# Fight Finance

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Three years ago Frederika bought a house for $400,000. Now it's worth$600,000, based on recent similar sales in the area.

Frederika's residential property has an expected total return of 7% pa.

She rents her house out for $2,500 per month, paid in advance. Every 12 months she plans to increase the rental payments. The present value of 12 months of rental payments is$29,089.48.

The future value of 12 months of rental payments one year ahead is $31,125.74. What is the expected annual capital yield of the property? A residential investment property has an expected nominal total return of 8% pa and nominal capital return of 3% pa. Inflation is expected to be 2% pa. All rates are given as effective annual rates. What are the property's expected real total, capital and income returns? The answer choices below are given in the same order. Stocks in the United States usually pay quarterly dividends. For example, the retailer Wal-Mart Stores paid a$0.47 dividend every quarter over the 2013 calendar year and plans to pay a $0.48 dividend every quarter over the 2014 calendar year. Using the dividend discount model and net present value techniques, calculate the stock price of Wal-Mart Stores assuming that: • The time now is the beginning of January 2014. The next dividend of$0.48 will be received in 3 months (end of March 2014), with another 3 quarterly payments of $0.48 after this (end of June, September and December 2014). • The quarterly dividend will increase by 2% every year, but each quarterly dividend over the year will be equal. So each quarterly dividend paid in 2015 will be$0.4896 ($=0.48×(1+0.02)^1$), with the first at the end of March 2015 and the last at the end of December 2015. In 2016 each quarterly dividend will be $0.499392 ($=0.48×(1+0.02)^2$), with the first at the end of March 2016 and the last at the end of December 2016, and so on forever. • The total required return on equity is 6% pa. • The required return and growth rate are given as effective annual rates. • All cash flows and rates are nominal. Inflation is 3% pa. • Dividend payment dates and ex-dividend dates are at the same time. • Remember that there are 4 quarters in a year and 3 months in a quarter. What is the current stock price? Examine the following graph which shows stocks' betas $(\beta)$ and expected returns $(\mu)$: Assume that the CAPM holds and that future expectations of stocks' returns and betas are correctly measured. Which statement is NOT correct? All things remaining equal, according to the capital asset pricing model, if the systematic variance of an asset increases, its required return will increase and its price will decrease. If the idiosyncratic variance of an asset increases, its price will be unchanged. What is the relationship between the price of a call or put option and the total, systematic and idiosyncratic variance of the underlying asset that the option is based on? Select the most correct answer. Call and put option prices increase when the: Stock A and B's returns have a correlation of 0.3. Which statement is NOT correct? The US government recently announced that subsidies for fresh milk producers will be gradually phased out over the next year. Newspapers say that there are expectations of a 40% increase in the spot price of fresh milk over the next year. Option prices on fresh milk trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reflect expectations of this 40% increase in spot prices over the next year. Similarly to the rest of the market, you believe that prices will rise by 40% over the next year. What option trades are likely to be profitable, or to be more specific, result in a positive Net Present Value (NPV)? Assume that: • Only the spot price is expected to increase and there is no change in expected volatility or other variables that affect option prices. • No taxes, transaction costs, information asymmetry, bid-ask spreads or other market frictions. Economic statistics released this morning were a surprise: they show a strong chance of consumer price inflation (CPI) reaching 5% pa over the next 2 years. This is much higher than the previous forecast of 3% pa. A vanilla fixed-coupon 2-year risk-free government bond was issued at par this morning, just before the economic news was released. What is the expected change in bond price after the economic news this morning, and in the next 2 years? Assume that: • Inflation remains at 5% over the next 2 years. • Investors demand a constant real bond yield. • The bond price falls by the (after-tax) value of the coupon the night before the ex-coupon date, as in real life. Your friend is trying to find the net present value of a project. The project is expected to last for just one year with: • a negative cash flow of -$1 million initially (t=0), and
• a positive cash flow of $1.1 million in one year (t=1). The project has a total required return of 10% pa due to its moderate level of undiversifiable risk. Your friend is aware of the importance of opportunity costs and the time value of money, but he is unsure of how to find the NPV of the project. He knows that the opportunity cost of investing the$1m in the project is the expected gain from investing the money in shares instead. Like the project, shares also have an expected return of 10% since they have moderate undiversifiable risk. This opportunity cost is $0.1m $(=1m \times 10\%)$ which occurs in one year (t=1). He knows that the time value of money should be accounted for, and this can be done by finding the present value of the cash flows in one year. Your friend has listed a few different ways to find the NPV which are written down below. (I) $-1m + \dfrac{1.1m}{(1+0.1)^1}$ (II) $-1m + \dfrac{1.1m}{(1+0.1)^1} - \dfrac{1m}{(1+0.1)^1} \times 0.1$ (III) $-1m + \dfrac{1.1m}{(1+0.1)^1} - \dfrac{1.1m}{(1+0.1)^1} \times 0.1$ (IV) $-1m + 1.1m - \dfrac{1.1m}{(1+0.1)^1} \times 0.1$ (V) $-1m + 1.1m - 1.1m \times 0.1$ Which of the above calculations give the correct NPV? Select the most correct answer.  Project Data Project life 2 yrs Initial investment in equipment$600k Depreciation of equipment per year $250k Expected sale price of equipment at end of project$200k Revenue per job $12k Variable cost per job$4k Quantity of jobs per year 120 Fixed costs per year, paid at the end of each year $100k Interest expense in first year (at t=1)$16.091k Interest expense in second year (at t=2) $9.711k Tax rate 30% Government treasury bond yield 5% Bank loan debt yield 6% Levered cost of equity 12.5% Market portfolio return 10% Beta of assets 1.24 Beta of levered equity 1.5 Firm's and project's debt-to-equity ratio 25% Notes 1. The project will require an immediate purchase of$50k of inventory, which will all be sold at cost when the project ends. Current liabilities are negligible so they can be ignored.

