Fight Finance

Question 870  income and capital returns

An Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock was purchased by an investor for $120 and one year later was sold for $150. A dividend of $4 was also collected at the end of the year just before the stock was sold.

Which of the following statements about the stock investment is NOT correct? Ignore taxes.

Over the year, the investor made a:

(a) Capital gain of $30

(b) Dividend income of $4.

(c) Capital return of 25%.

(d) Dividend yield of 2.6667%.

(e) Total return of 28.3333%.

.

Question 525  income and capital returns, real and nominal returns and cash flows, inflation

Which of the following statements about cash in the form of notes and coins is NOT correct? Assume that inflation is positive.

Notes and coins:

(a) Pay no income cash flow.

(b) Have a nominal total return of zero.

(c) Have a nominal capital return of zero.

(d) Have a nominal income return of zero.

(e) Have a real total return of zero.

Question 528  DDM, income and capital returns

The perpetuity with growth formula, also known as the dividend discount model (DDM) or Gordon growth model, is appropriate for valuing a company's shares. ##P_0## is the current share price, ##C_1## is next year's expected dividend, ##r## is the total required return and ##g## is the expected growth rate of the dividend.

###P_0=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###

The below graph shows the expected future price path of the company's shares. Which of the following statements about the graph is NOT correct?

(a) Between points A and B, the share price is expected to grow by ##r##.

(b) Between points B and C, the share price is expected to instantaneously fall by ##C_1##.

(c) Between points A and C, the share price is expected to grow by ##g##.

(d) Between points B and D, the share price is expected to grow by ##g##.

(e) Between points D and E, the share price is expected to instantaneously fall by ##C_1.(1+r)^1##.

Question 3  DDM, income and capital returns

The following equation is called the Dividend Discount Model (DDM), Gordon Growth Model or the perpetuity with growth formula: ### P_0 = \frac{ C_1 }{ r - g } ###

What is ##g##? The value ##g## is the long term expected:

(a) Income return of the stock.

(b) Capital return of the stock.

(c) Total return of the stock.

(d) Dividend yield of the stock.

(e) Price-earnings ratio of the stock.

Question 28  DDM, income and capital returns

The following equation is the Dividend Discount Model, also known as the 'Gordon Growth Model' or the 'Perpetuity with growth' equation.

### P_{0} = \frac{C_1}{r_{\text{eff}} - g_{\text{eff}}} ###

What would you call the expression ## C_1/P_0 ##?

(a) The expected total return of the stock.

(b) The expected income return of the stock.

(c) The expected capital return of the stock.

(d) The expected growth rate of the dividend.

(e) The expected growth rate of the stock price.

Question 201  DDM, income and capital returns

The following is the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) used to price stocks:

###P_0=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###

If the assumptions of the DDM hold and the stock is fairly priced, which one of the following statements is NOT correct? The long term expected:

(a) Dividend growth rate is equal to the long term expected growth rate of the stock price.

(b) Dividend growth rate is equal to the long term expected capital return of the stock.

(c) Dividend growth rate is equal to the long term expected dividend yield.

(d) Total return of the stock is equal to its long term required return.

(e) Total return of the stock is equal to the company's long term cost of equity.

Question 255  bond pricing

In these tough economic times, central banks around the world have cut interest rates so low that they are practically zero. In some countries, government bond yields are also very close to zero.

A three year government bond with a face value of $100 and a coupon rate of 2% pa paid semi-annually was just issued at a yield of 0%. What is the price of the bond?

(a) 94.20452353

(b) 100

(c) 106

(d) 112

(e) The bond is priceless.

Question 56  income and capital returns, bond pricing, premium par and discount bonds

Which of the following statements about risk free government bonds is NOT correct?

(a) Premium bonds have a positive expected capital return.

(b) Discount bonds have a positive expected capital return.

(c) Par bonds have a zero expected capital return.

(d) Par bonds have a total expected yield equal to their coupon yield.

(e) Zero coupon bonds selling at par would have zero expected total, income and capital yields.

Hint: Total return can be broken into income and capital returns as follows:

###\begin{aligned} r_\text{total} &= \frac{c_1}{p_0} + \frac{p_1-p_0}{p_0} \\ &= r_\text{income} + r_\text{capital} \end{aligned} ###

The capital return is the growth rate of the price.
The income return is the periodic cash flow. For a bond this is the coupon payment.

Question 848  monetary policy, no explanation

Which of the following is NOT the Australian central bank’s responsibility?

(a) The stability of the currency of Australia.

(b) The maintenance of full employment in Australia.

(c) The economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia.

(d) To meet an agreed medium-term inflation target.

(e) To balance the federal government budget over the business cycle.

Question 1021  Federal funds rate, monetary policy, quantitative easing, tapering

US Fed Chair Jerome Powell held a news conference following the 25-26 January 2022 FOMC meeting.

Nick Timiraos reporting for The Wall Street Journal asked: "Raising rates and reducing the balance sheet both restrain the economy, both tighten monetary policy. How should we think about the relationship between the two? For example, how much passive runoff is equal to every quarter percentage point increase in your benchmark rate?"

Jerome Powell replied: "So, again, we think of the balance sheet as moving in a predictable manner, sort of in the background, and that the active tool meeting to meeting is not -- both of them, it's the federal funds rate. There are rules of thumbs. I'm reluctant to land on one of them that equate this. And there's also an element of uncertainty around the balance sheet. I think we have a much better sense, frankly, of how rate increases affect financial conditions and, hence, economic conditions. Balance sheet is still a relatively new thing for the markets and for us, so we're less certain about that." (US Fed, 2022)

When Nick Timiraos mentioned 'reducing the balance sheet', he's referring to:

(a) Quantitative easing (QE), where the US Fed increases its asset purchases. For example, by buying more US government bonds each month, increasing demand for bonds, raising their price and lowering their yield.

(b) Tapering, where the US Fed decreases its asset purchases. For example, by buying less US government bonds each month, decreasing demand for bonds, lowering their price and raising their yield.

(c) Expansionary conventional monetary policy, where the US Federal Reserve raises the Fed funds rate.

(d) Contractionary conventional monetary policy, where the US Federal Reserve lowers the Fed funds rate.

(e) Expansionary non-conventional monetary policy, where the US Federal Reserve reduces its assets through the purchase of more US government bonds, increasing the US Federal Reserve's liabilities.

Question 295  inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows, NPV

When valuing assets using discounted cash flow (net present value) methods, it is important to consider inflation. To properly deal with inflation:

(I) Discount nominal cash flows by nominal discount rates.

(II) Discount nominal cash flows by real discount rates.

(III) Discount real cash flows by nominal discount rates.

(IV) Discount real cash flows by real discount rates.

Which of the above statements is or are correct?

(a) I only.

(b) III only.

(c) IV only.

(d) I and IV only.

(e) II and III only.

Question 353  income and capital returns, inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows, real estate

A residential investment property has an expected nominal total return of 6% pa and nominal capital return of 3% pa.

Inflation is expected to be 2% pa. All rates are given as effective annual rates.

What are the property's expected real total, capital and income returns? The answer choices below are given in the same order.

(a) 3.9216%, 2.9412%, 0.9804%.

(b) 3.9216%, 0.9804%, 2.9412%.

(c) 3.9216%, 0.9804%, 0.9804%.

(d) 1.9804%, 1.0000%, 0.9804%.

(e) 1.9608%, 0.9804%, 0.9804%.

Question 456  inflation, effective rate

In the 'Austin Powers' series of movies, the character Dr. Evil threatens to destroy the world unless the United Nations pays him a ransom (video 1, video 2). Dr. Evil makes the threat on two separate occasions:

• In 1969 he demands a ransom of $1 million (=10^6), and again;
• In 1997 he demands a ransom of $100 billion (=10^11).

If Dr. Evil's demands are equivalent in real terms, in other words $1 million will buy the same basket of goods in 1969 as $100 billion would in 1997, what was the implied inflation rate over the 28 years from 1969 to 1997?

The answer choices below are given as effective annual rates:

(a) 0.5086% pa

(b) 1.5086% pa

(c) 5.0859% pa

(d) 50.8591% pa

(e) 150.8591% pa

Question 575  inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows

You expect a nominal payment of $100 in 5 years. The real discount rate is 10% pa and the inflation rate is 3% pa. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) The nominal cash flow of $100 in 5 years is equivalent to a real cash flow of $86.2609 in 5 years. This means that $86.2609 will buy the same amount of goods and services now as $100 will buy in 5 years.

(b) The real discount rate of 10% pa is equivalent to a nominal discount rate of 13.3333% pa.

(c) The nominal price of goods and services will increase by 3% every year.

(d) The real price of goods and services will increase by 3% every year.

(e) The present value of your payment will increase by the nominal discount rate every year.

Question 578  inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows

Which of the following statements about inflation is NOT correct?

(a) Real returns approximately equal nominal returns less the inflation rate.

(b) Constant prices are the same as real prices.

(c) Current prices are the same as nominal prices.

(d) If your nominal wage grows by inflation, then your real wage won't change because you will be able to buy the same amount of goods and services as before.

(e) Interest rates advertised at the bank are usually quoted in real terms.

Question 664  real and nominal returns and cash flows, inflation, no explanation

What is the present value of real payments of $100 every year forever, with the first payment in one year? The nominal discount rate is 7% pa and the inflation rate is 4% pa.

(a) $3,466.6667

(b) $3,333.3333

(c) $3,205.1282

(d) $1,485.7143

(e) $1,428.5714

Question 728  inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows, income and capital returns, no explanation

Which of the following statements about gold is NOT correct? Assume that the gold price increases by inflation. Gold has a:

(a) Nil income cash flow.

(b) Real total return of zero.

(c) Real capital return equal to the inflation rate.

(d) Real income return of zero.

(e) Nominal income return of zero.

Question 740  real and nominal returns and cash flows, DDM, inflation

Taking inflation into account when using the DDM can be hard. Which of the following formulas will NOT give a company's current stock price ##(P_0)##? Assume that the annual dividend was just paid ##(C_0)##, and the next dividend will be paid in one year ##(C_1)##.

(a) ##P_0=\dfrac{C_\text{1,nominal}}{r_\text{nominal} - g_\text{nominal}}##

(b) ##P_0 =\dfrac{C_0 (1+g_\text{nominal} )^1}{r_\text{nominal} - g_\text{nominal}}##

(c) ##P_0=\dfrac{C_\text{1,real}}{r_\text{real} - g_\text{real}}##

(d) ##P_0=\dfrac{C_0 (1+r_\text{real})^1}{r_\text{real} - g_\text{real}}##

(e) ##P_0=\dfrac{C_0(1+r_\text{nominal} )^1}{r_\text{nominal} - g_\text{nominal}} - C_0##

Question 311  foreign exchange rate

When someone says that they're "buying American dollars" (USD), what type of asset are they probably buying? They're probably buying:

(a) Short term debt denominated in USD, for example lending to a US bank as a USD deposit.

(b) Long term debt denominated in USD, for example lending to a US company by buying their USD bonds.

(c) Shares denominated in USD, for example buying shares in Coca-Cola which is listed on the NYSE.

(d) Real estate denominated in USD, for example buying an apartment in Chicago.

(e) Commodities with USD, for example buying gold, wheat, or coal.

Question 626  cross currency interest rate parity, foreign exchange rate, forward foreign exchange rate

The Australian cash rate is expected to be 2% pa over the next one year, while the Japanese cash rate is expected to be 0% pa, both given as nominal effective annual rates. The current exchange rate is 100 JPY per AUD.

What is the implied 1 year forward foreign exchange rate?

(a) 98.04 JPY per AUD.

(b) 100 JPY per AUD.

(c) 102 JPY per AUD.

(d) 1.02 AUD per JPY.

(e) 0.9804 AUD per JPY.

Question 246  foreign exchange rate, forward foreign exchange rate, cross currency interest rate parity

Suppose the Australian cash rate is expected to be 8.15% pa and the US federal funds rate is expected to be 3.00% pa over the next 2 years, both given as nominal effective annual rates. The current exchange rate is at parity, so 1 USD = 1 AUD.

What is the implied 2 year forward foreign exchange rate?

(a) 1 USD = 1.1025 AUD

(b) 1.1025 USD = 1 AUD

(c) 1 USD = 1.05 AUD

(d) 1 USD = 1.1 AUD

(e) 1.1 USD = 1 AUD

Question 324  foreign exchange rate

The Chinese government attempts to fix its exchange rate against the US dollar and at the same time use monetary policy to fix its interest rate at a set level.

To be able to fix its exchange rate and interest rate in this way, what does the Chinese government actually do?

1. Adopts capital controls to prevent financial arbitrage by private firms and individuals.
2. Adopts the same interest rate (monetary policy) as the United States.
3. Fixes inflation so that the domestic real interest rate is equal to the United States' real interest rate.

Which of the above statements is or are true?

(a) I only.

(b) II only.

(c) III only.

(d) I and II.

(e) II and III.

Question 606  foreign exchange rate, American and European terms

Which of the following FX quotes (current in October 2015) is given in American terms?

(a) 1.55 USD per GBP

(b) 120.61 JPY per USD

(c) 6.32 RMB per USD

(d) 1 USD = 1.31 CAD

(e) 0.99 CHF = 1 USD

Question 605  cross currency interest rate parity, foreign exchange rate

If the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep its interbank overnight cash rate at 2% pa while the US Federal Reserve is expected to keep its federal funds rate at 0% pa over the next year, is the AUD is expected to , , or remain against the USD over the next year?

Question 221  credit risk

You're considering making an investment in a particular company. They have preference shares, ordinary shares, senior debt and junior debt.

Which is the safest investment? Which has the highest expected returns?

(a) Junior debt is the safest. Preference shares have the highest expected returns.

(b) Preference shares are the safest. Ordinary shares have the highest expected returns.

(c) Senior debt is the safest. Ordinary shares have the highest expected returns.

(d) Junior debt is the safest. Ordinary shares have the highest expected returns.

(e) Senior debt is the safest. Junior debt have the highest expected returns.

Question 120  credit risk, payout policy

A newly floated farming company is financed with senior bonds, junior bonds, cumulative non-voting preferred stock and common stock. The new company has no retained profits and due to floods it was unable to record any revenues this year, leading to a loss. The firm is not bankrupt yet since it still has substantial contributed equity (same as paid-up capital).

On which securities must it pay interest or dividend payments in this terrible financial year?

(a) Preferred stock only.

(b) The senior and junior bonds only.

(c) Common stock only.

(d) The senior and junior bonds and the preferred stock.

(e) No payments on any security is required since the firm made a loss.

Question 531  bankruptcy or insolvency, capital structure, risk, limited liability

Who is most in danger of being personally bankrupt? Assume that all of their businesses' assets are highly liquid and can therefore be sold immediately.

(a) Alice has $6,000 cash, owes $10,000 credit card debt due immediately and 100% owns a sole tradership business with assets worth $10,000 and liabilities of $3,000.

(b) Billy has $10,000 cash, owes $6,000 credit card debt due immediately and 100% owns a corporate business with assets worth $3,000 and liabilities of $10,000.

(c) Carla has $6,000 cash, owes $10,000 credit card debt due immediately and 100% owns a corporate business with assets worth $10,000 and liabilities of $3,000.

(d) Darren has $10,000 cash, owes $6,000 credit card debt due immediately and 100% owns a sole tradership business with assets worth $3,000 and liabilities of $10,000.

(e) Ernie has $1,000 cash, lent $3,000 to his friend, and doesn't have any personal debt or own any businesses.

Question 867  limited liability, business structure

Which one of the following businesses is likely to be a public company in Australia, judging by its name?

(a) Joe Bloggs

(b) Jane Doe

(c) Bloggs and Doe

(d) Bloggs Ltd

(e) Doe Pty Ltd

Question 611  debt terminology

You owe money. Are you a or a ?

Question 771  debt terminology, interest expense, interest tax shield, credit risk, no explanation

You deposit money into a bank account. Which of the following statements about this deposit is NOT correct?

(a) You have a debt asset.

(b) The bank sold you its promise to pay back interest and principal payments.

(c) The bank is exposed to your credit risk, it’s afraid that you’ll default on your debt.

(d) The interest income you’re paid is taxable income for you.

(e) The interest expense that the bank pays is tax-deductible for the bank.

Question 801  negative gearing, leverage, capital structure

The following steps outline the process of ‘negative gearing’ an investment property in Australia. Which of these steps or statements is NOT correct? To successfully achieve negative gearing on an investment property:

(a) Buy an investment property with low expected future capital gains and high rental income, funded using a low proportion of debt (mortgage loan).

(b) Rent the investment property to a tenant;

(c) Negative gearing is achieved when the property investment’s annual taxable profit is negative, due to the loan’s interest expense being greater than the net rent (rental revenue less the renting expenses such as maintenance);

(d) Deduct the property’s income loss from the investor’s separate personal wage from labour. This means that the investor will pay less personal income tax than if they didn’t make the levered property investment;

(e) The investment property will be a positive-NPV investment if the capital gains are greater than the income losses on an after-tax, risk-adjusted, present-value basis.

Question 802  negative gearing, leverage, capital structure, no explanation

Which of the following statements about ‘negative gearing’ is NOT correct?

(a) Negative gearing provides benefits by increasing the investor’s personal pre-tax income in the current year.

(b) Negative gearing works best when the investor has a high personal income so they're in a high personal marginal income tax bracket.

(c) Negative gearing works best when the asset makes large capital gains but has low income (such as rent).

(d) The more leverage, the bigger the interest tax shield benefit of negative gearing.

(e) Real estate and shares can be negatively geared.

Question 990  Multiples valuation, EV to EBITDA ratio, enterprise value

A firm has:

2 million shares;

$200 million EBITDA expected over the next year;

$100 million in cash (not included in EV);

1/3 market debt-to-assets ratio is (market assets = EV + cash);

4% pa expected dividend yield over the next year, paid annually with the next dividend expected in one year;

2% pa expected dividend growth rate;

40% expected payout ratio over the next year;

10 times EV/EBITDA ratio.

30% corporate tax rate.

The stock can be valued using the EV/EBITDA multiple, dividend discount model, Gordon growth model or PE multiple. Which of the below statements is NOT correct based on an EV/EBITDA multiple valuation?

(a) The Enterprise Value (EV) is $2 billion and the asset value is $2.1 billion.

(b) The market capitalisation of equity is $1.4 billion and the stock price is $700.

(c) Gross debt is $0.7 billion and net debt is $0.6 billion (net of cash).

(d) Next year’s expected dividend per share is $28.

(e) The forward looking PE ratio is 15.

Question 1004  CFFA, WACC, interest tax shield, DDM

Use the below information to value a mature levered company with growing annual perpetual cash flows and a constant debt-to-assets ratio. The next cash flow will be generated in one year from now, so a perpetuity can be used to value this firm. The firm's debt funding comprises annual fixed coupon bonds that all have the same seniority and coupon rate. When these bonds mature, new bonds will be re-issued, and so on in perpetuity. The yield curve is flat.

Data on a Levered Firm with Perpetual Cash Flows
Item abbreviation	Value	Item full name
##\text{OFCF}_1##	$12.5m	Operating free cash flow at time 1
##\text{FFCF}_1 \text{ or }\text{CFFA}_1##	$14m	Firm free cash flow or cash flow from assets at time 1
##\text{EFCF}_1##	$11m	Equity free cash flow at time 1
##\text{BondCoupons}_1##	$1.2m	Bond coupons paid to debt holders at time 1
##g##	2% pa	Growth rate of OFCF, FFCF, EFCF and Debt cash flow
##\text{WACC}_\text{BeforeTax}##	9% pa	Weighted average cost of capital before tax
##\text{WACC}_\text{AfterTax}##	8.25% pa	Weighted average cost of capital after tax
##r_\text{D}##	5% pa	Bond yield
##r_\text{EL}##	13% pa	Cost or required return of levered equity
##D/V_L##	50% pa	Debt to assets ratio, where the asset value includes tax shields
##n_\text{shares}##	1m	Number of shares
##t_c##	30%	Corporate tax rate

 

Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) $200m is the levered firm's asset value.

(b) $100 is the share price.

(c) $5m is the interest expense over the first year.

(d) $2m is the cash flow to debt holders in one year.

(e) $1.8m of bonds must be bought back in one year.

Question 367  CFFA, interest tax shield

There are many ways to calculate a firm's free cash flow (FFCF), also called cash flow from assets (CFFA). Some include the annual interest tax shield in the cash flow and some do not.

Which of the below FFCF formulas include the interest tax shield in the cash flow?

###(1) \quad FFCF=NI + Depr - CapEx -ΔNWC + IntExp### ###(2) \quad FFCF=NI + Depr - CapEx -ΔNWC + IntExp.(1-t_c)### ###(3) \quad FFCF=EBIT.(1-t_c )+ Depr- CapEx -ΔNWC+IntExp.t_c### ###(4) \quad FFCF=EBIT.(1-t_c) + Depr- CapEx -ΔNWC### ###(5) \quad FFCF=EBITDA.(1-t_c )+Depr.t_c- CapEx -ΔNWC+IntExp.t_c### ###(6) \quad FFCF=EBITDA.(1-t_c )+Depr.t_c- CapEx -ΔNWC### ###(7) \quad FFCF=EBIT-Tax + Depr - CapEx -ΔNWC### ###(8) \quad FFCF=EBIT-Tax + Depr - CapEx -ΔNWC-IntExp.t_c### ###(9) \quad FFCF=EBITDA-Tax - CapEx -ΔNWC### ###(10) \quad FFCF=EBITDA-Tax - CapEx -ΔNWC-IntExp.t_c###

The formulas for net income (NI also called earnings), EBIT and EBITDA are given below. Assume that depreciation and amortisation are both represented by 'Depr' and that 'FC' represents fixed costs such as rent.

###NI=(Rev - COGS - Depr - FC - IntExp).(1-t_c )### ###EBIT=Rev - COGS - FC-Depr### ###EBITDA=Rev - COGS - FC### ###Tax =(Rev - COGS - Depr - FC - IntExp).t_c= \dfrac{NI.t_c}{1-t_c}###

(a) 1, 3, 5, 7, 9.

(b) 2, 4, 6, 8, 10.

(c) 1, 4, 6, 8, 10.

(d) 2, 3, 5, 7, 9.

(e) 1, 3, 5, 8, 10.

Question 657  systematic and idiosyncratic risk, CAPM, no explanation

A stock's required total return will decrease when its:

(a) Systematic risk increases.

(b) Idiosyncratic risk increases.

(c) Total risk increases.

(d) Systematic risk decreases.

(e) Idiosyncratic risk decreases.

Question 809  Markowitz portfolio theory, CAPM, Jensens alpha, CML, systematic and idiosyncratic risk

A graph of assets’ expected returns ##(\mu)## versus standard deviations ##(\sigma)## is given in the graph below. The CML is the capital market line.

Which of the following statements about this graph, Markowitz portfolio theory and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) theory is NOT correct?

(a) The market portfolio M has systematic risk only. It’s a fully diversified portfolio comprised of all individual risky assets. The market portfolio is usually assumed to be the equity index, such as the ASX200 in Australia or the S&P500 in the US.

(b) The risk free security has no risk at all. Government bonds are usually assumed to be the risk-free security.

(c) Portfolio combinations of the market portfolio and risk free security will plot on the CML and will have systematic risk only. They will have no diversifiable risk.

(d) The portfolios on the CML with a return above ##r_f## have maximum return for any given level of risk.

(e) The individual assets and portfolios with returns less than the risk free rate are over-priced, have a negative Jensen’s alpha and should be sold.

