Fight Finance

A firm's weighted average cost of capital before tax (##r_\text{WACC before tax}##) would increase due to:

Assume that there exists a perfect world with no transaction costs, no asymmetric information, no taxes, no agency costs, equal borrowing rates for corporations and individual investors, the ability to short the risk free asset, semi-strong form efficient markets, the CAPM holds, investors are rational and risk-averse and there are no other market frictions.

For a firm operating in this perfect world, which statement(s) are correct?

(i) When a firm changes its capital structure and/or payout policy, share holders' wealth is unaffected.

(ii) When the idiosyncratic risk of a firm's assets increases, share holders do not expect higher returns.

(iii) When the systematic risk of a firm's assets increases, share holders do not expect higher returns.

Select the most correct response:

A man inherits $500,000 worth of shares.

He believes that by learning the secrets of trading, keeping up with the financial news and doing complex trend analysis with charts that he can quit his job and become a self-employed day trader in the equities markets.

What is the expected gain from doing this over the first year? Measure the net gain in wealth received at the end of this first year due to the decision to become a day trader. Assume the following:

• He earns $60,000 pa in his current job, paid in a lump sum at the end of each year.
• He enjoys examining share price graphs and day trading just as much as he enjoys his current job.
• Stock markets are weak form and semi-strong form efficient.
• He has no inside information.
• He makes 1 trade every day and there are 250 trading days in the year. Trading costs are $20 per trade. His broker invoices him for the trading costs at the end of the year.
• The shares that he currently owns and the shares that he intends to trade have the same level of systematic risk as the market portfolio.
• The market portfolio's expected return is 10% pa.

Measure the net gain over the first year as an expected wealth increase at the end of the year.

A residential real estate investor believes that house prices will grow at a rate of 5% pa and that rents will grow by 2% pa forever.

All rates are given as nominal effective annual returns. Assume that:

• His forecast is true.
• Real estate is and always will be fairly priced and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is true.
• Ignore all costs such as taxes, agent fees, maintenance and so on.
• All rental income cash flow is paid out to the owner, so there is no re-investment and therefore no additions or improvements made to the property.
• The non-monetary benefits of owning real estate and renting remain constant.

Which one of the following statements is NOT correct? Over time:

The accounting identity states that the book value of a company's assets (A) equals its liabilities (L) plus owners equity (OE), so A = L + OE.

The finance version states that the market value of a company's assets (V) equals the market value of its debt (D) plus equity (E), so V = D + E.

Therefore a business's assets can be seen as a portfolio of the debt and equity that fund the assets.

Let ##\sigma_\text{V total}^2## be the total variance of returns on assets, ##\sigma_\text{V syst}^2## be the systematic variance of returns on assets, and ##\sigma_\text{V idio}^2## be the idiosyncratic variance of returns on assets, and ##\rho_\text{D idio, E idio}## be the correlation between the idiosyncratic returns on debt and equity.

Which of the following equations is NOT correct?

Which of the following is NOT a valid method for estimating the beta of a company's stock? Assume that markets are efficient, a long history of past data is available, the stock possesses idiosyncratic and market risk. The variances and standard deviations below denote total risks.

Which of the following statements is NOT correct? Fairly-priced assets should:

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Single Index Model (SIM) are single factor models whose only risk factor is the market portfolio’s return. Say a Solar electricity generator company and a Beach bathing chair renting company are influenced by two factors, the market portfolio return and cloud cover in the sky. When it's sunny and not cloudy, both the Solar and Beach companies’ stock prices do well. When there’s dense cloud cover and no sun, both do poorly. Assume that cloud coverage risk is a systematic risk that cannot be diversified and that cloud cover has zero correlation with the market portfolio’s returns.

Which of the following statements about these two stocks is NOT correct?

The CAPM and SIM:

Over-priced assets should NOT:

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Single Index Model (SIM) are single factor models whose only risk factor is the market portfolio’s return. Say a Taxi company and an Umbrella company are influenced by two factors, the market portfolio return and rainfall. When it rains, both the Taxi and Umbrella companies’ stock prices do well. When there’s no rain, both do poorly. Assume that rainfall risk is a systematic risk that cannot be diversified and that rainfall has zero correlation with the market portfolio’s returns.

Which of the following statements about these two stocks is NOT correct?

The CAPM and SIM:

You work for XYZ company and you’ve been asked to evaluate a new project which has double the systematic risk of the company’s other projects.

You use the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) formula and input the treasury yield ##(r_f )##, market risk premium ##(r_m-r_f )## and the company’s asset beta risk factor ##(\beta_{XYZ} )## into the CAPM formula which outputs a return.

This return that you’ve just found is:

A stock has a beta of 0.5. Its next dividend is expected to be $3, paid one year from now. Dividends are expected to be paid annually and grow by 2% pa forever. Treasury bonds yield 5% pa and the market portfolio's expected return is 10% pa. All returns are effective annual rates.

What is the Macaulay duration of the stock now?

What is the covariance of a variable X with itself?

The cov(X, X) or ##\sigma_{X,X}## equals:

Your friend claims that by reading 'The Economist' magazine's economic news articles, she can identify shares that will have positive abnormal expected returns over the next 2 years. Assuming that her claim is true, which statement(s) are correct?

(i) Weak form market efficiency is broken.

(ii) Semi-strong form market efficiency is broken.

(iii) Strong form market efficiency is broken.

(iv) The asset pricing model used to measure the abnormal returns (such as the CAPM) is either wrong (mis-specification error) or is measured using the wrong inputs (data errors) so the returns may not be abnormal but rather fair for the level of risk.

Select the most correct response:

Technical traders:

Select the most correct statement from the following.

'Chartists', also known as 'technical traders', believe that:

Fundamentalists who analyse company financial reports and news announcements (but who don't have inside information) will make positive abnormal returns if:

A company selling charting and technical analysis software claims that independent academic studies have shown that its software makes significantly positive abnormal returns. Assuming the claim is true, which statement(s) are correct?

(I) Weak form market efficiency is broken.

(II) Semi-strong form market efficiency is broken.

(III) Strong form market efficiency is broken.

(IV) The asset pricing model used to measure the abnormal returns (such as the CAPM) had mis-specification error so the returns may not be abnormal but rather fair for the level of risk.

Select the most correct response:

Economic statistics released this morning were a surprise: they show a strong chance of consumer price inflation (CPI) reaching 5% pa over the next 2 years.

This is much higher than the previous forecast of 3% pa.

A vanilla fixed-coupon 2-year risk-free government bond was issued at par this morning, just before the economic news was released.

What is the expected change in bond price after the economic news this morning, and in the next 2 years? Assume that:

• Inflation remains at 5% over the next 2 years.
• Investors demand a constant real bond yield.
• The bond price falls by the (after-tax) value of the coupon the night before the ex-coupon date, as in real life.

A managed fund charges fees based on the amount of money that you keep with them. The fee is 2% of the end-of-year amount, paid at the end of every year.

This fee is charged regardless of whether the fund makes gains or losses on your money.

The fund offers to invest your money in shares which have an expected return of 10% pa before fees.

You are thinking of investing $100,000 in the fund and keeping it there for 40 years when you plan to retire.

How much money do you expect to have in the fund in 40 years? Also, what is the future value of the fees that the fund expects to earn from you? Give both amounts as future values in 40 years. Assume that:

• The fund has no private information.
• Markets are weak and semi-strong form efficient.
• The fund's transaction costs are negligible.
• The cost and trouble of investing your money in shares by yourself, without the managed fund, is negligible.
• The fund invests its fees in the same companies as it invests your funds in, but with no fees.

The below answer choices list your expected wealth in 40 years, and then the fund's expected wealth in 40 years.

The efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) and no-arbitrage pricing theory are most closely related to which of the following concepts?

A company advertises an investment costing $1,000 which they say is under priced. They say that it has an expected total return of 15% pa, but a required return of only 10% pa. Of the 15% pa total expected return, the dividend yield is expected to be 4% pa and the capital yield 11% pa. Assume that the company's statements are correct.

