Fight Finance

Question 282  expected and historical returns, income and capital returns

You're the boss of an investment bank's equities research team. Your five analysts are each trying to find the expected total return over the next year of shares in a mining company. The mining firm:

• Is regarded as a mature company since it's quite stable in size and was floated around 30 years ago. It is not a high-growth company;
• Share price is very sensitive to changes in the price of the market portfolio, economic growth, the exchange rate and commodities prices. Due to this, its standard deviation of total returns is much higher than that of the market index;
• Experienced tough times in the last 10 years due to unexpected falls in commodity prices.
• Shares are traded in an active liquid market.

Your team of analysts present their findings, and everyone has different views. While there's no definitive true answer, whose calculation of the expected total return is the most plausible? Assume that:

• The analysts' source data is correct and true, but their inferences might be wrong;
• All returns and yields are given as effective annual nominal rates.

(a) Alice says 5% pa since she calculated that this was the average total yield on government bonds over the last 10 years. She says that this is also the expected total yield implied by current prices on one year government bonds.

(b) Bob says 4% pa since he calculated that this was the average total return on the mining stock over the last 10 years.

(c) Cate says 3% pa since she calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share price over the last 10 years.

(d) Dave says 6% pa since he calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share market price index (not the accumulation index) over the last 10 years.

(e) Eve says 15% pa since she calculated that this was the discount rate implied by the dividend discount model using the current share price, forecast dividend in one year and a 3% growth rate in dividends thereafter, which is the expected long term inflation rate.

Question 424  takeover

Acquirer firm plans to launch a takeover of Target firm. The deal is expected to create a present value of synergies totaling $2 million. A cash offer will be made that pays the fair price for the target's shares plus 70% of the total synergy value. The cash will be paid out of the firm's cash holdings, no new debt or equity will be raised.

Firms Involved in the Takeover
	Acquirer	Target
Assets ($m)	60	10
Debt ($m)	20	2
Share price ($)	10	8
Number of shares (m)	4	1

Ignore transaction costs and fees. Assume that the firms' debt and equity are fairly priced, and that each firms' debts' risk, yield and values remain constant. The acquisition is planned to occur immediately, so ignore the time value of money.

Calculate the merged firm's share price and total number of shares after the takeover has been completed.

(a) $10.15 share price and 4m shares on issue.

(b) $11.6279 share price and 4.3m shares on issue.

(c) $7.72 share price and 5m shares on issue.

(d) $9.3 share price and 4m shares on issue.

(e) $9.65 share price and 4m shares on issue.

Question 429  takeover

In a takeover deal where the offer is 100% scrip (shares), the merged firm's number of shares will be equal to the sum of the acquirer and target firms' original number of shares. or ?

Question 571  foreign exchange rate

An Indonesian lady wishes to convert 1 million Indonesian rupiah (IDR) to Australian dollars (AUD). Exchange rates are 13,125 IDR per USD and 0.79 USD per AUD. How many AUD is the IDR 1 million worth?

(a) AUD 16,613,924,050.63

(b) AUD 10,368,750,000.00

(c) AUD 10,368.75

(d) AUD 96.44

(e) AUD 60.19

Question 573  bond pricing, zero coupon bond, term structure of interest rates, expectations hypothesis, liquidity premium theory, forward interest rate, yield curve

In the below term structure of interest rates equation, all rates are effective annual yields and the numbers in subscript represent the years that the yields are measured over:

###(1+r_{0-3})^3 = (1+r_{0-1})(1+r_{1-2})(1+r_{2-3}) ###

Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) If the expectations hypothesis is true, then the forward rates are the expected future spot rates.

(b) If the liquidity premium theory is true, then the forward rates are lower than the expected future spot rates due to the liquidity premium.

(c) The yield curve is normal when: ##r_{0-1} < r_{1-2} < r_{2-3}##.

(d) The yield curve is flat when: ##r_{0-1} = r_{1-2} = r_{2-3}##.

(e) The yield curve is inverse when: ##r_{0-1} > r_{1-2} > r_{2-3}##.

Question 592  future, margin call

A trader buys one December futures contract on orange juice. Each contract is for the delivery of 10,000 pounds. The current futures price is $1.20 per pound. The initial margin is $5,000 per contract, and the maintenance margin is $4,000 per contract.

What is the smallest price change would that would lead to a margin call for the buyer?

(a) A price fall of $0.76 per pound.

(b) A price fall of $0.10 per pound.

(c) A price fall of $0.04 per pound.

(d) A price rise of $0.04 per pound.

(e) A price rise of $0.10 per pound.

Question 685  future, arbitrage, no explanation

An equity index stands at 100 points and the one year equity futures price is 107.

The equity index is expected to have a dividend yield of 3% pa. Assume that investors are risk-neutral so their total required return on the shares is the same as the risk free Treasury bond yield which is 10% pa. Both are given as discrete effective annual rates.

Assuming that the equity index is fairly priced, an arbitrageur would recognise that the equity futures are:

(a) Under priced and should be bought.

(b) Under priced and should be sold.

(c) Over priced and should be bought.

(d) Over priced and should be sold.

(e) Fairly priced and an arbitrageur would be indifferent to buying or selling them.

Question 829  option, future, delta, gamma, theta, no explanation

Below are some statements about futures and European-style options on non-dividend paying stocks. Assume that the risk free rate is always positive. Which of these statements is NOT correct? All other things remaining equal:

(a) As time elapses, call option prices always fall.

(b) As time elapses, put option prices always fall.

(c) The long future always has a zero Gamma.

(d) The more in-the-money the long call option is, the higher (more positive) is its Delta.

(e) The more in-the-money the long put option is, the lower (more negative) is its Delta.

Question 935  real estate, NPV, perpetuity with growth, multi stage growth model, DDM

You're thinking of buying an investment property that costs $1,000,000. The property's rent revenue over the next year is expected to be $50,000 pa and rent expenses are $20,000 pa, so net rent cash flow is $30,000. Assume that net rent is paid annually in arrears, so this next expected net rent cash flow of $30,000 is paid one year from now.

The year after, net rent is expected to fall by 2% pa. So net rent at year 2 is expected to be $29,400 (=30,000*(1-0.02)^1).

The year after that, net rent is expected to rise by 1% pa. So net rent at year 3 is expected to be $29,694 (=30,000*(1-0.02)^1*(1+0.01)^1).

From year 3 onwards, net rent is expected to rise at 2.5% pa forever. So net rent at year 4 is expected to be $30,436.35 (=30,000*(1-0.02)^1*(1+0.01)^1*(1+0.025)^1).

Assume that the total required return on your investment property is 6% pa. Ignore taxes. All returns are given as effective annual rates.

What is the net present value (NPV) of buying the investment property?

(a) $1,190,459.24

(b) $809,540.76

(c) $768,212.01

(d) -$231,787.99

(e) -$190,459.24

Question 989  PE ratio, Multiples valuation, leverage, accounting ratio

A firm has 20 million stocks, earnings (or net income) of $100 million per annum and a 60% debt-to-equity ratio where both the debt and asset values are market values rather than book values. Similar firms have a PE ratio of 12.

Which of the below statements is NOT correct based on a PE multiples valuation?

(a) The EPS is $5.

(b) The market capitalisation of equity is $1.2 billion.

(c) The share price is $60.

(d) The market capitalisation of debt is $0.72 billion.

(e) The debt-to-assets ratio is 40%.