Question 1006  CAPM, beta, leverage, WACC, real estate

Four retail business people compete in the same city. They are all exactly the same except that they have different ways of funding or leasing the shop real estate needed to run their retail business.

The two main assets that retail stores need are:

• Inventory typically worth $1 million which has a beta of 2, and;
• Shopfront real estate worth $1 million which has a beta of 1. Shops can be bought or leased.

Lease contract prices are fixed for the term of the lease and based on expectations of the future state of the economy. When leases end, a new lease contract is negotiated and the lease cost may be higher or lower depending on the state of the economy and demand and supply if the economy is:

• Booming, shop real estate is worth more and lease costs are higher.
• In recession, shop real estate is worth less and lease costs are low.

Assume that the market’s expected return is 10% pa, required returns are expected to remain constant, shop assets can be valued as a perpetuity of lease profits, and that buying, selling, shutting down, moving out, moving in and opening a new shop has negligible (low) cost. Store owners can invest surplus funds in alternative investments that also earn the 10% pa market return.

Which retail business person will have the LOWEST beta of equity (or net wealth)?

(a) Anne owns her shop, funded with equity.

(b) Bob owns his shop, funded with fixed rate debt that matures in 10 years.

(c) Carla leases her shop on a 1 year contract.

(d) Dan leases his shop on a 5 year contract.

(e) All business people have the same equity beta.

Question 1044  leverage, capital structure, beta

A levered firm has only 2 assets on its balance sheet with the below market values and CAPM betas. The risk free rate is 3% pa and the market risk premium is 5% pa. Assume that the CAPM is correct and all assets are fairly priced.

Balance Sheet Market Values and Betas
Balance sheet item	Market value ($m)	Beta
Cash asset	0.5	0
Truck assets	0.5	2
Loan liabilities	0.25	0.1
Equity funding	?	?

 

Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) Market value of assets is $1m.

(b) Firm’s debt-to-assets ratio is 25%.

(c) Asset beta is 1 and required return on assets (or WACC before tax) is 8% pa.

(d) Equity beta is 1.4 and equity required return is 10% pa.

(e) Required return on debt is 3.5% pa.

Question 1045  payout policy, leverage, capital structure, beta

A levered firm has only 2 assets on its balance sheet with the below market values and CAPM betas. The risk free rate is 3% pa and the market risk premium is 5% pa. Assume that the CAPM is correct and all assets are fairly priced.

Balance Sheet Market Values and Betas
Balance sheet item	Market value ($m)	Beta
Cash asset	0.5	0
Truck assets	0.5	2
Loan liabilities	0.25	0.1
Equity funding	?	?

 

The firm then pays out all of its cash as a dividend. Assume that the beta and yield on the loan liability remain unchanged. Ignore taxes, transaction costs, signalling, information asymmetries and other frictions.

Which of the following statements is NOT correct? This event led to a:

(a) $0.5m decrease in equity to $0.25m and cash to zero.

(b) Asset beta of 1 and required return on assets (or WACC before tax) of 8% pa.

(c) $0.50 fall in the share price if there are 1 million shares.

(d) Equity beta of 3.9 and required return of 22.5% pa.

(e) Debt-to-assets ratio of 50%.

Question 813  market efficiency

The famous investor Warren Buffett is one of few portfolio managers who appears to have consistently beaten the market. His company Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) appears to have outperformed the US S&P500 market index, shown in the graph below.

Read the below statements about Warren Buffett and the implications for the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) theory of Eugene Fama. Assume that the first sentence is true. Analyse the second sentence and select the answer option which is NOT correct. In other words, find the false statement in the second sentence.

(a) Buffett is clever and by reading the news and financial reports he is able to buy under-priced stocks and sell over-priced stocks. This provides evidence for rejecting the semi-strong and strong form EMH.

(b) Buffett was lucky, his strategy happened to be the right one, not due to its merits, just by chance. This provides no evidence for or against the weak, semi-strong or strong form EMH.

(c) Buffett’s investment strategy exposes investors to higher undiversifiable risk than the market and therefore deserves a higher return. This provides no evidence for or against the weak, semi-strong or strong form EMH.

(d) Buffett is an insider trader and is able to make money from his private information. This provides evidence for rejecting the semi-strong and strong form EMH. (Note: Warren Buffett is not an insider trader, he is an honest philanthropist, but assume the contrary in this answer option).

(e) Buffett may not have beaten the market because the graphs ignore dividends - the S&P500 is the price index rather than the accumulation index and BRK pays no dividends, so even though BRK has a higher capital return than the S&P500, the total returns could be equal. This provides no evidence for or against the weak, semi-strong or strong form EMH.

Question 242  technical analysis, market efficiency

Select the most correct statement from the following.

'Chartists', also known as 'technical traders', believe that:

(a) Markets are weak-form efficient.

(b) Markets are semi-strong-form efficient.

(c) Past prices cannot be used to predict future prices.

(d) Past returns can be used to predict future returns.

(e) Stock prices reflect all publically available information.

Question 417  NPV, market efficiency, DDM

A managed fund charges fees based on the amount of money that you keep with them. The fee is 2% of the end-of-year amount, paid at the end of every year.

This fee is charged regardless of whether the fund makes gains or losses on your money.

The fund offers to invest your money in shares which have an expected return of 10% pa before fees.

You are thinking of investing $100,000 in the fund and keeping it there for 40 years when you plan to retire.

How much money do you expect to have in the fund in 40 years? Also, what is the future value of the fees that the fund expects to earn from you? Give both amounts as future values in 40 years. Assume that:

• The fund has no private information.
• Markets are weak and semi-strong form efficient.
• The fund's transaction costs are negligible.
• The cost and trouble of investing your money in shares by yourself, without the managed fund, is negligible.
• The fund invests its fees in the same companies as it invests your funds in, but with no fees.

The below answer choices list your expected wealth in 40 years, and then the fund's expected wealth in 40 years.

(a) $4,462,125.27, $63,800.29

(b) $3,407,788.62, $1,118,136.94

(c) $3,316,736.53, $1,209,189.03

(d) $2,172,452.15, $2,353,473.41

(e) $2,017,206.85, $2,508,718.71

Question 464  mispriced asset, NPV, DDM, market efficiency

A company advertises an investment costing $1,000 which they say is underpriced. They say that it has an expected total return of 15% pa, but a required return of only 10% pa. Assume that there are no dividend payments so the entire 15% total return is all capital return.

Assuming that the company's statements are correct, what is the NPV of buying the investment if the 15% return lasts for the next 100 years (t=0 to 100), then reverts to 10% pa after that time? Also, what is the NPV of the investment if the 15% return lasts forever?

In both cases, assume that the required return of 10% remains constant. All returns are given as effective annual rates.

The answer choices below are given in the same order (15% for 100 years, and 15% forever):

(a)             $0,          $0

(b) $1,977.19,   $2,000

(c) $2,977.19,   $3,000

(d)    $499.96,      $500

(e) $84,214.9,   Infinite

Question 630  mispriced asset, NPV, DDM, market efficiency

A company advertises an investment costing $1,000 which they say is underpriced. They say that it has an expected total return of 15% pa, but a required return of only 10% pa. Of the 15% pa total expected return, the dividend yield is expected to always be 7% pa and rest is the capital yield.

Assuming that the company's statements are correct, what is the NPV of buying the investment if the 15% total return lasts for the next 100 years (t=0 to 100), then reverts to 10% after that time? Also, what is the NPV of the investment if the 15% return lasts forever?

In both cases, assume that the required return of 10% remains constant, the dividends can only be re-invested at 10% pa and all returns are given as effective annual rates.

The answer choices below are given in the same order (15% for 100 years, and 15% forever):

(a) 84,214.90,   Infinite

(b)  2,521.12,   3,000

(c)  2,100.93,   2,500

(d)  1,249.38,   1,333.33

(e)          0,               0

Question 780  mispriced asset, NPV, DDM, market efficiency, no explanation

A company advertises an investment costing $1,000 which they say is under priced. They say that it has an expected total return of 15% pa, but a required return of only 10% pa. Of the 15% pa total expected return, the dividend yield is expected to be 4% pa and the capital yield 11% pa. Assume that the company's statements are correct.