What is the NPV of buying the investment if the 15% total return lasts for the next 100 years (t=0 to 100), then reverts to 10% after that time? Also, what is the NPV of the investment if the 15% return lasts forever?

In both cases, assume that the required return of 10% remains constant, the dividends can only be re-invested at 10% pa and all returns are given as effective annual rates. The answer choices below are given in the same order (15% for 100 years, and 15% forever):

A small private company has a single shareholder. This year the firm earned a $100 profit before tax. All of the firm's after tax profits will be paid out as dividends to the owner.

The corporate tax rate is 30% and the sole shareholder's personal marginal tax rate is 45%.

The United States' classical tax system applies because the company generates all of its income in the US and pays corporate tax to the Internal Revenue Service. The shareholder is also an American for tax purposes.

What will be the personal tax payable by the shareholder and the corporate tax payable by the company?

Currently, a mining company has a share price of $6 and pays constant annual dividends of $0.50. The next dividend will be paid in 1 year. Suddenly and unexpectedly the mining company announces that due to higher than expected profits, all of these windfall profits will be paid as a special dividend of $0.30 in 1 year.

If investors believe that the windfall profits and dividend is a one-off event, what will be the new share price? If investors believe that the additional dividend is actually permanent and will continue to be paid, what will be the new share price? Assume that the required return on equity is unchanged. Choose from the following, where the first share price includes the one-off increase in earnings and dividends for the first year only ##(P_\text{0 one-off})## , and the second assumes that the increase is permanent ##(P_\text{0 permanent})##:

Note: When a firm makes excess profits they sometimes pay them out as special dividends. Special dividends are just like ordinary dividends but they are one-off and investors do not expect them to continue, unlike ordinary dividends which are expected to persist.

A pharmaceutical firm has just discovered a valuable new drug. So far the news has been kept a secret.

The net present value of making and commercialising the drug is $200 million, but $600 million of bonds will need to be issued to fund the project and buy the necessary plant and equipment.

The firm will release the news of the discovery and bond raising to shareholders simultaneously in the same announcement. The bonds will be issued shortly after.

Once the announcement is made and the bonds are issued, what is the expected increase in the value of the firm's assets (ΔV), market capitalisation of debt (ΔD) and market cap of equity (ΔE)?

The triangle symbol is the Greek letter capital delta which means change or increase in mathematics.

Ignore the benefit of interest tax shields from having more debt.

Remember: ##ΔV = ΔD+ΔE##

One year ago you bought a $1,000,000 house partly funded using a mortgage loan. The loan size was $800,000 and the other $200,000 was your wealth or 'equity' in the house asset.

The interest rate on the home loan was 4% pa.

Over the year, the house produced a net rental yield of 2% pa and a capital gain of 2.5% pa.

Assuming that all cash flows (interest payments and net rental payments) were paid and received at the end of the year, and all rates are given as effective annual rates, what was the total return on your wealth over the past year?

Hint: Remember that wealth in this context is your equity (E) in the house asset (V = D+E) which is funded by the loan (D) and your deposit or equity (E).

The following quotes are most closely related to which financial concept?

• “Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work” -Thomas Edison
• “The only place where success comes before work is in the dictionary” -Vidal Sassoon
• “The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it in your pocket” - Kin Hubbard

A firm conducts a two-for-one stock split. Which of the following consequences would NOT be expected?

Which of the following statements about probability distributions is NOT correct?

The market expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to increase the policy rate by 25 basis points at their next meeting.

Then unexpectedly, the RBA announce that they will increase the policy rate by 50 basis points due to high future GDP and inflation forecasts.

What do you expect to happen to Australia's exchange rate in the short term? The Australian dollar will:

The Chinese government attempts to fix its exchange rate against the US dollar and at the same time use monetary policy to fix its interest rate at a set level.

To be able to fix its exchange rate and interest rate in this way, what does the Chinese government actually do?

1. Adopts capital controls to prevent financial arbitrage by private firms and individuals.
2. Adopts the same interest rate (monetary policy) as the United States.
3. Fixes inflation so that the domestic real interest rate is equal to the United States' real interest rate.

Which of the above statements is or are true?