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Question 357  PE ratio, Multiples valuation

Which of the following investable assets are NOT suitable for valuation using PE multiples techniques?



Question 749  Multiples valuation, PE ratio, price to revenue ratio, price to book ratio, NPV

A real estate agent says that the price of a house in Sydney Australia is approximately equal to the gross weekly rent times 1000.

What type of valuation method is the real estate agent using?



Question 935  real estate, NPV, perpetuity with growth, multi stage growth model, DDM

You're thinking of buying an investment property that costs $1,000,000. The property's rent revenue over the next year is expected to be $50,000 pa and rent expenses are $20,000 pa, so net rent cash flow is $30,000. Assume that net rent is paid annually in arrears, so this next expected net rent cash flow of $30,000 is paid one year from now.

The year after, net rent is expected to fall by 2% pa. So net rent at year 2 is expected to be $29,400 (=30,000*(1-0.02)^1).

The year after that, net rent is expected to rise by 1% pa. So net rent at year 3 is expected to be $29,694 (=30,000*(1-0.02)^1*(1+0.01)^1).

From year 3 onwards, net rent is expected to rise at 2.5% pa forever. So net rent at year 4 is expected to be $30,436.35 (=30,000*(1-0.02)^1*(1+0.01)^1*(1+0.025)^1).

Assume that the total required return on your investment property is 6% pa. Ignore taxes. All returns are given as effective annual rates.

What is the net present value (NPV) of buying the investment property?



Question 990  Multiples valuation, EV to EBITDA ratio, enterprise value

A firm has:

2 million shares;

$200 million EBITDA expected over the next year;

$100 million in cash (not included in EV);

1/3 market debt-to-assets ratio is (market assets = EV + cash);

4% pa expected dividend yield over the next year, paid annually with the next dividend expected in one year;

2% pa expected dividend growth rate;

40% expected payout ratio over the next year;

10 times EV/EBITDA ratio.

30% corporate tax rate.

The stock can be valued using the EV/EBITDA multiple, dividend discount model, Gordon growth model or PE multiple. Which of the below statements is NOT correct based on an EV/EBITDA multiple valuation?



Question 1048  duration, sensitivity analysis, WACC

Canaccord conducts a sensitivity analysis of the Israeli pharmaceutical firm InterCure's (INCR) estimated share price in figure 33 on page 30:

Canaccord2021_INCR_SensitivityAnalysis_Page30_Figure33

https://canaccordgenuity.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=a555719b-412b-4cc7-8528-505c27fb1e82&mime=PDF&co=Canaccordgenuity&id=mbottomley@cgf.com&source=libraryview&htmlToPdf=ture

Estimate the Macaulay duration of INCR's equity. The Macaulay duration is approximately:



Question 1000  duration, duration of a perpetuity with growth, needs refinement

An unlevered firm cuts its dividends and re-invests in zero-NPV projects with the same risk as its existing projects. This decreases the dividend yield, but increases the firm's equity's dividend growth rate and duration, while its total required return on equity remains unchanged. The equity can be valued as a perpetuity and the duration of a perpetuity is given below:

###D_\text{Macaulay} = \dfrac{1+r}{r-g}###

What will be the effect on the stock's CAPM beta? Assume that there's no change in the risk free rate or market risk premium. The company's equity beta will:



Question 841  gross domestic product, government spending

The government spends money on:

  • Goods and services such as defence, police, schools, hospitals and roads; and
  • Transfer payments (also called welfare) such as the pension, dole, disability support and student support.

When calculating GDP (=C+I+G+X-M), the ‘government spending’ component (G) is supposed to include:



Question 1037  gross domestic product, no explanation

What effect is being referred to in the following quote from the MARTIN model description?  

Economy-wide models also account for feedback between economic variables. For example, an increase in aggregate demand will encourage firms to hire more workers, which raises employment and lowers the unemployment rate. The tightening of the labour market is likely to lead to an increase in wages growth. The resulting increase in household incomes is likely to lead to an increase in consumption, further raising aggregate demand. (Ballantyne et al, 2019)

The name of the effect being referred to is:



Question 1013  book build, initial public offering, capital raising, demand schedule

A firm is floating its stock in an IPO and its underwriter has received the following bids, listed in order from highest to lowest share price:

IPO Book Build Bids
Bidders Share price Number of shares
  $/share millions
BidderA 2.5 2
BidderB 2 1.5
BidderC 1.5 4
BidderD 1 3
BidderE 0.5 2
 

 

Suppose that the firm's owner wishes to sell all of their 8 million shares, so no new money will be raised and no money will re-invested back into the firm. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?



