Suppose that the US government recently announced that subsidies for fresh milk producers will be gradually phased out over the next year. Newspapers say that there are expectations of a 40% increase in the spot price of fresh milk over the next year.
Option prices on fresh milk trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reflect expectations of this 40% increase in spot prices over the next year. Similarly to the rest of the market, you believe that prices will rise by 40% over the next year.
What option trades are likely to be profitable, or to be more specific, result in a positive Net Present Value (NPV)?
Assume that:
- Only the spot price is expected to increase and there is no change in expected volatility or other variables that affect option prices.
- No taxes, transaction costs, information asymmetry, bid-ask spreads or other market frictions.
When using the dividend discount model to price a stock:
### p_{0} = \frac{d_1}{r - g} ###
The growth rate of dividends (g):
A share just paid its semi-annual dividend of $10. The dividend is expected to grow at 2% every 6 months forever. This 2% growth rate is an effective 6 month rate. Therefore the next dividend will be $10.20 in six months. The required return of the stock is 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate.
What is the price of the share now?
Question 249 equivalent annual cash flow, effective rate conversion
Details of two different types of desserts or edible treats are given below:
- High-sugar treats like candy, chocolate and ice cream make a person very happy. High sugar treats are cheap at only $2 per day.
- Low-sugar treats like nuts, cheese and fruit make a person equally happy if these foods are of high quality. Low sugar treats are more expensive at $4 per day.
The advantage of low-sugar treats is that a person only needs to pay the dentist $2,000 for fillings and root canal therapy once every 15 years. Whereas with high-sugar treats, that treatment needs to be done every 5 years.
The real discount rate is 10%, given as an effective annual rate. Assume that there are 365 days in every year and that all cash flows are real. The inflation rate is 3% given as an effective annual rate.
Find the equivalent annual cash flow (EAC) of the high-sugar treats and low-sugar treats, including dental costs. The below choices are listed in that order.
Ignore the pain of dental therapy, personal preferences and other factors.
Find Sidebar Corporation's Cash Flow From Assets (CFFA), also known as Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF), over the year ending 30th June 2013.
| Sidebar Corp | ||
| Income Statement for | ||
| year ending 30th June 2013 | ||
| $m | ||
| Sales | 405 | |
| COGS | 100 | |
| Depreciation | 34 | |
| Rent expense | 22 | |
| Interest expense | 39 | |
| Taxable Income | 210 | |
| Taxes at 30% | 63 | |
| Net income | 147 | |
| Sidebar Corp | ||
| Balance Sheet | ||
| as at 30th June | 2013 | 2012 |
| $m | $m | |
| Cash | 0 | 0 |
| Inventory | 70 | 50 |
| Trade debtors | 11 | 16 |
| Rent paid in advance | 4 | 3 |
| PPE | 700 | 680 |
| Total assets | 785 | 749 |
| Trade creditors | 11 | 19 |
| Bond liabilities | 400 | 390 |
| Contributed equity | 220 | 220 |
| Retained profits | 154 | 120 |
| Total L and OE | 785 | 749 |
Note: All figures are given in millions of dollars ($m).
The cash flow from assets was:
Stocks in the United States usually pay quarterly dividends. For example, the software giant Microsoft paid a $0.23 dividend every quarter over the 2013 financial year and plans to pay a $0.28 dividend every quarter over the 2014 financial year.
Using the dividend discount model and net present value techniques, calculate the stock price of Microsoft assuming that:
- The time now is the beginning of July 2014. The next dividend of $0.28 will be received in 3 months (end of September 2014), with another 3 quarterly payments of $0.28 after this (end of December 2014, March 2015 and June 2015).
- The quarterly dividend will increase by 2.5% every year, but each quarterly dividend over the year will be equal. So each quarterly dividend paid in the financial year beginning in September 2015 will be $ 0.287 ##(=0.28×(1+0.025)^1)##, with the last at the end of June 2016. In the next financial year beginning in September 2016 each quarterly dividend will be $0.294175 ##(=0.28×(1+0.025)^2)##, with the last at the end of June 2017, and so on forever.
- The total required return on equity is 6% pa.
- The required return and growth rate are given as effective annual rates.
- Dividend payment dates and ex-dividend dates are at the same time.
- Remember that there are 4 quarters in a year and 3 months in a quarter.
What is the current stock price?
Question 542 price gains and returns over time, IRR, NPV, income and capital returns, effective return
For an asset price to double every 10 years, what must be the expected future capital return, given as an effective annual rate?
A $100 stock has a continuously compounded expected total return of 10% pa. Its dividend yield is 2% pa with continuous compounding. What do you expect its price to be in 2.5 years?
A stock's total standard deviation of returns is 20% pa. The market portfolio's total standard deviation of returns is 15% pa. The beta of the stock is 0.8.
What is the stock's diversifiable standard deviation?
The famous investor Warren Buffett is one of few portfolio managers who appears to have consistently beaten the market. His company Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) appears to have outperformed the US S&P500 market index, shown in the graph below.
Read the below statements about Warren Buffett and the implications for the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) theory of Eugene Fama. Assume that the first sentence is true. Analyse the second sentence and select the answer option which is NOT correct. In other words, find the false statement in the second sentence.