Fight Finance

A company selling charting and technical analysis software claims that independent academic studies have shown that its software makes significantly positive abnormal returns. Assuming the claim is true, which statement(s) are correct?

(I) Weak form market efficiency is broken.

(II) Semi-strong form market efficiency is broken.

(III) Strong form market efficiency is broken.

(IV) The asset pricing model used to measure the abnormal returns (such as the CAPM) had mis-specification error so the returns may not be abnormal but rather fair for the level of risk.

Select the most correct response:

A stock pays annual dividends. It just paid a dividend of $3. The growth rate in the dividend is 4% pa. You estimate that the stock's required return is 10% pa. Both the discount rate and growth rate are given as effective annual rates. Using the dividend discount model, what will be the share price?

A man inherits $500,000 worth of shares.

He believes that by learning the secrets of trading, keeping up with the financial news and doing complex trend analysis with charts that he can quit his job and become a self-employed day trader in the equities markets.

What is the expected gain from doing this over the first year? Measure the net gain in wealth received at the end of this first year due to the decision to become a day trader. Assume the following:

• He earns $60,000 pa in his current job, paid in a lump sum at the end of each year.
• He enjoys examining share price graphs and day trading just as much as he enjoys his current job.
• Stock markets are weak form and semi-strong form efficient.
• He has no inside information.
• He makes 1 trade every day and there are 250 trading days in the year. Trading costs are $20 per trade. His broker invoices him for the trading costs at the end of the year.
• The shares that he currently owns and the shares that he intends to trade have the same level of systematic risk as the market portfolio.
• The market portfolio's expected return is 10% pa.

Measure the net gain over the first year as an expected wealth increase at the end of the year.

Economic statistics released this morning were a surprise: they show a strong chance of consumer price inflation (CPI) reaching 5% pa over the next 2 years.

This is much higher than the previous forecast of 3% pa.

A vanilla fixed-coupon 2-year risk-free government bond was issued at par this morning, just before the economic news was released.

What is the expected change in bond price after the economic news this morning, and in the next 2 years? Assume that:

• Inflation remains at 5% over the next 2 years.
• Investors demand a constant real bond yield.
• The bond price falls by the (after-tax) value of the coupon the night before the ex-coupon date, as in real life.

A residential investment property has an expected nominal total return of 6% pa and nominal capital return of 3% pa.

Inflation is expected to be 2% pa. All rates are given as effective annual rates.

What are the property's expected real total, capital and income returns? The answer choices below are given in the same order.

An investor wants to make a portfolio of two stocks A and B with a target expected portfolio return of 6% pa.

• Stock A has an expected return of 5% pa.
• Stock B has an expected return of 10% pa.

What portfolio weights should the investor have in stocks A and B respectively?

A semi-annual coupon bond has a yield of 3% pa. Which of the following statements about the yield is NOT correct? All rates are given to four decimal places.

Which of the below formulas gives the profit ##(\pi)## from being short a put option? Let the underlying asset price at maturity be ##S_T##, the exercise price be ##X_T## and the option price be ##f_{LP,0}##. Note that ##S_T##, ##X_T## and ##f_{LP,0}## are all positive numbers.

Which of the following statements about futures is NOT correct?

You are an equities analyst trying to value the equity of the Australian supermarket conglomerate Woolworths, with ticker WOW. In Australia, listed companies like Woolworths tend to pay dividends every 6 months. The payment around September is the final dividend and the payment around March is called the interim dividend. Both occur annually.

• Today is mid-November 2018.
• WOW's last final dividend of $0.50 was two months ago in mid-September 2018.
• WOW's last interim dividend of $0.43 was eight months ago in mid-March 2018.
• Judging by the dividend history and WOW's prospects, you judge that the growth rate in the dividends will be 3% pa forever.
• Assume that WOW's total cost of equity is 6.5% pa. All rates are quoted as nominal effective rates.
• The dividends are nominal cash flows and the inflation rate is 2.5% pa.

What should be the current share price of WOW?