Question 566  capital structure, capital raising, rights issue, on market repurchase, dividend, stock split, bonus issue

A company's share price fell by 20% and its number of shares rose by 25%. Assume that there are no taxes, no signalling effects and no transaction costs.

Which one of the following corporate events may have happened?



Question 625  dividend re-investment plan, capital raising

Which of the following statements about dividend re-investment plans (DRP's) is NOT correct?



Question 788  rights issue, capital raising

A firm wishes to raise $100 million now. The firm's current market value of equity is $300m and the market price per share is $5. They estimate that they'll be able to issue shares in a rights issue at a subscription price of $4. All answers are rounded to 6 decimal places. Ignore the time value of money and assume that all shareholders exercise their rights. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?



Question 1012  moral hazard, principal agent problem, asymmetric information

When does the ‘principal-agent problem’ occur? Is it when:

I. The principal has conflicting incentives (moral hazard);

II. The agent has conflicting incentives (moral hazard);

III. The principal has incomplete information about the agent (asymmetric information); or

IV. The agent has incomplete information about the principal (asymmetric information)?

The principal-agent problem occurs when the following statements are true:



Question 1009  lemons problem, asymmetric information, adverse selection

Akerlof’s 1970 paper ‘The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism’ provides a famous example of asymmetric information leading to market failure. This example is commonly known as the ‘Lemons Problem’. Imagine that half of all second hand cars are:

  • Lemons worth $5,000 each. Lemons are bad second-hand cars with hidden faults that only the seller knows about; and the other half are
  • Plums worth $10,000 each. Plums are good second-hand cars without faults.

Car buyers can’t tell the difference between lemon and plum cars.

Car sellers know whether their car is a lemon or a plum since they’ve driven the car for a long time. However, plum car owners cannot prove their cars’ higher quality to buyers. Also, lemon car owners are known to dis-honestly claim that their cars are plums.

What will be the market price of second hand cars?



Question 1044  leverage, capital structure, beta

A levered firm has only 2 assets on its balance sheet with the below market values and CAPM betas. The risk free rate is 3% pa and the market risk premium is 5% pa. Assume that the CAPM is correct and all assets are fairly priced.

Balance Sheet Market Values and Betas
Balance sheet item Market value ($m) Beta
Cash asset 0.5 0
Truck assets 0.5 2
Loan liabilities 0.25 0.1
Equity funding ? ?
 

 

Which of the following statements is NOT correct?



Question 344  CFFA, capital budgeting

A new company's Firm Free Cash Flow (FFCF, same as CFFA) is forecast in the graph below.

Image of option graphs

To value the firm's assets, the terminal value needs to be calculated using the perpetuity with growth formula:

###V_{\text{terminal, }t-1} = \dfrac{FFCF_{\text{terminal, }t}}{r-g}###

Which point corresponds to the best time to calculate the terminal value?



Question 773  CFFA, WACC, interest tax shield, DDM

Use the below information to value a levered company with constant annual perpetual cash flows from assets. The next cash flow will be generated in one year from now, so a perpetuity can be used to value this firm. Both the operating and firm free cash flows are constant (but not equal to each other).

Data on a Levered Firm with Perpetual Cash Flows
Item abbreviation Value Item full name
##\text{OFCF}## $48.5m Operating free cash flow
##\text{FFCF or CFFA}## $50m Firm free cash flow or cash flow from assets
##g## 0% pa Growth rate of OFCF and FFCF
##\text{WACC}_\text{BeforeTax}## 10% pa Weighted average cost of capital before tax
##\text{WACC}_\text{AfterTax}## 9.7% pa Weighted average cost of capital after tax
##r_\text{D}## 5% pa Cost of debt
##r_\text{EL}## 11.25% pa Cost of levered equity
##D/V_L## 20% pa Debt to assets ratio, where the asset value includes tax shields
##t_c## 30% Corporate tax rate
 

 

What is the value of the levered firm including interest tax shields?