What is the NPV of buying the investment if the 15% total return lasts for the next 100 years (t=0 to 100), then reverts to 10% after that time? Also, what is the NPV of the investment if the 15% return lasts forever?

In both cases, assume that the required return of 10% remains constant, the dividends can only be re-invested at 10% pa and all returns are given as effective annual rates. The answer choices below are given in the same order (15% for 100 years, and 15% forever):

(a) $7,359.46, Infinite

(b) $4,887.57, $10,000

(c) $1,786.35, -$5,000 (Note the negative sign)

(d) $1,471.89, $830.28

(e) $830.28, $3,000

Question 338  market efficiency, CAPM, opportunity cost, technical analysis

A man inherits $500,000 worth of shares.

He believes that by learning the secrets of trading, keeping up with the financial news and doing complex trend analysis with charts that he can quit his job and become a self-employed day trader in the equities markets.

What is the expected gain from doing this over the first year? Measure the net gain in wealth received at the end of this first year due to the decision to become a day trader. Assume the following:

• He earns $60,000 pa in his current job, paid in a lump sum at the end of each year.
• He enjoys examining share price graphs and day trading just as much as he enjoys his current job.
• Stock markets are weak form and semi-strong form efficient.
• He has no inside information.
• He makes 1 trade every day and there are 250 trading days in the year. Trading costs are $20 per trade. His broker invoices him for the trading costs at the end of the year.
• The shares that he currently owns and the shares that he intends to trade have the same level of systematic risk as the market portfolio.
• The market portfolio's expected return is 10% pa.

Measure the net gain over the first year as an expected wealth increase at the end of the year.

(a) $110,000

(b) $50,000

(c) $45,000

(d) -$15,000

(e) -$65,000

Question 340  market efficiency, opportunity cost

A managed fund charges fees based on the amount of money that you keep with them. The fee is 2% of the start-of-year amount, but it is paid at the end of every year.

This fee is charged regardless of whether the fund makes gains or losses on your money.

The fund offers to invest your money in shares which have an expected return of 10% pa before fees.

You are thinking of investing $100,000 in the fund and keeping it there for 40 years when you plan to retire.

What is the Net Present Value (NPV) of investing your money in the fund? Note that the question is not asking how much money you will have in 40 years, it is asking: what is the NPV of investing in the fund? Assume that:

• The fund has no private information.
• Markets are weak and semi-strong form efficient.
• The fund's transaction costs are negligible.
• The cost and trouble of investing your money in shares by yourself, without the managed fund, is negligible.

(a) $0

(b) -$20,000.00

(c) -$48,000.17

(d) -$51,999.83

(e) -$80,000.00

Question 1029  Buffett ratio

Tesla CEO Elon Musk asked a question to ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood on 6 April 2021: "What do you think of the unusually high ratio of the S&P market cap to GDP?", to which Cathie Wood replied.

What are the units of this S&P500 market cap to GDP ratio, commonly known as the Buffett ratio?

(a) Dollars.

(b) Dollars per time.

(c) Time.

(d) Per time.

(e) Pure number.

Question 1035  Minsky financial instability hypothesis, leverage

Which of the following statements about 'The Financial Instability Hypothesis' (Minsky, 1992) is NOT correct? Borrowers with sufficient income to pay:

(a) Interest expenses and principal repayments are called hedge units.

(b) Interest expenses only are called speculative units.

(c) Neither interest expenses nor principal repayments are called Ponzi units.

(d) Neither interest expenses nor principal repayments will be forced to immediately default.

Question 918  duration, Macaulay duration, modified duration, bond convexity

A fixed coupon bond’s modified duration is 10 years, and yields are currently 5% pa compounded annually. Which of the following statements about the bond is NOT correct?

(a) The Macaulay duration of the bond is 10.5 years.

(b) If yields-to-maturity suddenly rose by 1 percentage point then bond prices would suddenly fall by 10% or less.

(c) If yields-to-maturity suddenly fell by 2 percentage points then bond prices would suddenly rise by 20% or less.

(d) If the bond is a zero-coupon bond then its maturity is 10.5 years.

(e) The duration-price-change formula assumes parallel shifts in the yield curve.

Question 997  duration

Which of the following assets would have the shortest duration?

(a) Consumer staple stocks with high payout ratios such as shares in supermarkets.

(b) Fast-growing technology stocks with low payout ratios such as shares in software companies.

(c) Fixed coupon 3 year government bonds that were just issued and pay semi-annual coupons.

(d) Floating coupon 3 year corporate bonds that were just issued and pay semi-annual coupons.

(e) 90 day certificate of deposit.

Question 1002  floating coupon bond, bond pricing

Which of the following statements about vanilla floating coupon bonds paying quarterly coupons is NOT correct? A vanilla floating coupon bond's:

(a) Next quarterly dollar coupon is equal to the bond's face value multiplied by the coupon rate, divided by 4.

(b) First coupon is based on the benchmark rate at the time the bond was first issued. Therefore the first quarterly coupon is known for certain when it is issued.

(c) Coupons after the first are based on the benchmark rate at the time of that next coupon's ex-coupon date. Therefore the next quarterly coupon's dollar payment is unknown until its ex-coupon date, which is just a few days before the coupon payment date.

(d) Macaulay duration is equal to the time until the next ex-coupon date.

(e) Price is generally equal to its face value on its ex-coupon dates if there was no change in the bond's risk premium since it was issued.

Question 1009  lemons problem, asymmetric information, adverse selection

Akerlof’s 1970 paper ‘The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism’ provides a famous example of asymmetric information leading to market failure. This example is commonly known as the ‘Lemons Problem’. Imagine that half of all second hand cars are:

• Lemons worth $5,000 each. Lemons are bad second-hand cars with hidden faults that only the seller knows about; and the other half are
• Plums worth $10,000 each. Plums are good second-hand cars without faults.

Car buyers can’t tell the difference between lemon and plum cars.

Car sellers know whether their car is a lemon or a plum since they’ve driven the car for a long time. However, plum car owners cannot prove their cars’ higher quality to buyers. Also, lemon car owners are known to dis-honestly claim that their cars are plums.

What will be the market price of second hand cars?

(a) $10,000

(b) $7,500

(c) $5,000

(d) $2,500

(e) $0

Question 651  future

Which of the following statements about futures is NOT correct?

(a) Futures quotes displayed on the exchange change continuously.

(b) Futures prices written in existing futures contracts are fixed, they do not change since they’re written in the legal contract.

(c) One year futures quotes equal the market’s expectation of the underlying asset price in one year. For this reason futures markets are a good predictor of the underlying asset prices.

(d) Futures prices can be calculated based on the spot price of the underlying asset compounded forward at the total opportunity cost of capital, less any storage costs and plus any income yields such as dividends.

(e) The futures price quote and the underlying asset's spot price will converge over time. At the future's expiry they’ll be equal.

Question 589  future, contango, market efficiency

In general, stock prices tend to rise. What does this mean for futures on equity?

(a) Equity futures prices tend to be higher than spot prices. This is called contango.

(b) Equity futures prices tend to be equal to spot prices.

(c) Equity futures are generally under-priced.

(d) Equity futures are generally over-priced.

(e) Long equity futures traders tend to make more money than short equity futures traders.

Question 590  future, market efficiency

Which of the following statements about futures contracts on shares is NOT correct, assuming that markets are efficient?

When an equity future is first negotiated (at t=0):

(a) The futures price quote ##(F_T)## is 'fair'. It's neither over- nor under-priced to the long or short trader.

(b) The futures price quote ##(F_T)## equals the expected underlying asset price at maturity.

(c) The futures price quote ##(F_0)## is initially zero.

(d) The value of the future ##(V_0)## is initially zero to both the long and short trader.

(e) If the value of the future ##(V_0)## rises for the long trader, it must have fallen for the short trader, and vice versa.

Question 594  future, continuously compounding rate

The current gold price is $700, gold storage costs are 2% pa and the risk free rate is 10% pa, both with continuous compounding.

What should be the 3 year gold futures price?

(a) $758.30

(b) $773.62

(c) $889.87

(d) $944.90

(e) $1,003.33

Question 334  option

Which option position has the possibility of unlimited potential losses?

(a) Long call options.

(b) Short call options.

(c) Long put options.

(d) Short put options.

(e) No option positions have the possibility of unlimited potential losses.

Question 430  option, no explanation

A European call option will mature in ##T## years with a strike price of ##K## dollars. The underlying asset has a price of ##S## dollars.

What is an expression for the payoff at maturity ##(f_T)## in dollars from having written (being short) the call option?

(a) ##\min(S_T - K, 0)##.

(b) ##-\min(S_T - K, 0)##.

(c) ##\max(K-S_T, 0)##.

(d) ##-\max(K-S_T, 0)##.

(e)##-\max(S_T-K, 0)##.

Question 640  option, future, no explanation

Which one of the below option and futures contracts gives the possibility of potentially unlimited gains?

(a) Long call contracts.

(b) Short call contracts.

(c) Long put contracts.

(d) Short put contracts.

(e) Short future contracts.

Question 690  option

A trader just bought a European style put option on CBA stock. The current option premium is $2, the exercise price is $75, the option matures in one year and the spot CBA stock price is $74.

Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) The long trader paid the option premium at the start.

(b) The option is 'out of the money' at the start.

(c) The long trader wishes for the underlying CBA stock price to fall.

(d) The option can only be exercised at maturity.

(e) If the stock price falls to $60 at maturity, then the long trader can buy the underlying stock for $60, exercise his option to sell the underlying stock to his counterparty for $75, making a payoff at maturity of $15 and a profit of $13.

Question 124  option, hedging

You operate a cattle farm that supplies hamburger meat to the big fast food chains. You buy a lot of grain to feed your cattle, and you sell the fully grown cattle on the livestock market.

You're afraid of adverse movements in grain and livestock prices. What options should you buy to hedge your exposures in the grain and cattle livestock markets?

Select the most correct response:

(a) Buy calls on grain, buy calls on cattle livestock.

(b) Buy calls on grain, buy puts on cattle livestock.

(c) Buy puts on grain, buy calls on cattle livestock.

(d) Buy puts on grain, buy puts on cattle livestock.

(e) Statements (a) and (d) are both correct.

Question 903  option, Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing, option on stock index

A six month European-style call option on the S&P500 stock index has a strike price of 2800 points.

The underlying S&P500 stock index currently trades at 2700 points, has a continuously compounded dividend yield of 2% pa and a standard deviation of continuously compounded returns of 25% pa.

The risk-free interest rate is 5% pa continuously compounded.

Use the Black-Scholes-Merton formula to calculate the option price. The call option price now is:

(a) 162.83 points

(b) 220.56 points

(c) 226.43 points

(d) 230.91 points

(e) 317.45 points

Question 795  option, Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing, option delta, no explanation

Which of the following quantities from the Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing formula gives the Delta of a European put option?

(a) ##N[d_1]##

(b) ##N[d_2]##

(c) ##−N[−d_1]##

(d) ##−N[−d_2]##

(e) ##N[−d_2]##

Question 797  option, Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing, option delta, no explanation

Which of the following quantities from the Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing formula gives the risk-neutral probability that a European put option will be exercised?

(a) ##N[d_1]##

(b) ##N[d_2]##

(c) ##−N[−d_1]##

(d) ##−N[−d_2]##

(e) ##N[−d_2]##

Question 793  option, hedging, delta hedging, gamma hedging, gamma, Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing

A bank buys 1000 European put options on a $10 non-dividend paying stock at a strike of $12. The bank wishes to hedge this exposure. The bank can trade the underlying stocks and European call options with a strike price of 7 on the same stock with the same maturity. Details of the call and put options are given in the table below. Each call and put option is on a single stock.

European Options on a Non-dividend Paying Stock
Description	Symbol	Put Values	Call Values
Spot price ($)	##S_0##	10	10
Strike price ($)	##K_T##	12	7
Risk free cont. comp. rate (pa)	##r##	0.05	0.05
Standard deviation of the stock's cont. comp. returns (pa)	##\sigma##	0.4	0.4
Option maturity (years)	##T##	1	1
Option price ($)	##p_0## or ##c_0##	2.495350486	3.601466138
##N[d_1]##	##\partial c/\partial S##		0.888138405
##N[d_2]##	##N[d_2]##		0.792946442
##-N[-d_1]##	##\partial p/\partial S##	-0.552034778
##N[-d_2]##	##N[-d_2]##	0.207053558
Gamma	##\Gamma = \partial^2 c/\partial S^2## or ##\partial^2 p/\partial S^2##	0.098885989	0.047577422
Theta	##\Theta = \partial c/\partial T## or ##\partial p/\partial T##	0.348152078	0.672379961

 

Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) If the underlying stock price suddenly rose by $0.01, the put option price would be expected to fall by less than $0.00552034777953178.

(b) If the underlying stock price suddenly fell by $0.01, the put option price would be expected to rise by more than $0.00552034777953178.

(c) If the underlying stock price suddenly rose by $0.01, the call option price would be expected to rise by more than $0.00888138404936379.

(d) To Delta hedge the 1000 long put options, long 552.0348 stocks.

(e) To Delta and Gamma hedge the 1000 long put options, long 2078.4226 call options and short 2397.9617 stocks.

Question 386  Merton model of corporate debt, real option, option

A risky firm will last for one period only (t=0 to 1), then it will be liquidated. So it's assets will be sold and the debt holders and equity holders will be paid out in that order. The firm has the following quantities:

##V## = Market value of assets.

##E## = Market value of (levered) equity.

##D## = Market value of zero coupon bonds.

##F_1## = Total face value of zero coupon bonds which is promised to be paid in one year.

The risky corporate debt graph above contains bold labels a to e. Which of the following statements about those labels is NOT correct?

(a) Label a represents the market value of equity ##(E)## at t=0 on the red curved line or t=1 on the blue crooked line.

(b) Label b represents the face value of debt at maturity ##(F_1)##.

(c) Label c represents the market value of debt now ##(D_0)##.

(d) Label d represents the face value of debt at maturity ##(F_1)##.

(e) Label e represents the market value of assets ##(V)## at t=0 on the red curved line or t=1 on the blue crooked line.

Question 433  Merton model of corporate debt, real option, option, no explanation

A risky firm will last for one period only (t=0 to 1), then it will be liquidated. So it's assets will be sold and the debt holders and equity holders will be paid out in that order. The firm has the following quantities:

##V## = Market value of assets.

##E## = Market value of (levered) equity.

##D## = Market value of zero coupon bonds.

##F_1## = Total face value of zero coupon bonds which is promised to be paid in one year.

What is the payoff to equity holders at maturity, assuming that they keep their shares until maturity?

(a) ##max(V_1 - F_1, 0)##.

(b) ##max(V_1 - D_1, 0)##.

(c) ##max(F_1 - V_1, 0)##.

(d) ##max(D_1 - V_1, 0)##.

(e) ##-min(F_1 - V_1, 0)##.

Question 434  Merton model of corporate debt, real option, option

A risky firm will last for one period only (t=0 to 1), then it will be liquidated. So it's assets will be sold and the debt holders and equity holders will be paid out in that order. The firm has the following quantities:

##V## = Market value of assets.

##E## = Market value of (levered) equity.

##D## = Market value of zero coupon bonds.

##F_1## = Total face value of zero coupon bonds which is promised to be paid in one year.

What is the payoff to debt holders at maturity, assuming that they keep their debt until maturity?

(a) ##\max(V_1 - F_1,0)##.

(b) ##\max(F_1, V_1)##.

(c) ##\max(F_1, 0)##.

(d) ##\min(F_1, V_1)##.

(e) ##\min(V_1-F_1, F_1)##.

Question 381  Merton model of corporate debt, option, real option

In the Merton model of corporate debt, buying a levered company's debt is equivalent to buying risk free government bonds and:

(a) Selling the company's assets.

(b) Buying a call option on the company's assets.

(c) Buying a put option on the company's assets.

(d) Selling a call option on the company's assets.

(e) Selling a put option on the company's assets.

Question 696  utility, risk aversion, utility function

Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions. Which of the statements about the 3 utility functions is NOT correct?

(a) Mr Blue prefers more wealth to less. Mrs Green enjoys losing wealth.

(b) Miss Red has the same utility no matter how much wealth she has.

(c) Mr Blue is risk averse.

(d) Miss Red is risk averse.

(e) Mrs Green is risk loving.

Question 699  utility, risk aversion, utility function, gamble

Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions.

Each person has $50 of initial wealth. A coin toss game is offered to each person at a casino where the player can win or lose $50. Each player can flip a coin and if they flip heads, they receive $50. If they flip tails then they will lose $50. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) Mr Blue's expected utility of wealth from gambling is 5 while refusing is 7.07. So the gamble makes him less happy.

(b) Mrs Green's expected utility of wealth from gambling is 7.07 while refusing is 5. So the gamble makes her more happy.

(c) Mr Blue's certainty equivalent of the risky gamble is $25. This is less than his current wealth of $50 which is why he would refuse.

(d) Miss Red's certainty equivalent of the risky gamble is $50. This is equal to her current wealth of $50 which is why she is indifferent to gambling or not.

(e) Mrs Green's certainty equivalent of the risky gamble is $70.71. This is more than her current wealth of $50 which is why she would accept.

Question 704  utility, risk aversion, utility function, gamble

Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions.

Each person has $256 of initial wealth. A coin toss game is offered to each person at a casino where the player can win or lose $256. Each player can flip a coin and if they flip heads, they receive $256. If they flip tails then they will lose $256. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) All people would appear rational to an economist since they prefer more wealth to less.

(b) Mrs Green and Miss Red would appear unusual to an economist since they are not risk averse.

(c) Mr Blue's certainty equivalent of the gamble is $64. This is less than his current wealth of $256 which is why he would refuse the gamble.

(d) Miss Red's certainty equivalent of the gamble is $256. This is the same as her current wealth of $256 which is why she would be indifferent to playing or not.

(e) Mrs Green's certainty equivalent of the gamble is $512. This is more than her current wealth of $256 which is why she would love to play.

Question 705  utility, risk aversion, utility function

Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions.

Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) Mr Blue is as happy with zero wealth as he is with $1,000. Similarly for Miss Red and Mrs Green.

(b) All of the people would appear irrational to an economist. Though Mr Blue appears to be rational when he has more than $192 in wealth.

(c) Mr Blue is risk averse. Miss Red is risk neutral. Mrs Green is risk loving.

(d) Miss Red is totally indifferent to how much wealth she has. She doesn't care about gaining or losing money.

(e) Mr Blue prefers more to less up to a wealth of around $192. At about $192 he is the happiest he can be. This is his bliss point. With more than $192 he becomes less happy.

Question 706  utility, risk aversion, utility function

Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions.

Note that a fair gamble is a bet that has an expected value of zero, such as paying $0.50 to win $1 in a coin flip with heads or nothing if it lands tails. Fairly priced insurance is when the expected present value of the insurance premiums is equal to the expected loss from the disaster that the insurance protects against, such as the cost of rebuilding a home after a catastrophic fire.

Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green all prefer more wealth to less. This is rational from an economist's point of view.

(b) Mr Blue is risk averse. He will not enjoy a fair gamble and would like to buy fairly priced insurance.

(c) Miss Red is risk-neutral. She will not enjoy a fair gamble but wouldn't oppose it either. Similarly with fairly priced insurance.

(d) Mrs Green is risk-loving. She would enjoy a fair gamble and would dislike fairly priced insurance.

(e) Mr Blue would like to buy insurance, but only if it is fairly or under priced.

Question 775  utility, utility function

Below is a graph of 3 peoples’ utility functions, Mr Blue (U=W^(1/2) ), Miss Red (U=W/10) and Mrs Green (U=W^2/1000). Assume that each of them currently have $50 of wealth.

Which of the following statements about them is NOT correct?

(a) Mr Blue would prefer to invest his wealth in a well diversified portfolio of stocks rather than a single stock, assuming that all stocks had the same total risk and return.

(b) Mrs Green would prefer to invest her wealth in a single stock rather than a well diversified portfolio of stocks, assuming that all stocks had the same total risk and return.

(c) The popularity of insurance only makes sense if people are similar to Mr Blue.

(d) CAPM theory only makes sense if people are similar to Miss Red.

(e) The popularity of casino gambling and lottery tickets only make sense if people are similar to Mrs Green.

Question 707  continuously compounding rate, continuously compounding rate conversion

Convert a 10% effective annual rate ##(r_\text{eff annual})## into a continuously compounded annual rate ##(r_\text{cc annual})##. The equivalent continuously compounded annual rate is:

(a) 230.258509% pa

(b) 10.536052% pa

(c) 10.517092% pa

(d) 10.468982% pa

(e) 9.531018% pa

Question 710  continuously compounding rate, continuously compounding rate conversion

A continuously compounded monthly return of 1% ##(r_\text{cc monthly})## is equivalent to a continuously compounded annual return ##(r_\text{cc annual})## of:

(a) 12.682503% pa

(b) 12.060201% pa

(c) 12% pa

(d) 11.940397% pa

(e) 3.464102% pa

Question 717  return distribution

The below three graphs show probability density functions (PDF) of three different random variables Red, Green and Blue. Let ##P_1## be the unknown price of a stock in one year. ##P_1## is a random variable. Let ##P_0 = 1##, so the share price now is $1. This one dollar is a constant, it is not a variable.

Which of the below statements is NOT correct? Financial practitioners commonly assume that the shape of the PDF represented in the colour:

(a) Green is a stock's continuously compounded rate of return, also called the log gross discrete return. ##r_\text{cc} = \ln(P_1/P_0)##

(b) Blue is a stock's future price, ##P_1##

(c) Blue is a stock's gross discrete return. ##\text{GDR} = P_1/P_0##

(d) Blue is a stock's effective rate of return. ##r_\text{eff} = (P_1-P_0)/P_0##

(e) Red is a stock's net discrete return. ##\text{NDR} = \text{GDR}-1##

Question 811  log-normal distribution, mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages

Which of the following statements about probability distributions is NOT correct?

(a) A normally distributed variable’s mean, median and mode are all expected to be equal.

(b) A log-normally distributed variable’s mean, median and mode are all expected to be different. Mean > median > mode.

(c) Future stock prices ##(P_t )## are often assumed to be log-normally distributed.

(d) Stocks’ annual net discrete returns ##(P_t/P_0-1)## must be normally distributed when stock prices ##(P_t)## are log-normally distributed.

(e) The total area under a probability density function (pdf) is always one.

Question 722  mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

Here is a table of stock prices and returns. Which of the statements below the table is NOT correct?

Price and Return Population Statistics
Time	Prices	LGDR	GDR	NDR
0	100
1	50	-0.6931	0.5	-0.5
2	100	0.6931	2	1
Arithmetic average		0	1.25	0.25
Arithmetic standard deviation		0.9802	1.0607	1.0607

 

(a) The geometric average of the gross discrete returns (GAGDR) equals 1 which is 100%.

(b) ##\text{GAGDR} = \exp \left( \text{AALGDR} \right)##. The GAGDR is equal to the natural exponent of the arithmetic average of the logarithms of the gross discrete returns (AALGDR).

(c) ##\text{GAGDR} = \left( P_T/P_0 \right)^{1/T}##. The GAGDR equals the ratio of the last and first prices raised to the power of the inverse of the number of time periods between them.

(d) ##\text{LGAGDR} = \text{AALGDR}##. This is always true, regardless of the distribution of the prices or returns and the number of return observations. The logarithm of the geometric average of the gross discrete returns (LGAGDR) is always equal to the arithmetic average of the logarithms of the gross discrete returns (AALGDR).

