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Cash Flows of a Stock

Time (yrs)

Dividend ($)

Question 25 bond pricing, zero coupon bond, term structure of interest rates, forward interest rate

A European company just issued two bonds, a

2 year zero coupon bond at a yield of 8% pa, and a
3 year zero coupon bond at a yield of 10% pa.

What is the company's forward rate over the third year (from t=2 to t=3)? Give your answer as an effective annual rate, which is how the above bond yields are quoted.

Question 81 risk, correlation, diversification

Stock A and B's returns have a correlation of 0.3. Which statement is NOT correct?

Question 185 NPV, DDM, no explanation

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

After year 4, the dividend will grow in perpetuity at 4% pa. The required return on the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates.

What will be the price of the stock in 5 years (t = 5), just after the dividend at that time has been paid?

Question 307 risk, variance

Let the variance of returns for a share per month be ##\sigma_\text{monthly}^2##.

What is the formula for the variance of the share's returns per year ##(\sigma_\text{yearly}^2)##?

Assume that returns are independently and identically distributed (iid) so they have zero auto correlation, meaning that if the return was higher than average today, it does not indicate that the return tomorrow will be higher or lower than average.

Question 320 foreign exchange rate, monetary policy, American and European terms

Investors expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to decrease the overnight cash rate at their next meeting.

Then unexpectedly, the RBA announce that they will keep the policy rate unchanged.

What do you expect to happen to Australia's exchange rate in the short term? The Australian dollar is likely to:

Question 361 CFFA

Over the next year, the management of an unlevered company plans to:

Make $5m in sales, $1.9m in net income and $2m in equity free cash flow (EFCF).
Pay dividends of $1m.
Complete a $1.3m share buy-back.

Assume that:

All amounts are received and paid at the end of the year so you can ignore the time value of money.
The firm has sufficient retained profits to legally pay the dividend and complete the buy back.
The firm plans to run a very tight ship, with no excess cash above operating requirements currently or over the next year.

How much new equity financing will the company need? In other words, what is the value of new shares that will need to be issued?

Question 390 real option, option

Some financially minded people insist on a prenuptial agreement before committing to marry their partner. This agreement states how the couple's assets should be divided in case they divorce. Prenuptial agreements are designed to give the richer partner more of the couples' assets if they divorce, thus maximising the richer partner's:

Question 523 income and capital returns, real and nominal returns and cash flows, inflation

A low-growth mature stock has an expected nominal total return of 6% pa and nominal capital return of 2% pa. Inflation is expected to be 3% pa.

All of the above are effective nominal rates and investors believe that they will stay the same in perpetuity.

What are the stock's expected real total, capital and income returns?

The answer choices below are given in the same order.

Question 721 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

Fred owns some Commonwealth Bank (CBA) shares. He has calculated CBA’s monthly returns for each month in the past 20 years using this formula:

###r_\text{t monthly}=\ln⁡ \left( \dfrac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} \right)###

He then took the arithmetic average and found it to be 1% per month using this formula:

###\bar{r}_\text{monthly}= \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( r_\text{t monthly} \right)} }{T} =0.01=1\% \text{ per month}###

He also found the standard deviation of these monthly returns which was 5% per month:

###\sigma_\text{monthly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( \left( r_\text{t monthly} - \bar{r}_\text{monthly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} =0.05=5\%\text{ per month}###

Which of the below statements about Fred’s CBA shares is NOT correct? Assume that the past historical average return is the true population average of future expected returns.

(a) The returns ##r_\text{t monthly}## are continuously compounded monthly returns and are likely to be normally distributed, so the mean, median and mode of these continuously compounded returns are all equal to 1% per month.

(b) The annualised average continuously compounded return is ##\bar{r}_\text{cc annual}=12×0.01=0.1=12\%\text{ pa}##. The annualised standard deviation is ##\sigma_\text{annual} = \sqrt{12}×0.05=0.173205081=17.32\%\text{ pa}##.

(c) Over the next 10 years the mean, median and mode continuously compounded 10 year returns will all equal ##0.01 \times 12 \times 10 = 120\%##.

(d) Over the next 10 years the expected mean gross discrete 10 year return is ##e^{(0.01 - 0.05^2/2)×12×10} = 2.857651118## and the median gross discrete 10 year return is ##e^{(0.01 + 0.05^2/2)×12×10}=3.857425531##.

(e) If the current price of the CBA shares is $75, then in 10 years they’re expected to have a mean value of ##75×e^{(0.01 + 0.05^2/2)×12×10} = 289.3069148## and a median value of ##75×e^{0.01×12×10}=249.0087692##.

Question 813 market efficiency

The famous investor Warren Buffett is one of few portfolio managers who appears to have consistently beaten the market. His company Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) appears to have outperformed the US S&P500 market index, shown in the graph below.

Read the below statements about Warren Buffett and the implications for the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) theory of Eugene Fama. Assume that the first sentence is true. Analyse the second sentence and select the answer option which is NOT correct. In other words, find the false statement in the second sentence.

(a) Buffett is clever and by reading the news and financial reports he is able to buy under-priced stocks and sell over-priced stocks. This provides evidence for rejecting the semi-strong and strong form EMH.

(b) Buffett was lucky, his strategy happened to be the right one, not due to its merits, just by chance. This provides no evidence for or against the weak, semi-strong or strong form EMH.

(c) Buffett’s investment strategy exposes investors to higher undiversifiable risk than the market and therefore deserves a higher return. This provides no evidence for or against the weak, semi-strong or strong form EMH.

(d) Buffett is an insider trader and is able to make money from his private information. This provides evidence for rejecting the semi-strong and strong form EMH. (Note: Warren Buffett is not an insider trader, he is an honest philanthropist, but assume the contrary in this answer option).

(e) Buffett may not have beaten the market because the graphs ignore dividends - the S&P500 is the price index rather than the accumulation index and BRK pays no dividends, so even though BRK has a higher capital return than the S&P500, the total returns could be equal. This provides no evidence for or against the weak, semi-strong or strong form EMH.