividend will be $0.499392 (##=0.48×(1+0.02)^2##), with the first at the end of March 2016 and the last at the end of December 2016, and so on**forever**. - The total required return on equity is
**6**% pa. - The required return and growth rate are given as effective annual rates.
- All cash flows and rates are
**nominal**. Inflation is**3**% pa. - Dividend payment dates and ex-dividend dates are at the same time.
- Remember that there are 4 quarters in a year and 3 months in a quarter.

What is the current stock price?

Three years ago Frederika bought a house for $**400,000**.

Now it's worth $**600,000**, based on recent similar sales in the area.

Frederika's residential property has an expected **total** return of **7**% pa.

She rents her house out for $**2,500** per month, paid in advance. Every 12 months she plans to increase the rental payments.

The present value of 12 months of rental payments is $**29,089.48**.

The future value of 12 months of rental payments one year ahead is $**31,125.74**.

What is the expected annual **capital** yield of the property?

Stocks in the United States usually pay **quarterly** dividends. For example, the software giant Microsoft paid a $0.23 dividend every quarter over the 2013 financial year and plans to pay a $0.28 dividend every quarter over the 2014 financial year.

Using the dividend discount model and net present value techniques, calculate the stock price of Microsoft assuming that:

- The time now is the beginning of July 2014. The next dividend of $
**0.28**will be received in**3**months (end of September 2014), with another 3 quarterly payments of $0.28 after this (end of December 2014, March 2015 and June 2015). - The quarterly dividend will increase by
**2.5**% every year, but each quarterly dividend over the year will be equal. So each quarterly dividend paid in the financial year beginning in September 2015 will be $ 0.287 ##(=0.28×(1+0.025)^1)##, with the last at the end of June 2016. In the next financial year beginning in September 2016 each quarterly dividend will be $0.294175 ##(=0.28×(1+0.025)^2)##, with the last at the end of June 2017, and so on forever. - The total required return on equity is
**6**% pa. - The required return and growth rate are given as effective annual rates.
- Dividend payment dates and ex-dividend dates are at the same time.
- Remember that there are 4 quarters in a year and 3 months in a quarter.

What is the current stock price?

**Question 405** DDM, income and capital returns, no explanation

The perpetuity with growth formula is:

###P_0= \dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###

Which of the following is **NOT** equal to the total required return (r)?

**Question 416** real estate, market efficiency, income and capital returns, DDM, CAPM

A residential real estate investor believes that house prices will grow at a rate of **5**% pa and that rents will grow by **2**% pa forever.

All rates are given as nominal effective annual returns. Assume that:

- His forecast is true.
- Real estate is and always will be fairly priced and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is true.
- Ignore all costs such as taxes, agent fees, maintenance and so on.
- All rental income cash flow is paid out to the owner, so there is no re-investment and therefore no additions or improvements made to the property.
- The non-monetary benefits of owning real estate and renting remain constant.

Which one of the following statements is **NOT** correct? Over time:

A managed fund charges fees based on the amount of money that you keep with them. The fee is **2**% of the **end**-of-year amount, paid at the **end** of every year.

This fee is charged regardless of whether the fund makes gains or losses on your money.

The fund offers to invest your money in shares which have an expected return of **10%** pa before fees.

You are thinking of investing $**100,000** in the fund and keeping it there for **40** years when you plan to retire.

How much money do you expect to have in the fund in 40 years? Also, what is the future value of the fees that the fund expects to earn from you? Give both amounts as future values in 40 years. Assume that:

- The fund has no private information.
- Markets are weak and semi-strong form efficient.
- The fund's transaction costs are negligible.
- The cost and trouble of investing your money in shares by yourself, without the managed fund, is negligible.
- The fund invests its fees in the same companies as it invests your funds in, but with no fees.

The below answer choices list your expected wealth in 40 years and then the fund's expected wealth in 40 years.

A fairly valued share's current price is $**4** and it has a total required return of **30**%. Dividends are paid annually and next year's dividend is expected to be $**1**. After that, dividends are expected to grow by **5**% pa in perpetuity. All rates are effective annual returns.

What is the expected dividend income paid at the end of the second year (t=**2**) and what is the expected capital gain from just after the first dividend (t=**1**) to just after the second dividend (t=**2**)? The answers are given in the same order, the dividend and then the capital gain.

The first payment of a constant perpetual annual cash flow is received at time 5. Let this cash flow be ##C_5## and the required return be ##r##.

So there will be equal annual cash flows at time 5, 6, 7 and so on forever, and all of the cash flows will be equal so ##C_5 = C_6 = C_7 = ...##

When the perpetuity formula is used to value this stream of cash flows, it will give a value (V) at time:

The perpetuity with growth equation is:

###P_0=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###

Which of the following is **NOT** equal to the expected capital return as an effective annual rate?

**Question 455** income and capital returns, payout policy, DDM, market efficiency

A fairly priced **unlevered** firm plans to pay a dividend of $**1** next year (t=1) which is expected to grow by **3**% pa every year after that. The firm's required return on equity is **8**% pa.

The firm is thinking about reducing its future dividend payments by **10**% so that it can use the extra cash to invest in more projects which are expected to return **8**% pa, and have the same risk as the existing projects. Therefore, next year's dividend will be $**0.90**. No new equity or debt will be issued to fund the new projects, they'll all be funded by the cut in dividends.

What will be the stock's new annual **capital** return (proportional increase in price per year) if the change in payout policy goes ahead?

Assume that payout policy is irrelevant to firm value (so there's no signalling effects) and that all rates are effective annual rates.

A company advertises an investment costing $**1,000** which they say is underpriced. They say that it has an expected total return of **15**% pa, but a required return of only **10**% pa. Assume that there are no dividend payments so the entire 15% total return is all capital return.

Assuming that the company's statements are correct, what is the **NPV** of buying the investment if the 15% return lasts for the next **100** years (t=0 to 100), then reverts to 10% pa after that time? Also, what is the NPV of the investment if the 15% return lasts forever?

In both cases, assume that the required return of 10% remains constant. All returns are given as effective annual rates.

The answer choices below are given in the same order (15% for 100 years, and 15% forever):

Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation prices assets by finding the present value of the asset's future cash flows. The single cash flow, annuity, and perpetuity equations are very useful for this.

Which of the following equations is the 'perpetuity with growth' equation?

What type of present value equation is best suited to value a residential house investment property that is expected to pay **constant** rental payments **forever**? Note that 'constant' has the same meaning as 'level' in this context.

**Question 488** income and capital returns, payout policy, payout ratio, DDM

Two companies BigDiv and ZeroDiv are exactly the same except for their dividend payouts.

BigDiv pays large dividends and ZeroDiv doesn't pay any dividends.

Currently the two firms have the same earnings, assets, number of shares, share price, expected total return and risk.

Assume a perfect world with no taxes, no transaction costs, no asymmetric information and that all assets including business projects are fairly priced and therefore zero-NPV.

All things remaining equal, which of the following statements is **NOT** correct?

A firm is considering a business project which costs $**11**m now and is expected to pay a constant $**1**m at the end of every year forever.

Assume that the initial $**11**m cost is funded using the firm's **existing cash** so no new equity or debt will be raised. The cost of capital is **10**% pa.

Which of the following statements about net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and payback period is **NOT** correct?

**Question 497** income and capital returns, DDM, ex dividend date

A stock will pay you a dividend of $**10** **tonight** if you buy it **today**. Thereafter the annual dividend is expected to grow by **5**% pa, so the next dividend after the $10 one tonight will be $10.50 in one year, then in two years it will be $11.025 and so on. The stock's required return is **10**% pa.

What is the stock price today and what do you expect the stock price to be tomorrow, approximately?

A share currently worth $**100** is expected to pay a constant dividend of $**4** for the next **5** years with the first dividend in one year (t=1) and the last in 5 years (t=5).

The total required return is **10**% pa.

What do you expected the share price to be in **5** years, just **after** the dividend at that time has been paid?

A stock is expected to pay its **next** dividend of $1 in one year. Future annual dividends are expected to grow by 2% pa. So the first dividend of $1 will be in one year, the year after that $1.02 (=1*(1+0.02)^1), and a year later $1.0404 (=1*(1+0.02)^2) and so on forever.

Its required total return is 10% pa. The total required return and growth rate of dividends are given as effective annual rates.

Calculate the current stock price.

A stock **just paid** a dividend of $1. Future annual dividends are expected to grow by 2% pa. The next dividend of $1.02 (=1*(1+0.02)^1) will be in one year, and the year after that the dividend will be $1.0404 (=1*(1+0.02)^2), and so on forever.

Its required total return is 10% pa. The total required return and growth rate of dividends are given as effective annual rates.

Calculate the current stock price.

A stock is **just about to pay** a dividend of $1 **tonight**. Future annual dividends are expected to grow by 2% pa. The next dividend of $1 will be paid tonight, and the year after that the dividend will be $1.02 (=1*(1+0.02)^1), and a year later 1.0404 (=1*(1+0.04)^2) and so on forever.

Its required total return is 10% pa. The total required return and growth rate of dividends are given as effective annual rates.

Calculate the current stock price.

The following cash flows are expected:

- Constant perpetual yearly payments of $70, with the first payment in 2.5 years from now (first payment at t=2.5).
- A single payment of $600 in 3 years and 9 months (t=3.75) from now.

What is the NPV of the cash flows if the discount rate is 10% given as an effective annual rate?

The perpetuity with growth formula, also known as the dividend discount model (DDM) or Gordon growth model, is appropriate for valuing a company's shares. ##P_0## is the current share price, ##C_1## is next year's expected dividend, ##r## is the total required return and ##g## is the expected growth rate of the dividend.

###P_0=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###

The below graph shows the expected future price path of the company's shares. Which of the following statements about the graph is **NOT** correct?

**Question 529** DDM, real and nominal returns and cash flows, inflation, real estate, no explanation

If housing rents are constrained from growing more than the maximum target inflation rate, and houses can be priced as a perpetuity of growing net rental cash flows, then what is the implication for house prices, all things remaining equal? Select the **most correct** answer.

*Background:* Since 1990, many central banks across the world have become 'inflation targeters'. They have adopted a policy of trying to keep inflation in a predictable narrow range, with the hope of encouraging long-term lending to fund more investment and maintain higher GDP growth.

Australia's central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), has specifically stated their inflation target range is between 2 and 3% pa.

Some Australian residential property market commentators suggest that because rental costs comprise a large part of the Australian consumer price index (CPI), rent costs across the nation cannot significantly exceed the maximum inflation target range of 3% pa without the prices of other goods growing by less than the target range for long periods, which is unlikely.

**Question 535** DDM, real and nominal returns and cash flows, stock pricing

You are an equities analyst trying to value the equity of the Australian telecoms company Telstra, with ticker TLS. In Australia, listed companies like Telstra tend to pay dividends every **6** months. The payment around August is called the final dividend and the payment around February is called the interim dividend. Both occur annually.

- Today is mid-
**March 2015**. - TLS's last interim dividend of $
**0.15**was one month ago in mid-**February 2015**. - TLS's last final dividend of $
**0.15**was seven months ago in mid-**August 2014**.

Judging by TLS's dividend history and prospects, you estimate that the nominal dividend growth rate will be **1**% pa. Assume that TLS's total nominal cost of equity is **6**% pa. The dividends are nominal cash flows and the inflation rate is **2.5**% pa. All rates are quoted as nominal effective annual rates. Assume that each month is exactly one twelfth (1/12) of a year, so you can ignore the number of days in each month.

Calculate the current TLS share price.

**Question 547** PE ratio, Multiples valuation, DDM, income and capital returns, no explanation

A firm pays out all of its earnings as dividends. Because of this, the firm has no real growth in earnings, dividends or stock price since there is no re-investment back into the firm to buy new assets and make higher earnings. The dividend discount model is suitable to value this company.

The firm's revenues and costs are expected to increase by inflation in the foreseeable future. The firm has no debt. It operates in the services industry and has few physical assets so there is negligible depreciation expense and negligible net working capital required.

Which of the following statements about this firm's PE ratio is **NOT** correct? The PE ratio should:

Note: The inverse of x is 1/x.

A company advertises an investment costing $**1,000** which they say is underpriced. They say that it has an expected total return of **15**% pa, but a required return of only **10**% pa. Of the **15**% pa total expected return, the dividend yield is expected to always be **7**% pa and rest is the capital yield.

Assuming that the company's statements are correct, what is the NPV of buying the investment if the **15**% total return lasts for the next 100 years (t=0 to 100), then reverts to **10**% after that time? Also, what is the NPV of the investment if the 15% return lasts forever?

In both cases, assume that the required return of 10% remains constant, the dividends can only be re-invested at **10**% pa and all returns are given as effective annual rates.

The answer choices below are given in the same order (15% for 100 years, and 15% forever):

**Question 730** DDM, income and capital returns, no explanation

A stock’s current price is $**1**. Its expected total return is **10**% pa and its long term expected capital return is **4**% pa. It pays an annual dividend and the next one will be paid in **one year**. All rates are given as effective annual rates. The dividend discount model is thought to be a suitable model for the stock. Ignore taxes. Which of the following statements about the stock is **NOT** correct?