Assumptions

• The debt-to-equity ratio will be kept constant throughout the life of the project. The amount of interest expense at the end of each period has been correctly calculated to maintain this constant debt-to-equity ratio. Note that interest expense is different in each year.
• Thousands are represented by 'k' (kilo).
• All cash flows occur at the start or end of the year as appropriate, not in the middle or throughout the year.
• All rates and cash flows are nominal. The inflation rate is 2% pa.
• All rates are given as effective annual rates.
• The 50% capital gains tax discount is not available since the project is undertaken by a firm, not an individual.

What is the net present value (NPV) of the project?

 Portfolio Details Stock Expected return Standard deviation Correlation $(\rho_{A,B})$ Dollars invested A 0.1 0.4 0.5 60 B 0.2 0.6 140

What is the standard deviation (not variance) of the above portfolio?

Three important classes of investable risky assets are:

• Corporate debt which has low total risk,
• Real estate which has medium total risk,
• Equity which has high total risk.

Assume that the correlation between total returns on:

• Corporate debt and real estate is 0.1,
• Corporate debt and equity is 0.1,
• Real estate and equity is 0.5.

You are considering investing all of your wealth in one or more of these asset classes. Which portfolio will give the lowest total risk? You are restricted from shorting any of these assets. Disregard returns and the risk-return trade-off, pretend that you are only concerned with minimising risk.

Which of the following discount rates should be the highest for a levered company? Ignore the costs of financial distress.

A stock's standard deviation of returns is expected to be:

• 0.09 per month for the first 5 months;
• 0.14 per month for the next 7 months.

What is the expected standard deviation of the stock per year $(\sigma_\text{annual})$?

Assume that returns are independently and identically distributed (iid) and therefore have zero auto-correlation.

Question 245  foreign exchange rate, monetary policy, foreign exchange rate direct quote, no explanation

Investors expect Australia's central bank, the RBA, to leave the policy rate unchanged at their next meeting.

Then unexpectedly, the policy rate is reduced due to fears that Australia's GDP growth is slowing.

What do you expect to happen to Australia's exchange rate? Direct and indirect quotes are given from the perspective of an Australian.

The Australian dollar will:

In Australia, nominal yields on semi-annual coupon paying Government Bonds with 2 years until maturity are currently 2.83% pa.

The inflation rate is currently 2.2% pa, given as an APR compounding per quarter. The inflation rate is not expected to change over the next 2 years.

What is the real yield on these bonds, given as an APR compounding every 6 months?

