Fight Finance

Question 101  payout policy, no explanation

An established mining firm announces that it expects large losses over the following year due to flooding which has temporarily stalled production at its mines. Which statement(s) are correct?

(i) If the firm adheres to a full dividend payout policy it will not pay any dividends over the following year.

(ii) If the firm wants to signal that the loss is temporary it will maintain the same level of dividends. It can do this so long as it has enough retained profits.

(iii) By law, the firm will be unable to pay a dividend over the following year because it cannot pay a dividend when it makes a loss.

Select the most correct response:

(a) Only (i) is true.

(b) Only (ii) is true.

(c) Only (iii) is true.

(d) Only (i) and (ii) is true.

(e) All statements (i), (ii) and (iii) are true.

Question 394  real option, option

According to option theory, it's rational for students to submit their assignments as or as possible?

Question 580  price gains and returns over time, time calculation, effective rate

How many years will it take for an asset's price to quadruple (be four times as big, say from $1 to $4) if the price grows by 15% pa?

(a) 1.3685 years

(b) 3.4783 years

(c) 4.4808 years

(d) 9.919 years

(e) 11.5156 years

Question 721  mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

Fred owns some Commonwealth Bank (CBA) shares. He has calculated CBA’s monthly returns for each month in the past 20 years using this formula:

###r_\text{t monthly}=\ln⁡ \left( \dfrac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} \right)###

He then took the arithmetic average and found it to be 1% per month using this formula:

###\bar{r}_\text{monthly}= \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( r_\text{t monthly} \right)} }{T} =0.01=1\% \text{ per month}###

He also found the standard deviation of these monthly returns which was 5% per month:

###\sigma_\text{monthly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( \left( r_\text{t monthly} - \bar{r}_\text{monthly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} =0.05=5\%\text{ per month}###

Which of the below statements about Fred’s CBA shares is NOT correct? Assume that the past historical average return is the true population average of future expected returns.

(a) The returns ##r_\text{t monthly}## are continuously compounded monthly returns and are likely to be normally distributed, so the mean, median and mode of these continuously compounded returns are all equal to 1% per month.

(b) The annualised average continuously compounded return is ##\bar{r}_\text{cc annual}=12×0.01=0.1=12\%\text{ pa}##. The annualised standard deviation is ##\sigma_\text{annual} = \sqrt{12}×0.05=0.173205081=17.32\%\text{ pa}##.

(c) Over the next 10 years the mean, median and mode continuously compounded 10 year returns will all equal ##0.01 \times 12 \times 10 = 120\%##.

(d) Over the next 10 years the expected mean gross discrete 10 year return is ##e^{(0.01 - 0.05^2/2)×12×10} = 2.857651118## and the median gross discrete 10 year return is ##e^{(0.01 + 0.05^2/2)×12×10}=3.857425531##.

(e) If the current price of the CBA shares is $75, then in 10 years they’re expected to have a mean value of ##75×e^{(0.01 + 0.05^2/2)×12×10} = 289.3069148## and a median value of ##75×e^{0.01×12×10}=249.0087692##.

Question 830  option, delta, gamma, no explanation

Below are some statements about European-style options on non-dividend paying stocks. Assume that the risk free rate is always positive. Which of these statements is NOT correct?

(a) A long call option always has a positive Delta.

(b) A long put option always has a negative Delta.

(c) A long stock always has a Delta of one.

(d) A long call option always has a positive Gamma.

(e) A long stock always has a Gamma of one.

Question 866  option, Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing

A one year European-style put option has a strike price of $4.

The option's underlying stock currently trades at $5, pays no dividends and its standard deviation of continuously compounded returns is 47% pa.

The risk-free interest rate is 10% pa continuously compounded.

Use the Black-Scholes-Merton formula to calculate the option price. The put option price now is:

(a) $1.550849674

(b) $0.982509295

(c) $0.666414943

(d) $0.287263739

(e) $0.055037262

Question 889  cross currency interest rate parity, no explanation

Judging by the graph, in 2018 the USD short term interest rate set by the US Federal Reserve is higher than the JPY short term interest rate set by the Bank of Japan, which is higher than the EUR short term interest rate set by the European central bank.

At the latest date shown in 2018: ##r_{USD}>r_{JPY}>r_{EUR}##

Assume that each currency’s yield curve is flat at the latest date shown in 2018, so interest rates are expected to remain at their current level into the future.

Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

Over time you would expect the:

(a) USD to appreciate against the JPY.

(b) USD to depreciate against the EUR.

(c) JPY to appreciate against the USD.

(d) JPY to depreciate against the EUR.

(e) EUR to appreciate against the JPY.

Question 909  money market, bank accepted bill

By convention, money market securities' yields are always quoted as:

(a) Simple annual rates.

(b) Effective annual rates.

(c) Annualised percentage rates compounding per month

(d) Annualised percentage rates compounding semi-annually

(e) Continuously compounded annual rates.

Question 932  confidence interval, normal distribution

A stock's returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 20 percentage points pa. What is the 95% confidence interval of returns over the next year? Note that the Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail:

• 90% normal probability density function is 1.282.
• 95% normal probability density function is 1.645.
• 97.5% normal probability density function is 1.960.

The 95% confidence interval of annual returns is between:

(a) 30% and -10% pa.

(b) 32.9% and -32.9% pa.

(c) 35.64% and -15.64% pa.

(d) 42.9% and -22.9% pa.

(e) 49.2% and -29.2% pa.

Question 973  foreign exchange rate, monetary policy, no explanation

Suppose the market expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to increase the policy rate by 25 basis points at their next meeting. The current exchange rate is 0.8 USD per AUD.

Then unexpectedly, the RBA announce that they will leave the policy rate unchanged due to increasing unemployment and fears of a potential recession.

What do you expect to happen to Australia's exchange rate on the day when the surprise announcement is made? The Australian dollar is likely to:

(a) Remain at 0.8 USD per AUD.

(b) Appreciate against the USD to be, say, 0.81 USD per AUD.

(c) Appreciate against the USD to be, say, 0.79 USD per AUD.

(d) Depreciate against the USD to be, say, 0.81 USD per AUD.

(e) Depreciate against the USD to be, say, 0.79 USD per AUD.