**Question 731** DDM, income and capital returns, no explanation

In the dividend discount model (DDM), share prices fall when dividends are paid. Let the high price before the fall be called the peak, and the low price after the fall be called the trough.

###P_0=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###

Which of the following statements about the DDM is **NOT** correct?

A share’s current price is $**60**. It’s expected to pay a dividend of $**1.50** in one year. The growth rate of the dividend is **0.5**% pa and the stock’s required total return is **3**% pa. The stock’s price can be modeled using the dividend discount model (DDM):

##P_0=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}##

Which of the following methods is **NOT** equal to the stock’s expected price in one year and six months (t=**1.5** years)? Note that the symbolic formulas shown in each line below do equal the formulas with numbers. The formula is just repeated with symbols and then numbers in case it helps you to identify the incorrect statement more quickly.

**Question 734** real and nominal returns and cash flows, inflation, DDM, no explanation

An equities analyst is using the dividend discount model to price a company's shares. The company operates domestically and has no plans to expand overseas. It is part of a mature industry with stable positive growth prospects.

The analyst has estimated the **real** required return (r) of the stock and the value of the dividend that the stock **just paid** a moment before ##(C_\text{0 before})##.

What is the highest perpetual **real** growth rate of dividends (g) that can be justified? Select the most correct statement from the following choices. The highest perpetual real expected growth rate of dividends that can be justified is the country's expected:

**Question 740** real and nominal returns and cash flows, DDM, inflation

Taking inflation into account when using the DDM can be hard. Which of the following formulas will **NOT** give a company's current stock price ##(P_0)##? Assume that the annual dividend was just paid ##(C_0)##, and the next dividend will be paid in one year ##(C_1)##.

A share will pay its next dividend of ##C_1## in one year, and will continue to pay a dividend every year after that forever, growing at a rate of ##g##. So the next dividend will be ##C_2=C_1 (1+g)^1##, then ##C_3=C_2 (1+g)^1##, and so on forever.

The current price of the share is ##P_0## and its required return is ##r##

Which of the following is **NOT** equal to the expected share price in 2 years ##(P_2)## just after the dividend at that time ##(C_2)## has been paid?

**Question 748** income and capital returns, DDM, ex dividend date

A stock will pay you a dividend of $**2** tonight if you buy it **today**.

Thereafter the annual dividend is expected to grow by **3**% pa, so the next dividend after the $2 one tonight will be $2.06 in one year, then in two years it will be $2.1218 and so on. The stock's required return is 8% pa.

What is the stock price today and what do you expect the stock price to be tomorrow, approximately?

The following cash flows are expected:

- A
**perpetuity**of yearly payments of $**30**, with the first payment in**5**years (first payment at t=5, which continues every year after that forever). **One**payment of $**100**in 6 years and 3 months (t=**6.25**).

What is the NPV of the cash flows if the discount rate is **10**% given as an effective annual rate?

A stock is expected to pay its first dividend of $**20** in **3** years (t=3), which it will continue to pay for the next nine years, so there will be **ten** $20 payments altogether with the last payment in year 12 (t=12).

From the thirteenth year onward, the dividend is expected to be **4**% more than the previous year, forever. So the dividend in the thirteenth year (t=13) will be $20.80, then $21.632 in year 14, and so on forever. The required return of the stock is **10**% pa. All rates are effective annual rates. Calculate the current (t=0) stock price.

Use the below information to value a levered company with constant annual perpetual cash flows from assets. The next cash flow will be generated in one year from now, so a perpetuity can be used to value this firm. Both the operating and firm free cash flows are constant (but not equal to each other).

Data on a Levered Firm with Perpetual Cash Flows | ||

Item abbreviation | Value | Item full name |

##\text{OFCF}## | $100m | Operating free cash flow |

##\text{FFCF or CFFA}## | $112m | Firm free cash flow or cash flow from assets (includes interest tax shields) |

##g## | 0% pa | Growth rate of OFCF and FFCF |

##\text{WACC}_\text{BeforeTax}## | 7% pa | Weighted average cost of capital before tax |

##\text{WACC}_\text{AfterTax}## | 6.25% pa | Weighted average cost of capital after tax |

##r_\text{D}## | 5% pa | Cost of debt |

##r_\text{EL}## | 9% pa | Cost of levered equity |

##D/V_L## | 50% pa | Debt to assets ratio, where the asset value includes tax shields |

##t_c## | 30% | Corporate tax rate |

What is the value of the levered firm including interest tax shields?

Use the below information to value a levered company with constant annual perpetual cash flows from assets. The next cash flow will be generated in one year from now, so a perpetuity can be used to value this firm. Both the operating and firm free cash flows are constant (but not equal to each other).

Data on a Levered Firm with Perpetual Cash Flows | ||

Item abbreviation | Value | Item full name |

##\text{OFCF}## | $48.5m | Operating free cash flow |

##\text{FFCF or CFFA}## | $50m | Firm free cash flow or cash flow from assets |

##g## | 0% pa | Growth rate of OFCF and FFCF |

##\text{WACC}_\text{BeforeTax}## | 10% pa | Weighted average cost of capital before tax |

##\text{WACC}_\text{AfterTax}## | 9.7% pa | Weighted average cost of capital after tax |

##r_\text{D}## | 5% pa | Cost of debt |

##r_\text{EL}## | 11.25% pa | Cost of levered equity |

##D/V_L## | 20% pa | Debt to assets ratio, where the asset value includes tax shields |

##t_c## | 30% | Corporate tax rate |

What is the value of the levered firm including interest tax shields?

**Question 780** mispriced asset, NPV, DDM, market efficiency, no explanation

A company advertises an investment costing $**1,000** which they say is under priced. They say that it has an expected total return of **15**% pa, but a required return of only **10**% pa. Of the **15**% pa total expected return, the dividend yield is expected to be **4**% pa and the capital yield **11**% pa. Assume that the company's statements are correct.

What is the NPV of buying the investment if the 15% total return lasts for the next 100 years (t=0 to 100), then reverts to 10% after that time? Also, what is the NPV of the investment if the 15% return lasts forever?

In both cases, assume that the required return of 10% remains constant, the dividends can only be re-invested at 10% pa and all returns are given as effective annual rates. The answer choices below are given in the same order (15% for 100 years, and 15% forever):

Use the below information to value a levered company with annual perpetual cash flows from assets that grow. The next cash flow will be generated in one year from now. Note that ‘k’ means kilo or 1,000. So the $30k is $30,000.

Data on a Levered Firm with Perpetual Cash Flows | ||

Item abbreviation | Value | Item full name |

##\text{OFCF}## | $30k | Operating free cash flow |

##g## | 1.5% pa | Growth rate of OFCF |

##r_\text{D}## | 4% pa | Cost of debt |

##r_\text{EL}## | 16.3% pa | Cost of levered equity |

##D/V_L## | 80% pa | Debt to assets ratio, where the asset value includes tax shields |

##t_c## | 30% | Corporate tax rate |

##n_\text{shares}## | 100k | Number of shares |

Which of the following statements is **NOT** correct?

**Question 935** real estate, NPV, perpetuity with growth, multi stage growth model, DDM

You're thinking of buying an investment property that costs $1,000,000. The property's rent revenue over the next year is expected to be $50,000 pa and rent expenses are $20,000 pa, so net rent cash flow is $30,000. Assume that net rent is paid annually in arrears, so this next expected net rent cash flow of $**30,000** is paid one year from now.

The year after, net rent is expected to fall by 2% pa. So net rent at year 2 is expected to be $**29,400** (=30,000*(1-0.02)^1).

The year after that, net rent is expected to rise by 1% pa. So net rent at year 3 is expected to be $**29,694** (=30,000*(1-0.02)^1*(1+0.01)^1).

From year 3 onwards, net rent is expected to rise at **2.5**% pa **forever**. So net rent at year 4 is expected to be $**30,436.35** (=30,000*(1-0.02)^1*(1+0.01)^1*(1+0.025)^1).

Assume that the total required return on your investment property is **6**% pa. Ignore taxes. All returns are given as effective annual rates.

What is the net present value (NPV) of buying the investment property?

A stock has a beta of **1.2**. Its next dividend is expected to be $**20**, paid one year from now.

Dividends are expected to be paid annually and grow by **1.5**% pa forever.

Treasury bonds yield **3**% pa and the market portfolio's expected return is **7**% pa. All returns are effective annual rates.

What is the price of the stock now?

You are an equities analyst trying to value the equity of the Australian supermarket conglomerate Woolworths, with ticker WOW. In Australia, listed companies like Woolworths tend to pay dividends every 6 months. The payment around September is the final dividend and the payment around March is called the interim dividend. Both occur annually.

- Today is mid-November 2018.
- WOW's last final dividend of $
**0.50**was**two**months ago in mid-September 2018. - WOW's last interim dividend of $
**0.43**was**eight**months ago in mid-March 2018. - Judging by the dividend history and WOW's prospects, you judge that the growth rate in the dividends will be
**3**% pa forever. - Assume that WOW's total cost of equity is
**6.5**% pa. All rates are quoted as nominal effective rates. - The dividends are nominal cash flows and the inflation rate is 2.5% pa.

What should be the current share price of WOW?

**Question 999** duration, duration of a perpetuity with growth, CAPM, DDM

A stock has a beta of **0.5**. Its next dividend is expected to be $**3**, paid **one** year from now. Dividends are expected to be paid annually and grow by **2**% pa forever. Treasury bonds yield **5**% pa and the market portfolio's expected return is **10**% pa. All returns are effective annual rates.

What is the Macaulay **duration** of the stock now?

Use the below information to value a mature levered company with growing annual perpetual cash flows and a constant debt-to-assets ratio. The next cash flow will be generated in one year from now, so a perpetuity can be used to value this firm. The firm's debt funding comprises annual fixed coupon bonds that all have the same seniority and coupon rate. When these bonds mature, new bonds will be re-issued, and so on in perpetuity. The yield curve is flat.

Data on a Levered Firm with Perpetual Cash Flows | ||

Item abbreviation | Value | Item full name |

##\text{OFCF}_1## | $12.5m | Operating free cash flow at time 1 |

##\text{FFCF}_1 \text{ or }\text{CFFA}_1## | $14m | Firm free cash flow or cash flow from assets at time 1 |

##\text{EFCF}_1## | $11m | Equity free cash flow at time 1 |

##\text{BondCoupons}_1## | $1.2m | Bond coupons paid to debt holders at time 1 |

##g## | 2% pa | Growth rate of OFCF, FFCF, EFCF and Debt cash flow |

##\text{WACC}_\text{BeforeTax}## | 9% pa | Weighted average cost of capital before tax |

##\text{WACC}_\text{AfterTax}## | 8.25% pa | Weighted average cost of capital after tax |

##r_\text{D}## | 5% pa | Bond yield |

##r_\text{EL}## | 13% pa | Cost or required return of levered equity |

##D/V_L## | 50% pa | Debt to assets ratio, where the asset value includes tax shields |

##n_\text{shares}## | 1m | Number of shares |

##t_c## | 30% | Corporate tax rate |

Which of the following statements is **NOT** correct?

A stock has a beta of 0.5. Its next dividend is expected to be $3, paid one year from now. Dividends are expected to be paid annually and grow by 2% pa forever. Treasury bonds yield 3% pa and the market risk premium (MRP) is 6% pa. All returns are effective annual rates.

Which of the following statements is **NOT** correct?

Here's an excerpt from an interview between Magellan fund co-founder Hamish Douglass and AFR reporter Vesna Poljak, which appeared in the Australian Financial Review article ‘It's all about interest rates: Hamish Douglass’, 19 July 2019:

Take a business growing at 4 per cent a year, with a cost of equity of 10 per cent based off a 5 per cent risk-free rate and a 5 per cent market risk premium: you would value that at around 16.6 times free cashflow.

Now take a business growing at the same rate, with a 4 per cent risk free rate. At a 9 per cent cost of equity that would command a 20 times multiple, he says.

At a 3 per cent risk-free rate, the cost of equity is 8 per cent, and the multiple is 25.

Finally at 2 per cent – 'which is where the world is at the moment' – the same business would be worth around 33 times free cashflow.

In August 2021, the RBA overnight cash rate and 3 year Australian government treasury bond yield were both **0.1**% pa. If this low risk-free yield was expected to persist forever, what approximate equity price-to-cashflow multiple would that imply for a business expected to grow at 4% pa in perpetuity with a 5% equity risk premium?

An analyst has prepared a discounted cash flow model to value a firm's share price. A sensitivity analysis data table with ‘conditional formatting’ shading is shown below. The table shows how changes in the weighted average cost of capital (WACC, left column) and terminal value growth rate (top row) affect the firm's model-estimated share price.

The base case estimates are shown in bold.

Which of the following statements is **NOT** correct? The model-estimated **share price** would normally be expected to: