A company announces that it will pay a dividend, as the market expected. The company's shares trade on the stock exchange which is open from 10am in the morning to 4pm in the afternoon each weekday. When would the share price be expected to fall by the amount of the dividend? Ignore taxes.
The share price is expected to fall during the:
Question 721 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate
Fred owns some Commonwealth Bank (CBA) shares. He has calculated CBA’s monthly returns for each month in the past 20 years using this formula:
###r_\text{t monthly}=\ln \left( \dfrac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} \right)###He then took the arithmetic average and found it to be 1% per month using this formula:
###\bar{r}_\text{monthly}= \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( r_\text{t monthly} \right)} }{T} =0.01=1\% \text{ per month}###He also found the standard deviation of these monthly returns which was 5% per month:
###\sigma_\text{monthly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( \left( r_\text{t monthly} - \bar{r}_\text{monthly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} =0.05=5\%\text{ per month}###Which of the below statements about Fred’s CBA shares is NOT correct? Assume that the past historical average return is the true population average of future expected returns.
Question 722 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate
Here is a table of stock prices and returns. Which of the statements below the table is NOT correct?
| Price and Return Population Statistics | ||||
| Time | Prices | LGDR | GDR | NDR |
| 0 | 100 | |||
| 1 | 50 | -0.6931 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| 2 | 100 | 0.6931 | 2 | 1 |
| Arithmetic average | 0 | 1.25 | 0.25 | |
| Arithmetic standard deviation | 0.9802 | 1.0607 | 1.0607 | |
Question 319 foreign exchange rate, monetary policy, American and European terms
Investors expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep the policy rate steady at their next meeting.
Then unexpectedly, the RBA announce that they will increase the policy rate by 25 basis points due to fears that the economy is growing too fast and that inflation will be above their target rate of 2 to 3 per cent.
What do you expect to happen to Australia's exchange rate in the short term? The Australian dollar is likely to:
Question 321 foreign exchange rate, monetary policy, American and European terms
The market expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to increase the policy rate by 25 basis points at their next meeting.
Then unexpectedly, the RBA announce that they will increase the policy rate by 50 basis points due to high future GDP and inflation forecasts.
What do you expect to happen to Australia's exchange rate in the short term? The Australian dollar will:
The saying "buy low, sell high" suggests that investors should make a:
One and a half years ago Frank bought a house for $600,000. Now it's worth only $500,000, based on recent similar sales in the area.
The expected total return on Frank's residential property is 7% pa.
He rents his house out for $1,600 per month, paid in advance. Every 12 months he plans to increase the rental payments.
The present value of 12 months of rental payments is $18,617.27.
The future value of 12 months of rental payments one year in the future is $19,920.48.
What is the expected annual rental yield of the property? Ignore the costs of renting such as maintenance, real estate agent fees and so on.
Question 732 real and nominal returns and cash flows, inflation, income and capital returns
An investor bought a bond for $100 (at t=0) and one year later it paid its annual coupon of $1 (at t=1). Just after the coupon was paid, the bond price was $100.50 (at t=1). Inflation over the past year (from t=0 to t=1) was 3% pa, given as an effective annual rate.
Which of the following statements is NOT correct? The bond investment produced a:
Which of the following statements about book and market equity is NOT correct?
The expression 'you have to spend money to make money' relates to which business decision?
Your friend overheard that you need some cash and asks if you would like to borrow some money. She can lend you $5,000 now (t=0), and in return she wants you to pay her back $1,000 in two years (t=2) and every year after that for the next 5 years, so there will be 6 payments of $1,000 from t=2 to t=7 inclusive.
What is the net present value (NPV) of borrowing from your friend?
Assume that banks loan funds at interest rates of 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate.
The following equation is the Dividend Discount Model, also known as the 'Gordon Growth Model' or the 'Perpetuity with growth' equation.
### p_0 = \frac{d_1}{r - g} ###
Which expression is NOT equal to the expected dividend yield?
Question 50 DDM, stock pricing, inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows
Most listed Australian companies pay dividends twice per year, the 'interim' and 'final' dividends, which are roughly 6 months apart.
You are an equities analyst trying to value the company BHP. You decide to use the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) as a starting point, so you study BHP's dividend history and you find that BHP tends to pay the same interim and final dividend each year, and that both grow by the same rate.
