Fight Finance

Question 58  NPV, inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows, Annuity

A project to build a toll bridge will take two years to complete, costing three payments of $100 million at the start of each year for the next three years, that is at t=0, 1 and 2.

After completion, the toll bridge will yield a constant $50 million at the end of each year for the next 10 years. So the first payment will be at t=3 and the last at t=12. After the last payment at t=12, the bridge will be given to the government.

The required return of the project is 21% pa given as an effective annual nominal rate.

All cash flows are real and the expected inflation rate is 10% pa given as an effective annual rate. Ignore taxes.

The Net Present Value is:

(a) -$112,496,484

(b) -$32,260,693

(c) -$19,645,987

(d) $5,222,533

(e) $200,000,000

Question 61  NPV

In Australia, domestic university students are allowed to buy concession tickets for the bus, train and ferry which sell at a discount of 50% to full-price tickets.

The Australian Government do not allow international university students to buy concession tickets, they have to pay the full price.

Some international students see this as unfair and they are willing to pay for fake university identification cards which have the concession sticker.

What is the most that an international student would be willing to pay for a fake identification card?

Assume that international students:

• consider buying their fake card on the morning of the first day of university from their neighbour, just before they leave to take the train into university.
• buy their weekly train tickets on the morning of the first day of each week.
• ride the train to university and back home again every day seven days per week until summer holidays 40 weeks from now. The concession card only lasts for those 40 weeks. Assume that there are 52 weeks in the year for the purpose of interest rate conversion.
• a single full-priced one-way train ride costs $5.
• have a discount rate of 11% pa, given as an effective annual rate.

Approach this question from a purely financial view point, ignoring the illegality, embarrassment and the morality of committing fraud.

(a) $347.7483

(b) $665.5796

(c) $673.3153

(d) $1,346.6305

(e) $2,693.2610

Question 65  annuity with growth, needs refinement

Which of the below formulas gives the present value of an annuity with growth?

(a) ##\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}\left(1-\dfrac{1}{(1+r)^T}\right)##

(b) ##\dfrac{C_1(1+g)^T}{r-g}\left(1-\dfrac{1}{(1+r)^T}\right)##

(c) ##\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}\left(1-\dfrac{1+g}{(1+r)^T}\right)##

(d) ##\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}\left(1-\left(\dfrac{1+g}{1+r}\right)^T \right)##

(e) ##\dfrac{C_1(1+g)}{r-g}\left(1-\dfrac{1}{(1+r)^T}\right)##

Hint: The equation of a perpetuity without growth is: ###V_\text{0, perp without growth} = \frac{C_\text{1}}{r}###

The formula for the present value of an annuity without growth is derived from the formula for a perpetuity without growth.

The idea is than an annuity with T payments from t=1 to T inclusive is equivalent to a perpetuity starting at t=1 with fixed positive cash flows, plus a perpetuity starting T periods later (t=T+1) with fixed negative cash flows. The positive and negative cash flows after time period T cancel each other out, leaving the positive cash flows between t=1 to T, which is the annuity.

###\begin{aligned} V_\text{0, annuity} &= V_\text{0, perp without growth from t=1} - V_\text{0, perp without growth from t=T+1} \\ &= \dfrac{C_\text{1}}{r} - \dfrac{ \left( \dfrac{C_\text{T+1}}{r} \right) }{(1+r)^T} \\ &= \dfrac{C_\text{1}}{r} - \dfrac{ \left( \dfrac{C_\text{1}}{r} \right) }{(1+r)^T} \\ &= \dfrac{C_\text{1}}{r}\left(1 - \dfrac{1}{(1+r)^T}\right) \\ \end{aligned}###

The equation of a perpetuity with growth is:

###V_\text{0, perp with growth} = \dfrac{C_\text{1}}{r-g}###

Question 106  CAPM

A fairly priced stock has an expected return of 15% pa. Treasury bonds yield 5% pa and the market portfolio's expected return is 10% pa. What is the beta of the stock?