(e) ##\text{LAAGDR} = \text{AALGDR} + \text{SDLGDR}^2/2##. This is always true, regardless of the distribution of the prices or returns and the number of return observations. The logarithm of the arithmetic average of the gross discrete returns (LAAGDR) equals the arithmetic average of the logarithms of the gross discrete returns (AALGDR) plus half the variance of the LGDR's.

Question 720  mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

A stock has an arithmetic average continuously compounded return (AALGDR) of 10% pa, a standard deviation of continuously compounded returns (SDLGDR) of 80% pa and current stock price of $1. Assume that stock prices are log-normally distributed.

In 5 years, what do you expect the median and mean prices to be? The answer options are given in the same order.

(a) $0.332871, $1.648721

(b) $8.16617, $1.648721

(c) $1.61051, $1.648721

(d) $1.61051, $5.773534

(e) $1.648721, $8.16617

Question 723  mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

Here is a table of stock prices and returns. Which of the statements below the table is NOT correct?

Price and Return Population Statistics
Time	Prices	LGDR	GDR	NDR
0	100
1	99	-0.010050	0.990000	-0.010000
2	180.40	0.600057	1.822222	0.822222
3	112.73	0.470181	0.624889	0.375111
Arithmetic average		0.0399	1.1457	0.1457
Arithmetic standard deviation		0.4384	0.5011	0.5011

 

(a) The geometric average of the gross discrete returns (GAGDR) equals 1.04075 which is 104.075%.

(b) ##\exp \left( \text{GAGDR} \right) = \text{AALGDR}##. The natural exponent of the GAGDR equals the arithmetic average of the logarithms of the gross discrete returns (AALGDR).

(c) ##\text{GAGDR}^T = \left( P_T/P_0 \right)##. The GAGDR raised to the power of the number of time period that it's measured over equals the ratio of the first and last prices.

(d) ##\text{GAGDR} = \exp \left( \text{AALGDR} \right)##. This is always true, regardless of the distribution of the prices or returns. The logarithm of the geometric average of the gross discrete returns (LGAGDR) is always equal to the arithmetic average of the logarithm of the gross discrete returns (AALGDR).

(e) ##\text{AAGDR} \approx \exp \left( \text{AALGDR} + \text{SDLGDR}^2/2 \right)##. This is only approximately true and depends on the distribution of the prices and returns. It's asymptotically true as the time period that the returns are measured over reaches infinity.

Question 792  mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate, log-normal distribution, confidence interval

A risk manager has identified that their investment fund’s continuously compounded portfolio returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 40% pa. The fund’s portfolio is currently valued at $1 million. Assume that there is no estimation error in the above figures. To simplify your calculations, all answers below use 2.33 as an approximation for the normal inverse cumulative density function at 99%. All answers are rounded to the nearest dollar. Assume one month is 1/12 of a year. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) The median portfolio value in one year is $1,105,171. In one month it's $1,008,368.

(b) The mean portfolio value in one year is $1,197,217. In one month it's $1,015,113.

(c) The worst one percentile of portfolio values in one year is $435,178.

(d) The worst one percentile of portfolio values in one month is $933,016.

(e) The 98% confidence interval of portfolio values in two years is between $326,918 and $4,563,305.

Question 877  arithmetic and geometric averages, utility, utility function

Gross discrete returns in different states of the world are presented in the table below. A gross discrete return is defined as ##P_1/P_0##, where ##P_0## is the price now and ##P_1## is the expected price in the future. An investor can purchase only a single asset, A, B, C or D. Assume that a portfolio of assets is not possible.

Gross Discrete Returns
In Different States of the World
Investment	World states (probability)
asset	Good (50%)	Bad (50%)
A	2	0.5
B	1.1	0.9
C	1.1	0.95
D	1.01	1.01

 

Which of the following statements about the different assets is NOT correct? Asset:

(a) A's Arithmetic Average Gross Discrete Return (AAGDR) is the highest.

(b) B's Geometric Average Gross Discrete Return (GAGDR) is the lowest.

(c) C's GAGDR is higher than its AAGDR.

(d) D's AAGDR and GAGDR are equal since it's volatility is zero.

(e) C's expected utility of wealth would be the highest for an investor with a log utility function.

Question 925  mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate, no explanation

The arithmetic average and standard deviation of returns on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 were calculated as follows:

###\bar{r}_\text{yearly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1992}^{24}{\left( \ln⁡ \left( \dfrac{P_{t+1}}{P_t} \right) \right)} }{T} = \text{AALGDR} =0.0949=9.49\% \text{ pa}###

###\sigma_\text{yearly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1992}^{24}{\left( \left( \ln⁡ \left( \dfrac{P_{t+1}}{P_t} \right) - \bar{r}_\text{yearly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} = \text{SDLGDR} = 0.1692=16.92\text{ pp pa}###

Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed and that the above estimates are true population statistics, not sample statistics, so there is no standard error in the sample mean or standard deviation estimates. Also assume that the standardised normal Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail probability of 2.5% is exactly -1.96.

Which of the following statements is NOT correct? If you invested $1m today in the ASX200, then over the next 4 years:

(a) Continuously compounded mean and median returns are both 37.96% over the 4 year period.

(b) 95% confidence interval of the continuously compounded returns is between -28.3664% and 104.2864% over the 4 year period.

(c) Mean dollar value is $1.547835m while its median dollar value is $1.4617m in 4 years.

(d) 95% confidence interval of the dollar value is between $0.75302m and $2.17038m in 4 years.

(e) 95% confidence interval of the effective annual return is between -24.698% and 183.7332% over the 4 year period.

Question 926  mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

The arithmetic average continuously compounded or log gross discrete return (AALGDR) on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 is 9.49% pa.

The arithmetic standard deviation (SDLGDR) is 16.92 percentage points pa.

Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed and that the above estimates are true population statistics, not sample statistics, so there is no standard error in the sample mean or standard deviation estimates. Also assume that the standardised normal Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail probability of 2.5% is exactly -1.96.

If you had a $1 million fund that replicated the ASX200 accumulation index, in how many years would the median dollar value of your fund first be expected to lie outside the 95% confidence interval forecast?

(a) 23.17 years.

(b) 41.31 years.

(c) 134.19 years.

(d) 536.75 years.

(e) Never.

Question 927  mean and median returns, mode return, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

The arithmetic average continuously compounded or log gross discrete return (AALGDR) on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 is 9.49% pa.

The arithmetic standard deviation (SDLGDR) is 16.92 percentage points pa.

Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed and that the above estimates are true population statistics, not sample statistics, so there is no standard error in the sample mean or standard deviation estimates. Also assume that the standardised normal Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail probability of 2.5% is exactly -1.96.

If you had a $1 million fund that replicated the ASX200 accumulation index, in how many years would the mean dollar value of your fund first be expected to lie outside the 95% confidence interval forecast?

(a) 23.17 years.

(b) 41.31 years.

(c) 134.19 years.

(d) 536.75 years.

(e) Never.

Question 928  mean and median returns, mode return, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate, no explanation

The arithmetic average continuously compounded or log gross discrete return (AALGDR) on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 is 9.49% pa.

The arithmetic standard deviation (SDLGDR) is 16.92 percentage points pa.

Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed and that the above estimates are true population statistics, not sample statistics, so there is no standard error in the sample mean or standard deviation estimates. Also assume that the standardised normal Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail probability of 2.5% is exactly -1.96.

If you had a $1 million fund that replicated the ASX200 accumulation index, in how many years would the mode dollar value of your fund first be expected to lie outside the 95% confidence interval forecast?

Note that the mode of a log-normally distributed future price is: ##P_{T \text{ mode}} = P_0.e^{(\text{AALGDR} - \text{SDLGDR}^2 ).T} ##

(a) 23.17 years.

(b) 41.31 years.

(c) 134.19 years.

(d) 536.75 years.

(e) Never.