You expect BHP will pay a $0.55 interim dividend in six months and a $0.55 final dividend in one year. You expect each to grow by 4% next year and forever, so the interim and final dividends next year will be $0.572 each, and so on in perpetuity.
Assume BHP's cost of equity is 8% pa. All rates are quoted as nominal effective rates. The dividends are nominal cash flows and the inflation rate is 2.5% pa.
What is the current price of a BHP share?
Question 535 DDM, real and nominal returns and cash flows, stock pricing
You are an equities analyst trying to value the equity of the Australian telecoms company Telstra, with ticker TLS. In Australia, listed companies like Telstra tend to pay dividends every 6 months. The payment around August is called the final dividend and the payment around February is called the interim dividend. Both occur annually.
- Today is mid-March 2015.
- TLS's last interim dividend of $0.15 was one month ago in mid-February 2015.
- TLS's last final dividend of $0.15 was seven months ago in mid-August 2014.
Judging by TLS's dividend history and prospects, you estimate that the nominal dividend growth rate will be 1% pa. Assume that TLS's total nominal cost of equity is 6% pa. The dividends are nominal cash flows and the inflation rate is 2.5% pa. All rates are quoted as nominal effective annual rates. Assume that each month is exactly one twelfth (1/12) of a year, so you can ignore the number of days in each month.
Calculate the current TLS share price.
A stock is expected to pay a dividend of $15 in one year (t=1), then $25 for 9 years after that (payments at t=2 ,3,...10), and on the 11th year (t=11) the dividend will be 2% less than at t=10, and will continue to shrink at the same rate every year after that forever. The required return of the stock is 10%. All rates are effective annual rates.
What is the price of the stock now?
You own a nice suit which you wear once per week on nights out. You bought it one year ago for $600. In your experience, suits used once per week last for 6 years. So you expect yours to last for another 5 years.
Your younger brother said that retro is back in style so he wants to wants to borrow your suit once a week when he goes out. With the increased use, your suit will only last for another 4 years rather than 5.
What is the present value of the cost of letting your brother use your current suit for the next 4 years?
Assume: that bank interest rates are 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate; you will buy a new suit when your current one wears out and your brother will not use the new one; your brother will only use your current suit so he will only use it for the next four years; and the price of a new suit never changes.
You own some nice shoes which you use once per week on date nights. You bought them 2 years ago for $500. In your experience, shoes used once per week last for 6 years. So you expect yours to last for another 4 years.
Your younger sister said that she wants to borrow your shoes once per week. With the increased use, your shoes will only last for another 2 years rather than 4.
What is the present value of the cost of letting your sister use your current shoes for the next 2 years?
Assume: that bank interest rates are 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate; you will buy a new pair of shoes when your current pair wears out and your sister will not use the new ones; your sister will only use your current shoes so she will only use it for the next 2 years; and the price of new shoes never changes.
An industrial chicken farmer grows chickens for their meat. Chickens:
- Cost $0.50 each to buy as chicks. They are bought on the day they’re born, at t=0.
- Grow at a rate of $0.70 worth of meat per chicken per week for the first 6 weeks (t=0 to t=6).
- Grow at a rate of $0.40 worth of meat per chicken per week for the next 4 weeks (t=6 to t=10) since they’re older and grow more slowly.
- Feed costs are $0.30 per chicken per week for their whole life. Chicken feed is bought and fed to the chickens once per week at the beginning of the week. So the first amount of feed bought for a chicken at t=0 costs $0.30, and so on.
- Can be slaughtered (killed for their meat) and sold at no cost at the end of the week. The price received for the chicken is their total value of meat (note that the chicken grows fast then slow, see above).
The required return of the chicken farm is 0.5% given as an effective weekly rate.
Ignore taxes and the fixed costs of the factory. Ignore the chicken’s welfare and other environmental and ethical concerns.
Find the equivalent weekly cash flow of slaughtering a chicken at 6 weeks and at 10 weeks so the farmer can figure out the best time to slaughter his chickens. The choices below are given in the same order, 6 and 10 weeks.
On his 20th birthday, a man makes a resolution. He will deposit $30 into a bank account at the end of every month starting from now, which is the start of the month. So the first payment will be in one month. He will write in his will that when he dies the money in the account should be given to charity.
The bank account pays interest at 6% pa compounding monthly, which is not expected to change.
If the man lives for another 60 years, how much money will be in the bank account if he dies just after making his last (720th) payment?
You just borrowed $400,000 in the form of a 25 year interest-only mortgage with monthly payments of $3,000 per month. The interest rate is 9% pa which is not expected to change.
You actually plan to pay more than the required interest payment. You plan to pay $3,300 in mortgage payments every month, which your mortgage lender allows. These extra payments will reduce the principal and the minimum interest payment required each month.
At the maturity of the mortgage, what will be the principal? That is, after the last (300th) interest payment of $3,300 in 25 years, how much will be owing on the mortgage?
Question 239 income and capital returns, inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows, interest only loan
A bank grants a borrower an interest-only residential mortgage loan with a very large 50% deposit and a nominal interest rate of 6% that is not expected to change. Assume that inflation is expected to be a constant 2% pa over the life of the loan. Ignore credit risk.
From the bank's point of view, what is the long term expected nominal capital return of the loan asset?
Calculate the price of a newly issued ten year bond with a face value of $100, a yield of 8% pa and a fixed coupon rate of 6% pa, paid semi-annually. So there are two coupons per year, paid in arrears every six months.
"Buy low, sell high" is a phrase commonly heard in financial markets. It states that traders should try to buy assets at low prices and sell at high prices.
Traders in the fixed-coupon bond markets often quote promised bond yields rather than prices. Fixed-coupon bond traders should try to:
Question 48 IRR, NPV, bond pricing, premium par and discount bonds, market efficiency
The theory of fixed interest bond pricing is an application of the theory of Net Present Value (NPV). Also, a 'fairly priced' asset is not over- or under-priced. Buying or selling a fairly priced asset has an NPV of zero.
Considering this, which of the following statements is NOT correct?
The theory of fixed interest bond pricing is an application of the theory of Net Present Value (NPV). Also, a 'fairly priced' asset is not over- or under-priced. Buying or selling a fairly priced asset has an NPV of zero.
Considering this, which of the following statements is NOT correct?
A bond maturing in 10 years has a coupon rate of 4% pa, paid semi-annually. The bond's yield is currently 6% pa. The face value of the bond is $100. What is its price?
Let the 'income return' of a bond be the coupon at the end of the period divided by the market price now at the start of the period ##(C_1/P_0)##. The expected income return of a premium fixed coupon bond is:
An investor bought two fixed-coupon bonds issued by the same company, a zero-coupon bond and a 7% pa semi-annual coupon bond. Both bonds have a face value of $1,000, mature in 10 years, and had a yield at the time of purchase of 8% pa.
A few years later, yields fell to 6% pa. Which of the following statements is correct? Note that a capital gain is an increase in price.
In these tough economic times, central banks around the world have cut interest rates so low that they are practically zero. In some countries, government bond yields are also very close to zero.
A three year government bond with a face value of $100 and a coupon rate of 2% pa paid semi-annually was just issued at a yield of 0%. What is the price of the bond?
Below are some statements about loans and bonds. The first descriptive sentence is correct. But one of the second sentences about the loans' or bonds' prices is not correct. Which statement is NOT correct? Assume that interest rates are positive.
Note that coupons or interest payments are the periodic payments made throughout a bond or loan's life. The face or par value of a bond or loan is the amount paid at the end when the debt matures.
Your main expense is fuel for your car which costs $100 per month. You just refueled, so you won't need any more fuel for another month (first payment at t=1 month).
You have $2,500 in a bank account which pays interest at a rate of 6% pa, payable monthly. Interest rates are not expected to change.
Assuming that you have no income, in how many months time will you not have enough money to fully refuel your car?
What is the net present value (NPV) of undertaking a full-time Australian undergraduate business degree as an Australian citizen? Only include the cash flows over the duration of the degree, ignore any benefits or costs of the degree after it's completed.
Assume the following:
- The degree takes 3 years to complete and all students pass all subjects.
- There are 2 semesters per year and 4 subjects per semester.
- University fees per subject per semester are $1,277, paid at the start of each semester. Fees are expected to remain constant in real terms for the next 3 years.
- There are 52 weeks per year.
- The first semester is just about to start (t=0). The first semester lasts for 19 weeks (t=0 to 19).
- The second semester starts immediately afterwards (t=19) and lasts for another 19 weeks (t=19 to 38).
- The summer holidays begin after the second semester ends and last for 14 weeks (t=38 to 52). Then the first semester begins the next year, and so on.
- Working full time at the grocery store instead of studying full-time pays $20/hr and you can work 35 hours per week. Wages are paid at the end of each week and are expected to remain constant in real terms.
- Full-time students can work full-time during the summer holiday at the grocery store for the same rate of $20/hr for 35 hours per week.
- The discount rate is 9.8% pa. All rates and cash flows are real. Inflation is expected to be 3% pa. All rates are effective annual.
The NPV of costs from undertaking the university degree is:
Find Sidebar Corporation's Cash Flow From Assets (CFFA), also known as Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF), over the year ending 30th June 2013.
| Sidebar Corp | ||
| Income Statement for | ||
| year ending 30th June 2013 | ||
| $m | ||
| Sales | 405 | |
| COGS | 100 | |
| Depreciation | 34 | |
| Rent expense | 22 | |
| Interest expense | 39 | |
| Taxable Income | 210 | |
| Taxes at 30% | 63 | |
| Net income | 147 | |
| Sidebar Corp | ||
| Balance Sheet | ||
| as at 30th June | 2013 | 2012 |
| $m | $m | |
| Cash | 0 | 0 |
| Inventory | 70 | 50 |
| Trade debtors | 11 | 16 |
| Rent paid in advance | 4 | 3 |
| PPE | 700 | 680 |
| Total assets | 785 | 749 |
| Trade creditors | 11 | 19 |
| Bond liabilities | 400 | 390 |
| Contributed equity | 220 | 220 |
| Retained profits | 154 | 120 |
| Total L and OE | 785 | 749 |
Note: All figures are given in millions of dollars ($m).
The cash flow from assets was:
Why is Capital Expenditure (CapEx) subtracted in the Cash Flow From Assets (CFFA) formula?
###CFFA=NI+Depr-CapEx - \Delta NWC+IntExp###
Find the cash flow from assets (CFFA) of the following project.
| Project Data | ||
| Project life | 2 years | |
| Initial investment in equipment | $6m | |
| Depreciation of equipment per year for tax purposes | $1m | |
| Unit sales per year | 4m | |
| Sale price per unit | $8 | |
| Variable cost per unit | $3 | |
| Fixed costs per year, paid at the end of each year | $1.5m | |
| Tax rate | 30% | |
Note 1: The equipment will have a book value of $4m at the end of the project for tax purposes. However, the equipment is expected to fetch $0.9 million when it is sold at t=2.
Note 2: Due to the project, the firm will have to purchase $0.8m of inventory initially, which it will sell at t=1. The firm will buy another $0.8m at t=1 and sell it all again at t=2 with zero inventory left. The project will have no effect on the firm's current liabilities.
Find the project's CFFA at time zero, one and two. Answers are given in millions of dollars ($m).
Value the following business project to manufacture a new product.
| Project Data | ||
| Project life | 2 yrs | |
| Initial investment in equipment | $6m | |
| Depreciation of equipment per year | $3m | |
| Expected sale price of equipment at end of project | $0.6m | |
| Unit sales per year | 4m | |
| Sale price per unit | $8 | |
| Variable cost per unit | $5 | |
| Fixed costs per year, paid at the end of each year | $1m | |
| Interest expense per year | 0 | |
| Tax rate | 30% | |
| Weighted average cost of capital after tax per annum | 10% | |
Notes
- The firm's current assets and current liabilities are $3m and $2m respectively right now. This net working capital will not be used in this project, it will be used in other unrelated projects.
Due to the project, current assets (mostly inventory) will grow by $2m initially (at t = 0), and then by $0.2m at the end of the first year (t=1).
Current liabilities (mostly trade creditors) will increase by $0.1m at the end of the first year (t=1).
At the end of the project, the net working capital accumulated due to the project can be sold for the same price that it was bought. - The project cost $0.5m to research which was incurred one year ago.
Assumptions
- All cash flows occur at the start or end of the year as appropriate, not in the middle or throughout the year.
- All rates and cash flows are real. The inflation rate is 3% pa.
- All rates are given as effective annual rates.
- The business considering the project is run as a 'sole tradership' (run by an individual without a company) and is therefore eligible for a 50% capital gains tax discount when the equipment is sold, as permitted by the Australian Tax Office.
What is the expected net present value (NPV) of the project?
Your friend just bought a house for $1,000,000. He financed it using a $900,000 mortgage loan and a deposit of $100,000.
In the context of residential housing and mortgages, the 'equity' or 'net wealth' tied up in a house is the value of the house less the value of the mortgage loan. Assuming that your friend's only asset is his house, his net wealth is $100,000.
If house prices suddenly fall by 15%, what would be your friend's percentage change in net wealth?
Assume that:
- No income (rent) was received from the house during the short time over which house prices fell.
- Your friend will not declare bankruptcy, he will always pay off his debts.
A method commonly seen in textbooks for calculating a levered firm's free cash flow (FFCF, or CFFA) is the following:
###\begin{aligned} FFCF &= (Rev - COGS - Depr - FC - IntExp)(1-t_c) + \\ &\space\space\space+ Depr - CapEx -\Delta NWC + IntExp(1-t_c) \\ \end{aligned}###
Question 413 CFFA, interest tax shield, depreciation tax shield
There are many ways to calculate a firm's free cash flow (FFCF), also called cash flow from assets (CFFA).
One method is to use the following formulas to transform net income (NI) into FFCF including interest and depreciation tax shields:
###FFCF=NI + Depr - CapEx -ΔNWC + IntExp###
###NI=(Rev - COGS - Depr - FC - IntExp).(1-t_c )###
Another popular method is to use EBITDA rather than net income. EBITDA is defined as:
###EBITDA=Rev - COGS - FC###
One of the below formulas correctly calculates FFCF from EBITDA, including interest and depreciation tax shields, giving an identical answer to that above. Which formula is correct?
A firm has a debt-to-assets ratio of 50%. The firm then issues a large amount of debt to raise money for new projects of similar market risk to the company's existing projects. Assume a classical tax system. Which statement is correct?
Question 241 Miller and Modigliani, leverage, payout policy, diversification, NPV
One of Miller and Modigliani's (M&M's) important insights is that a firm's managers should not try to achieve a particular level of leverage in a world with zero taxes and perfect information since investors can make their own leverage. Therefore corporate capital structure policy is irrelevant since investors can achieve their own desired leverage at the personal level by borrowing or lending on their own.
This principal of 'home-made' or 'do-it-yourself' leverage can also be applied to other topics. Read the following statements to decide which are true:
(I) Payout policy: a firm's managers should not try to achieve a particular pattern of equity payout.
(II) Agency costs: a firm's managers should not try to minimise agency costs.
(III) Diversification: a firm's managers should not try to diversify across industries.
(IV) Shareholder wealth: a firm's managers should not try to maximise shareholders' wealth.
Which of the above statement(s) are true?
Question 559 variance, standard deviation, covariance, correlation
Which of the following statements about standard statistical mathematics notation is NOT correct?
All things remaining equal, the variance of a portfolio of two positively-weighted stocks rises as:
| Portfolio Details | ||||||
| Stock | Expected return |
Standard deviation |
Correlation ##(\rho_{A,B})## | Dollars invested |
||
| A | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 60 | ||
| B | 0.2 | 0.6 | 140 | |||
What is the standard deviation (not variance) of returns of the above portfolio?
Two risky stocks A and B comprise an equal-weighted portfolio. The correlation between the stocks' returns is 70%.
If the variance of stock A's returns increases but the:
- Prices and expected returns of each stock stays the same,
- Variance of stock B's returns stays the same,
- Correlation of returns between the stocks stays the same.
Which of the following statements is NOT correct?
All things remaining equal, the higher the correlation of returns between two stocks:
What is the correlation of a variable X with itself?
The corr(X, X) or ##\rho_{X,X}## equals:
What is the correlation of a variable X with a constant C?
The corr(X, C) or ##\rho_{X,C}## equals:
The covariance and correlation of two stocks X and Y's annual returns are calculated over a number of years. The units of the returns are in percent per annum ##(\% pa)##.
What are the units of the covariance ##(\sigma_{X,Y})## and correlation ##(\rho_{X,Y})## of returns respectively?
Hint: Visit Wikipedia to understand the difference between percentage points ##(\text{pp})## and percent ##(\%)##.
Let the standard deviation of returns for a share per month be ##\sigma_\text{monthly}##.
What is the formula for the standard deviation of the share's returns per year ##(\sigma_\text{yearly})##?
Assume that returns are independently and identically distributed (iid) so they have zero auto correlation, meaning that if the return was higher than average today, it does not indicate that the return tomorrow will be higher or lower than average.
A fairly priced stock has an expected return equal to the market's. Treasury bonds yield 5% pa and the market portfolio's expected return is 10% pa. What is the stock's beta?
Stock A has a beta of 0.5 and stock B has a beta of 1. Which statement is NOT correct?
Assets A, B, M and ##r_f## are shown on the graphs above. Asset M is the market portfolio and ##r_f## is the risk free yield on government bonds. Assume that investors can borrow and lend at the risk free rate. Which of the below statements is NOT correct?
A firm changes its capital structure by issuing a large amount of equity and using the funds to repay debt. Its assets are unchanged. Ignore interest tax shields.
According to the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which statement is correct?
The CAPM can be used to find a business's expected opportunity cost of capital:
###r_i=r_f+β_i (r_m-r_f)###
What should be used as the risk free rate ##r_f##?
Question 418 capital budgeting, NPV, interest tax shield, WACC, CFFA, CAPM
| Project Data | ||
| Project life | 1 year | |
| Initial investment in equipment | $8m | |
| Depreciation of equipment per year | $8m | |
| Expected sale price of equipment at end of project | 0 | |
| Unit sales per year | 4m | |
| Sale price per unit | $10 | |
| Variable cost per unit | $5 | |
| Fixed costs per year, paid at the end of each year | $2m | |
| Interest expense in first year (at t=1) | $0.562m | |
| Corporate tax rate | 30% | |
| Government treasury bond yield | 5% | |
| Bank loan debt yield | 9% | |
| Market portfolio return | 10% | |
| Covariance of levered equity returns with market | 0.32 | |
| Variance of market portfolio returns | 0.16 | |
| Firm's and project's debt-to-equity ratio | 50% | |
Notes
- Due to the project, current assets will increase by $6m now (t=0) and fall by $6m at the end (t=1). Current liabilities will not be affected.
Assumptions
- The debt-to-equity ratio will be kept constant throughout the life of the project. The amount of interest expense at the end of each period has been correctly calculated to maintain this constant debt-to-equity ratio.
- Millions are represented by 'm'.
- All cash flows occur at the start or end of the year as appropriate, not in the middle or throughout the year.
- All rates and cash flows are real. The inflation rate is 2% pa. All rates are given as effective annual rates.
- The project is undertaken by a firm, not an individual.
What is the net present value (NPV) of the project?
Question 119 market efficiency, fundamental analysis, joint hypothesis problem
Your friend claims that by reading 'The Economist' magazine's economic news articles, she can identify shares that will have positive abnormal expected returns over the next 2 years. Assuming that her claim is true, which statement(s) are correct?
(i) Weak form market efficiency is broken.
(ii) Semi-strong form market efficiency is broken.
(iii) Strong form market efficiency is broken.
(iv) The asset pricing model used to measure the abnormal returns (such as the CAPM) is either wrong (mis-specification error) or is measured using the wrong inputs (data errors) so the returns may not be abnormal but rather fair for the level of risk.
Select the most correct response:
Question 338 market efficiency, CAPM, opportunity cost, technical analysis
A man inherits $500,000 worth of shares.
He believes that by learning the secrets of trading, keeping up with the financial news and doing complex trend analysis with charts that he can quit his job and become a self-employed day trader in the equities markets.
What is the expected gain from doing this over the first year? Measure the net gain in wealth received at the end of this first year due to the decision to become a day trader. Assume the following:
- He earns $60,000 pa in his current job, paid in a lump sum at the end of each year.
- He enjoys examining share price graphs and day trading just as much as he enjoys his current job.
- Stock markets are weak form and semi-strong form efficient.
- He has no inside information.
- He makes 1 trade every day and there are 250 trading days in the year. Trading costs are $20 per trade. His broker invoices him for the trading costs at the end of the year.
- The shares that he currently owns and the shares that he intends to trade have the same level of systematic risk as the market portfolio.
- The market portfolio's expected return is 10% pa.
Measure the net gain over the first year as an expected wealth increase at the end of the year.