Question 1023  monetary policy, inflation, breakeven inflation rate

If the breakeven inflation rate was far above the US Fed's long term 2% average inflation target, the Fed would be expected to:



Question 1025  real and nominal returns and cash flows

What proportion of managers are evaluating projects correctly, based on table 8 from Meier and Tarhan's (2006) survey of corporate managers?

Table 8: Consistency of nominal or real hurdle rates and cash flows
Hurdle rate Cash flows Total
Nominal Real
Nominal 29.8% 11.6% 41.3%
Real 19.8% 38.4% 58.7%
Total 49.6% 50.4% 100.0%
 

 

Table 8 footnote: The rows in this cross-tabulation show whether the firm uses a nominal or real hurdle rate, the columns indicate whether cash flows are calculated in nominal or real terms. The fractions denote the number of firms for each combination relative to the total of 123 respondents that responded to both separate survey questions.

What proportion of managers are evaluating projects correctly?



Question 1026  CFFA, WACC, interest tax shield

Meier and Tarhan (2006) conducted an interesting survey of corporate managers. The results are copied in Table 7 below. What proportion of managers are evaluating levered projects correctly?

Table 7: Consistency between hurdle rate and the calculation of cash flows
Hurdle rate Cash flow calculation (see below notes)  
(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) Other Total
WACC 11.3% 34.8% 1.7% 3.5% 18.3% 1.7% 71.3%
Equity levered 0.0% 2.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9% 0.9% 6.1%
Equity unlevered 1.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.9% 1.7% 0.9% 7.8%
Other 2.6% 5.2% 1.7% 0.9% 3.5% 0.9% 14.8%
Total 16.5% 44.4% 5.2% 5.2% 24.4% 4.4% 100.0%
 

 

The rows of the cross-tabulation indicate what the self-reported hurdle rate represents and the columns denote five different ways to calculate cash flows, (i) to (v), plus the “other” category. Each cell then displays the fraction of all 113 respondents for a given combination of what the hurdle rate represents and how the firm calculates its cash flows when evaluating a project.

The definitions of the cash flow calculations (i)-(v) are as follows:

(i) Earnings before interest and after taxes (EBIAT) + depreciation

(ii) Earnings before interest and after taxes (EBIAT) + depreciation – capital expenditures – net change in working capital

(iii) Earnings

(iv) Earnings + depreciation

(v) Earnings + depreciation – capital expenditures – net change in working capital

Assume that the WACC is after tax, the required return on unlevered equity is the WACC before tax, all projects are levered, the benefit of interest tax shields should be included in the valuation, earnings = net profit after tax (NPAT) and EBIAT = EBIT*(1-tc) which is often also called net operating profit after tax (NOPAT).

What proportion of managers are evaluating levered projects correctly?



Question 1007  WACC, leverage, CFFA, EFCF

An analyst is valuing a levered company whose owners insist on keeping the dollar amount of debt funding fixed. So the company cannot issue or repay its debt, its dollar value must remain constant. Any funding gaps will be met with equity.

The analyst is wondering, as he changes inputs into his valuation, such as the forecast growth rate of sales, then asset values and other things will change. This makes it hard to figure out which values can be held constant and would therefore make good model inputs, rather than outputs which vary depending on the inputs. Assume that the cost of debt (yield) remains constant and the company’s asset beta will also remain constant since any expansion (or downsize) will involve buying (or selling) more of the same assets.

Which of the following values can be assumed to stay constant when projected sales growth increases?



Question 273  CFFA, capital budgeting

Value the following business project to manufacture a new product.

Project Data
Project life 2 yrs
Initial investment in equipment $6m
Depreciation of equipment per year $3m
Expected sale price of equipment at end of project $0.6m
Unit sales per year 4m
Sale price per unit $8
Variable cost per unit $5
Fixed costs per year, paid at the end of each year $1m
Interest expense per year 0
Tax rate 30%
Weighted average cost of capital after tax per annum 10%
 

Notes

  1. The firm's current assets and current liabilities are $3m and $2m respectively right now. This net working capital will not be used in this project, it will be used in other unrelated projects.
    Due to the project, current assets (mostly inventory) will grow by $2m initially (at t = 0), and then by $0.2m at the end of the first year (t=1).
    Current liabilities (mostly trade creditors) will increase by $0.1m at the end of the first year (t=1).
    At the end of the project, the net working capital accumulated due to the project can be sold for the same price that it was bought.
  2. The project cost $0.5m to research which was incurred one year ago.

Assumptions

  • All cash flows occur at the start or end of the year as appropriate, not in the middle or throughout the year.
  • All rates and cash flows are real. The inflation rate is 3% pa.
  • All rates are given as effective annual rates.
  • The business considering the project is run as a 'sole tradership' (run by an individual without a company) and is therefore eligible for a 50% capital gains tax discount when the equipment is sold, as permitted by the Australian Tax Office.

What is the expected net present value (NPV) of the project?



Question 1050  Miller debt and taxes, interest tax shields, Miller and Modigliani, no explanation

In Miller's 1977 article 'Debt and Taxes', he argues that interest tax shields are likely to benefit who? Note that this 1977 article is contrary to his past research findings with Modigliani (1958), modern textbooks and common practice by valuers.

Miller (1977) concludes that the benefits of interest tax shields are likely to benefit:



Question 1054  leverage, LVR

An asset price suddenly increased by 10%. Multiplication by which of the following leverage ratios will give the proportional increase in equity or net wealth?

Over a short time period the equity capital return will equal the asset capital return multiplied by the:



Question 1056  CFFA

Which of the following formulas for the carrying or net amount of 'intangible assets' such as patents from the balance sheet is correct? Assume that now is time 1 and last year is time 0, and that 'IntangibleAssets' is a carrying value net of accumulated depreciation.



Question 1057  balance sheet

Which of the following formulas for 'contributed equity' from the balance sheet is correct? Assume that now is time 1 and last year is time 0. Assume that book equity consists of contributed equity, retained profits and reserves only (BookEquity = ContributedEquity + RetainedProfits + Reserves).



Question 1070  Multiples valuation, duration, DuPont formula, WACC, mispriced asset

Adam Schwab wrote an article titled 'Why Atlassian is one of the world’s most overvalued businesses' on 15 August 2022. He stated that:

Atlassian is one of the world’s most overvalued businesses by almost any metric. Even though it loses money, Atlassian trades on a multiple of price to sales of a comical 25 times. Stern did a comparison of price-sales multiples in January 2022, noting that the multiple for the entire market was 2.88 and for software (this was before the bubble popped) was 16 times (Schwab, 2022)

Which of the following explanations is NOT correct? Atlassian's stock may be fairly priced if investors beleive that its expected future:



Question 941  negative gearing, leverage, capital structure, interest tax shield, real estate

Last year, two friends Lev and Nolev each bought similar investment properties for $1 million. Both earned net rents of $30,000 pa over the past year. They funded their purchases in different ways:

  • Lev used $200,000 of his own money and borrowed $800,000 from the bank in the form of an interest-only loan with an interest rate of 5% pa.
  • Nolev used $1,000,000 of his own money, he has no mortgage loan on his property.

Both Lev and Nolev also work in high-paying jobs and are subject personal marginal tax rates of 45%.

Which of the below statements about the past year is NOT correct?



Question 959  negative gearing, leverage, capital structure, interest tax shield, real estate

Last year, two friends Gear and Nogear invested in residential apartments. Each invested $1 million of their own money (their net wealth).

Apartments cost $1,000,000 last year and they earned net rents of $30,000 pa over the last year. Net rents are calculated as rent revenues less the costs of renting such as property maintenance, land tax and council rates. However, interest expense and personal income taxes are not deducted from net rents.

Gear and Nogear funded their purchases in different ways:

  • Gear used $1,000,000 of her own money and borrowed $4,000,000 from the bank in the form of an interest-only loan with an interest rate of 5% pa to buy 5 apartments.
  • Nogear used $1,000,000 of his own money to buy one apartment. He has no mortgage loan on his property.

Both Gear and Nogear also work in high-paying jobs and are subject personal marginal tax rates of 45%.

Which of the below statements about the past year is NOT correct?



Question 1006  CAPM, beta, leverage, WACC, real estate

Four retail business people compete in the same city. They are all exactly the same except that they have different ways of funding or leasing the shop real estate needed to run their retail business.

The two main assets that retail stores need are:

  • Inventory typically worth $1 million which has a beta of 2, and;
  • Shopfront real estate worth $1 million which has a beta of 1. Shops can be bought or leased.

Lease contract prices are fixed for the term of the lease and based on expectations of the future state of the economy. When leases end, a new lease contract is negotiated and the lease cost may be higher or lower depending on the state of the economy and demand and supply if the economy is:

  • Booming, shop real estate is worth more and lease costs are higher.
  • In recession, shop real estate is worth less and lease costs are low.
Assume that the market’s expected return is 10% pa, required returns are expected to remain constant, shop assets can be valued as a perpetuity of lease profits, and that buying, selling, shutting down, moving out, moving in and opening a new shop has negligible (low) cost. Store owners can invest surplus funds in alternative investments that also earn the 10% pa market return.

Which retail business person will have the LOWEST beta of equity (or net wealth)?



Question 586  option

Which one of the following statements about option contracts is NOT correct?



Question 591  short selling, future, option

After doing extensive fundamental analysis of a company, you believe that their shares are overpriced and will soon fall significantly. The market believes that there will be no such fall.

Which of the following strategies is NOT a good idea, assuming that your prediction is true?



Question 637  option, option payoff at maturity, no explanation

Which of the below formulas gives the payoff ##(f)## at maturity ##(T)## from being short a call option? Let the underlying asset price at maturity be ##S_T## and the exercise price be ##X_T##.



Question 435  option, no explanation

Will the price of a call option on equity or if the standard deviation of returns (risk) of the underlying shares becomes higher?


Question 437  option, no explanation

Two call options are exactly the same, but one matures in one year and the other matures in two years. Which option would you expect to have the higher price, the option which matures or , or should they have the price?


Question 438  option, no explanation

Two put options are exactly the same, but one matures in one year and the other matures in two years. Which option would you expect to have the higher price, the option which matures or , or should they have the price?


Question 102  option, hedging

A company runs a number of slaughterhouses which supply hamburger meat to McDonalds. The company is afraid that live cattle prices will increase over the next year, even though there is widespread belief in the market that they will be stable. What can the company do to hedge against the risk of increasing live cattle prices? Which statement(s) are correct?

(i) buy call options on live cattle.

(ii) buy put options on live cattle.

(iii) sell call options on live cattle.

Select the most correct response:



Question 271  CAPM, option, risk, systematic risk, systematic and idiosyncratic risk

All things remaining equal, according to the capital asset pricing model, if the systematic variance of an asset increases, its required return will increase and its price will decrease.
If the idiosyncratic variance of an asset increases, its price will be unchanged.

What is the relationship between the price of a call or put option and the total, systematic and idiosyncratic variance of the underlying asset that the option is based on? Select the most correct answer.

Call and put option prices increase when the:



Question 839  option, put call parity

A stock, a call, a put and a bond are available to trade. The call and put options' underlying asset is the stock they and have the same strike prices, ##K_T##.

You are currently long the stock. You want to hedge your long stock position without actually trading the stock. How would you do this?



Question 429  takeover

In a takeover deal where the offer is 100% scrip (shares), the merged firm's number of shares will be equal to the sum of the acquirer and target firms' original number of shares. or ?


Question 421  takeover

Acquirer firm plans to launch a takeover of Target firm. The deal is expected to create a present value of synergies totaling $105 million. A scrip offer will be made that pays the fair price for the target's shares plus 75% of the total synergy value.

Firms Involved in the Takeover
Acquirer Target
Assets ($m) 6,000 700
Debt ($m) 4,800 400
Share price ($) 40 20
Number of shares (m) 30 15
 

Ignore transaction costs and fees. Assume that the firms' debt and equity are fairly priced, and that each firms' debts' risk, yield and values remain constant. The acquisition is planned to occur immediately, so ignore the time value of money.

Calculate the merged firm's share price and total number of shares after the takeover has been completed.



Question 386  Merton model of corporate debt, real option, option

A risky firm will last for one period only (t=0 to 1), then it will be liquidated. So it's assets will be sold and the debt holders and equity holders will be paid out in that order. The firm has the following quantities:

##V## = Market value of assets.

##E## = Market value of (levered) equity.

##D## = Market value of zero coupon bonds.

##F_1## = Total face value of zero coupon bonds which is promised to be paid in one year.

Image of risky debt

The risky corporate debt graph above contains bold labels a to e. Which of the following statements about those labels is NOT correct?



Question 394  real option, option

According to option theory, it's rational for students to submit their assignments as or as possible?


Question 395  real option, option

The cheapest mobile phones available tend to be those that are 'locked' into a cell phone operator's network. Locked phones can not be used with other cell phone operators' networks.

Locked mobile phones are cheaper than unlocked phones because the locked-in network operator helps create a monopoly by:



Question 433  Merton model of corporate debt, real option, option, no explanation

A risky firm will last for one period only (t=0 to 1), then it will be liquidated. So it's assets will be sold and the debt holders and equity holders will be paid out in that order. The firm has the following quantities:

##V## = Market value of assets.

##E## = Market value of (levered) equity.

##D## = Market value of zero coupon bonds.

##F_1## = Total face value of zero coupon bonds which is promised to be paid in one year.

What is the payoff to equity holders at maturity, assuming that they keep their shares until maturity?



Question 434  Merton model of corporate debt, real option, option

A risky firm will last for one period only (t=0 to 1), then it will be liquidated. So it's assets will be sold and the debt holders and equity holders will be paid out in that order. The firm has the following quantities:

##V## = Market value of assets.

##E## = Market value of (levered) equity.

##D## = Market value of zero coupon bonds.

##F_1## = Total face value of zero coupon bonds which is promised to be paid in one year.

What is the payoff to debt holders at maturity, assuming that they keep their debt until maturity?



Question 397  financial distress, leverage, capital structure, NPV

A levered firm has a market value of assets of $10m. Its debt is all comprised of zero-coupon bonds which mature in one year and have a combined face value of $9.9m.

Investors are risk-neutral and therefore all debt and equity holders demand the same required return of 10% pa.

Therefore the current market capitalisation of debt ##(D_0)## is $9m and equity ##(E_0)## is $1m.

A new project presents itself which requires an investment of $2m and will provide a:

  • $6.6m cash flow with probability 0.5 in the good state of the world, and a
  • -$4.4m (notice the negative sign) cash flow with probability 0.5 in the bad state of the world.

The project can be funded using the company's excess cash, no debt or equity raisings are required.

What would be the new market capitalisation of equity ##(E_\text{0, with project})## if shareholders vote to proceed with the project, and therefore should shareholders proceed with the project?



Question 398  financial distress, capital raising, leverage, capital structure, NPV

A levered firm has zero-coupon bonds which mature in one year and have a combined face value of $9.9m.

Investors are risk-neutral and therefore all debt and equity holders demand the same required return of 10% pa.

In one year the firm's assets will be worth:

  • $13.2m with probability 0.5 in the good state of the world, or
  • $6.6m with probability 0.5 in the bad state of the world.

A new project presents itself which requires an investment of $2m and will provide a certain cash flow of $3.3m in one year.

The firm doesn't have any excess cash to make the initial $2m investment, but the funds can be raised from shareholders through a fairly priced rights issue. Ignore all transaction costs.

Should shareholders vote to proceed with the project and equity raising? What will be the gain in shareholder wealth if they decide to proceed?



Question 863  option, binomial option pricing

A one year European-style call option has a strike price of $4. The option's underlying stock pays no dividends and currently trades at $5. The risk-free interest rate is 10% pa continuously compounded. Use a single step binomial tree to calculate the option price, assuming that the price could rise to $8 ##(u = 1.6)## or fall to $3.125 ##(d = 1/1.6)## in one year. The call option price now is:



Question 794  option, Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing, option delta, no explanation

Which of the following quantities from the Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing formula gives the Delta of a European call option?


Where:

###d_1=\dfrac{\ln⁡[S_0/K]+(r+\sigma^2/2).T)}{\sigma.\sqrt{T}}### ###d_2=d_1-\sigma.\sqrt{T}=\dfrac{\ln⁡[S_0/K]+(r-\sigma^2/2).T)}{\sigma.\sqrt{T}}###

Question 797  option, Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing, option delta, no explanation

Which of the following quantities from the Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing formula gives the risk-neutral probability that a European put option will be exercised?