(a) 0

(b) 0.5

(c) 1

(d) 1.5

(e) 2

Question 197  credit risk, bank accepted bill

A highly levered risky firm is trying to raise more debt. The types of debt being considered, in no particular order, are senior bonds, junior bonds, bank accepted bills, promissory notes and bank loans.

Which of these forms of debt is the safest from the perspective of the debt investors who are thinking of investing in the firm's new debt?

(a) Senior bonds

(b) Junior bonds

(c) Bank accepted bills

(d) Promissory notes

(e) Bank loans

Question 282  expected and historical returns, income and capital returns

You're the boss of an investment bank's equities research team. Your five analysts are each trying to find the expected total return over the next year of shares in a mining company. The mining firm:

• Is regarded as a mature company since it's quite stable in size and was floated around 30 years ago. It is not a high-growth company;
• Share price is very sensitive to changes in the price of the market portfolio, economic growth, the exchange rate and commodities prices. Due to this, its standard deviation of total returns is much higher than that of the market index;
• Experienced tough times in the last 10 years due to unexpected falls in commodity prices.
• Shares are traded in an active liquid market.

Your team of analysts present their findings, and everyone has different views. While there's no definitive true answer, whose calculation of the expected total return is the most plausible? Assume that:

• The analysts' source data is correct and true, but their inferences might be wrong;
• All returns and yields are given as effective annual nominal rates.

(a) Alice says 5% pa since she calculated that this was the average total yield on government bonds over the last 10 years. She says that this is also the expected total yield implied by current prices on one year government bonds.

(b) Bob says 4% pa since he calculated that this was the average total return on the mining stock over the last 10 years.

(c) Cate says 3% pa since she calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share price over the last 10 years.

(d) Dave says 6% pa since he calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share market price index (not the accumulation index) over the last 10 years.

(e) Eve says 15% pa since she calculated that this was the discount rate implied by the dividend discount model using the current share price, forecast dividend in one year and a 3% growth rate in dividends thereafter, which is the expected long term inflation rate.

Question 823  option, option payoff at maturity, option profit, no explanation

A European call option should only be exercised if:

(a) It's 'out of the money'.

(b) It will give a positive profit: ##-c_0 + max(S_T-K_T,0) > 0##.

(c) It will give a positive payoff at maturity: ##max(S_T-K_T,0) > 0##.

(d) The underlying asset price is below the option strike price: ##S_T < K_T##.

(e) The underlying asset price is above the break-even price.

Question 849  credit card, APR, no explanation

You just spent $1,000 on your credit card. The interest rate is 24% pa compounding monthly. Assume that your credit card account has no fees and no minimum monthly repayment.

If you can't make any interest or principal payments on your credit card debt over the next year, how much will you owe one year from now?

(a) $13,214.7887

(b) $1,268.2418

(c) $1,240

(d) $806.4516

(e) $788.4932

Question 931  confidence interval, normal distribution

A stock's returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 20 percentage points pa. What is the 90% confidence interval of returns over the next year? Note that the Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail:

• 90% normal probability density function is 1.282.
• 95% normal probability density function is 1.645.
• 97.5% normal probability density function is 1.960.

The 90% confidence interval of annual returns is between:

(a) 30% and -10% pa.

(b) 32.9% and -32.9% pa.

(c) 35.64% and -15.64% pa.

(d) 42.9% and -22.9% pa.

(e) 49.2% and -29.2% pa.

Question 932  confidence interval, normal distribution

A stock's returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 20 percentage points pa. What is the 95% confidence interval of returns over the next year? Note that the Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail:

• 90% normal probability density function is 1.282.
• 95% normal probability density function is 1.645.
• 97.5% normal probability density function is 1.960.

The 95% confidence interval of annual returns is between:

(a) 30% and -10% pa.

(b) 32.9% and -32.9% pa.

(c) 35.64% and -15.64% pa.

(d) 42.9% and -22.9% pa.

(e) 49.2% and -29.2% pa.