You're trying to save enough money to buy your first car which costs $2,500. You can save$100 at the end of each month starting from now. You currently have no money at all. You just opened a bank account with an interest rate of 6% pa payable monthly.

How many months will it take to save enough money to buy the car? Assume that the price of the car will stay the same over time.

An 'interest only' loan can also be called a:

A stock is expected to pay a dividend of $15 in one year (t=1), then$25 for 9 years after that (payments at t=2 ,3,...10), and on the 11th year (t=11) the dividend will be 2% less than at t=10, and will continue to shrink at the same rate every year after that forever. The required return of the stock is 10%. All rates are effective annual rates.

What is the price of the stock now?

A bank grants a borrower an interest-only residential mortgage loan with a very large 50% deposit and a nominal interest rate of 6% that is not expected to change. Assume that inflation is expected to be a constant 2% pa over the life of the loan. Ignore credit risk.

From the bank's point of view, what is the long term expected nominal capital return of the loan asset?

Question 345  capital budgeting, break even, NPV

 Project Data Project life 10 yrs Initial investment in factory $10m Depreciation of factory per year$1m Expected scrap value of factory at end of project $0 Sale price per unit$10 Variable cost per unit $6 Fixed costs per year, paid at the end of each year$2m Interest expense per year 0 Tax rate 30% Cost of capital per annum 10%

Notes

1. The firm's current liabilities are forecast to stay at $0.5m. The firm's current assets (mostly inventory) is currently$1m, but is forecast to grow by $0.1m at the end of each year due to the project. At the end of the project, the current assets accumulated due to the project can be sold for the same price that they were bought. 2. A marketing survey was used to forecast sales. It cost$1.4m which was just paid. The cost has been capitalised by the accountants and is tax-deductible over the life of the project, regardless of whether the project goes ahead or not. This amortisation expense is not included in the depreciation expense listed in the table above.

Assumptions

• All cash flows occur at the start or end of the year as appropriate, not in the middle or throughout the year.
• All rates and cash flows are real. The inflation rate is 3% pa.
• All rates are given as effective annual rates.

Find the break even unit production (Q) per year to achieve a zero Net Income (NI) and Net Present Value (NPV), respectively. The answers below are listed in the same order.

An established mining firm announces that it expects large losses over the following year due to flooding which has temporarily stalled production at its mines. Which statement(s) are correct?

(i) If the firm adheres to a full dividend payout policy it will not pay any dividends over the following year.

(ii) If the firm wants to signal that the loss is temporary it will maintain the same level of dividends. It can do this so long as it has enough retained profits.

(iii) By law, the firm will be unable to pay a dividend over the following year because it cannot pay a dividend when it makes a loss.

Select the most correct response:

A newly floated farming company is financed with senior bonds, junior bonds, cumulative non-voting preferred stock and common stock. The new company has no retained profits and due to floods it was unable to record any revenues this year, leading to a loss. The firm is not bankrupt yet since it still has substantial contributed equity (same as paid-up capital).

On which securities must it pay interest or dividend payments in this terrible financial year?

You just signed up for a 30 year fully amortising mortgage loan with monthly payments of $1,500 per month. The interest rate is 9% pa which is not expected to change. To your surprise, you can actually afford to pay$2,000 per month and your mortgage allows early repayments without fees. If you maintain these higher monthly payments, how long will it take to pay off your mortgage?

The 'futures price' in a futures contract is paid at the start when the futures contract is agreed to. or ?

A zero coupon bond that matures in 6 months has a face value of $1,000. The firm that issued this bond is trying to forecast its income statement for the year. It needs to calculate the interest expense of the bond this year. The bond is highly illiquid and hasn't traded on the market. But the finance department have assessed the bond's fair value to be$950 and this is its book value right now at the start of the year.

Assume that:

• the firm uses the 'effective interest method' to calculate interest expense.
• the market value of the bond is the same as the book value.
• the firm is only interested in this bond's interest expense. Do not include the interest expense for a new bond issued to refinance the current one, as would normally happen.

What will be the interest expense of the bond this year for the purpose of forecasting the income statement?

You have just sold an 'in the money' 6 month European put option on the mining company BHP at an exercise price of $40 for a premium of$3.

Which of the following statements best describes your situation?

In the Merton model of corporate debt, buying a levered company's debt is equivalent to buying risk free government bonds and: