Suppose that the US government recently announced that subsidies for fresh milk producers will be gradually phased out over the next year. Newspapers say that there are expectations of a 40% increase in the spot price of fresh milk over the next year.
Option prices on fresh milk trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reflect expectations of this 40% increase in spot prices over the next year. Similarly to the rest of the market, you believe that prices will rise by 40% over the next year.
What option trades are likely to be profitable, or to be more specific, result in a positive Net Present Value (NPV)?
Assume that:
- Only the spot price is expected to increase and there is no change in expected volatility or other variables that affect option prices.
- No taxes, transaction costs, information asymmetry, bid-ask spreads or other market frictions.
A furniture distributor offers credit to its customers. Customers are given 25 days to pay for their goods, but if they pay immediately they will get a 1% discount.
What is the effective interest rate implicit in the discount being offered? Assume 365 days in a year and that all customers pay either immediately or on the 25th day. All rates given below are effective annual rates.
A very low-risk stock just paid its semi-annual dividend of $0.14, as it has for the last 5 years. You conservatively estimate that from now on the dividend will fall at a rate of 1% every 6 months.
If the stock currently sells for $3 per share, what must be its required total return as an effective annual rate?
If risk free government bonds are trading at a yield of 4% pa, given as an effective annual rate, would you consider buying or selling the stock?
The stock's required total return is:
Estimate the US bank JP Morgan's share price using a price earnings (PE) multiples approach with the following assumptions and figures only:
- The major US banks JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Citi Group (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) are comparable companies;
- JP Morgan Chase's historical earnings per share (EPS) is $4.37;
- Citi Group's share price is $50.05 and historical EPS is $4.26;
- Wells Fargo's share price is $48.98 and historical EPS is $3.89.
Note: Figures sourced from Google Finance on 24 March 2014.
Your firm's research scientists can begin an exciting new project at a cost of $10m now, after which there’s a:
- 70% chance that cash flows will be $1m per year forever, starting in 5 years (t=5). This is the A state of the world.
- 20% chance that cash flows will be $3m per year forever, starting in 5 years (t=5). This is the B state of the world.
- 10% chance of a major break through in which case the cash flows will be $20m per year forever starting in 5 years (t=5), or instead, the project can be expanded by investing another $10m (at t=5) which is expected to give cash flows of $60m per year forever, starting at year 9 (t=9). Note that the perpetual cash flows are either the $20m from year 4 onwards, or the $60m from year 9 onwards after the additional $10m year 5 investment, but not both. This is the C state of the world.
The firm's cost of capital is 10% pa.
What's the present value (at t=0) of the option to expand in year 5?
Read the following financial statements and calculate the firm's free cash flow over the 2014 financial year.
| UBar Corp | ||
| Income Statement for | ||
| year ending 30th June 2014 | ||
| $m | ||
| Sales | 293 | |
| COGS | 200 | |
| Rent expense | 15 | |
| Gas expense | 8 | |
| Depreciation | 10 | |
| EBIT | 60 | |
| Interest expense | 0 | |
| Taxable income | 60 | |
| Taxes | 18 | |
| Net income | 42 | |
| UBar Corp | ||
| Balance Sheet | ||
| as at 30th June | 2014 | 2013 |
| $m | $m | |
| Assets | ||
| Cash | 30 | 29 |
| Accounts receivable | 5 | 7 |
| Pre-paid rent expense | 1 | 0 |
| Inventory | 50 | 46 |
| PPE | 290 | 300 |
| Total assets | 376 | 382 |
| Liabilities | ||
| Trade payables | 20 | 18 |
| Accrued gas expense | 3 | 2 |
| Non-current liabilities | 0 | 0 |
| Contributed equity | 212 | 212 |
| Retained profits | 136 | 150 |
| Asset revaluation reserve | 5 | 0 |
| Total L and OE | 376 | 382 |
Note: all figures are given in millions of dollars ($m).
The firm's free cash flow over the 2014 financial year was:
If trader A has sold the right that allows counterparty B to buy the underlying asset from him at maturity if counterparty B wants then trader A is:
Question 668 buy and hold, market efficiency, idiom
A quote from the famous investor Warren Buffet: "Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell."
Buffet is referring to the buy-and-hold strategy which is to buy and never sell shares. Which of the following is a disadvantage of a buy-and-hold strategy? Assume that share markets are semi-strong form efficient. Which of the following is NOT an advantage of the strict buy-and-hold strategy? A disadvantage of the buy-and-hold strategy is that it reduces:
"Buy low, sell high" is a well-known saying. It suggests that investors should buy low then sell high, in that order.
How would you re-phrase that saying to describe short selling?
Which of the following statements is NOT correct? Money market securities are: