The required return of a building project is 10%, given as an effective annual rate. Assume that the cash flows shown in the table are paid all at once at the given point in time.
The building firm is just about to start the project and the client has signed the contract. Initially the firm will pay $100 to the sub-contractors to carry out the work and then will receive an $11 payment from the client in one year and $121 when the project is finished in 2 years. Ignore credit risk.
But the building company is considering selling the project to a competitor at different points in time and is pondering the minimum price that they should sell it for.
| Project Cash Flows | |
| Time (yrs) | Cash flow ($) |
| 0 | -100 |
| 1 | 11 |
| 2 | 121 |
Which of the below statements is NOT correct? The project is worth:
An investor owns a whole level of an old office building which is currently worth $1 million. There are three mutually exclusive projects that can be started by the investor. The office building level can be:
- Rented out to a tenant for one year at $0.1m paid immediately, and then sold for $0.99m in one year.
- Refurbished into more modern commercial office rooms at a cost of $1m now, and then sold for $2.4m when the refurbishment is finished in one year.
- Converted into residential apartments at a cost of $2m now, and then sold for $3.4m when the conversion is finished in one year.
All of the development projects have the same risk so the required return of each is 10% pa. The table below shows the estimated cash flows and internal rates of returns (IRR's).
| Mutually Exclusive Projects | |||
| Project | Cash flow now ($) |
Cash flow in one year ($) |
IRR (% pa) |
| Rent then sell as is | -900,000 | 990,000 | 10 |
| Refurbishment into modern offices | -2,000,000 | 2,400,000 | 20 |
| Conversion into residential apartments | -3,000,000 | 3,400,000 | 13.33 |
Which project should the investor accept?
An asset's total expected return over the next year is given by:
###r_\text{total} = \dfrac{c_1+p_1-p_0}{p_0} ###
Where ##p_0## is the current price, ##c_1## is the expected income in one year and ##p_1## is the expected price in one year. The total return can be split into the income return and the capital return.
Which of the following is the expected capital return?
One and a half years ago Frank bought a house for $600,000. Now it's worth only $500,000, based on recent similar sales in the area.
The expected total return on Frank's residential property is 7% pa.
He rents his house out for $1,600 per month, paid in advance. Every 12 months he plans to increase the rental payments.
The present value of 12 months of rental payments is $18,617.27.
The future value of 12 months of rental payments one year in the future is $19,920.48.
What is the expected annual rental yield of the property? Ignore the costs of renting such as maintenance, real estate agent fees and so on.
Question 278 inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows
Imagine that the interest rate on your savings account was 1% per year and inflation was 2% per year.
Question 407 income and capital returns, inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows
A stock has a real expected total return of 7% pa and a real expected capital return of 2% pa.
Inflation is expected to be 2% pa. All rates are given as effective annual rates.
What is the nominal expected total return, capital return and dividend yield? The answers below are given in the same order.
Question 554 inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows
On his 20th birthday, a man makes a resolution. He will put $30 cash under his bed at the end of every month starting from today. His birthday today is the first day of the month. So the first addition to his cash stash will be in one month. He will write in his will that when he dies the cash under the bed should be given to charity.
If the man lives for another 60 years, how much money will be under his bed if he dies just after making his last (720th) addition?
Also, what will be the real value of that cash in today's prices if inflation is expected to 2.5% pa? Assume that the inflation rate is an effective annual rate and is not expected to change.
The answers are given in the same order, the amount of money under his bed in 60 years, and the real value of that money in today's prices.
Question 732 real and nominal returns and cash flows, inflation, income and capital returns
An investor bought a bond for $100 (at t=0) and one year later it paid its annual coupon of $1 (at t=1). Just after the coupon was paid, the bond price was $100.50 (at t=1). Inflation over the past year (from t=0 to t=1) was 3% pa, given as an effective annual rate.
Which of the following statements is NOT correct? The bond investment produced a:
You're considering making an investment in a particular company. They have preference shares, ordinary shares, senior debt and junior debt.
Which is the safest investment? Which has the highest expected returns?
Which of the following statements about book and market equity is NOT correct?
Question 444 investment decision, corporate financial decision theory
The investment decision primarily affects which part of a business?
This annuity formula ##\dfrac{C_1}{r}\left(1-\dfrac{1}{(1+r)^3} \right)## is equivalent to which of the following formulas? Note the 3.
In the below formulas, ##C_t## is a cash flow at time t. All of the cash flows are equal, but paid at different times.
Your friend overheard that you need some cash and asks if you would like to borrow some money. She can lend you $5,000 now (t=0), and in return she wants you to pay her back $1,000 in two years (t=2) and every year after that for the next 5 years, so there will be 6 payments of $1,000 from t=2 to t=7 inclusive.
What is the net present value (NPV) of borrowing from your friend?
Assume that banks loan funds at interest rates of 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate.
Some countries' interest rates are so low that they're zero.
If interest rates are 0% pa and are expected to stay at that level for the foreseeable future, what is the most that you would be prepared to pay a bank now if it offered to pay you $10 at the end of every year for the next 5 years?
In other words, what is the present value of five $10 payments at time 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 if interest rates are 0% pa?
Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation prices assets by finding the present value of the asset's future cash flows. The single cash flow, annuity, and perpetuity equations are very useful for this.
Which of the following equations is the 'perpetuity with growth' equation?
A stock is just about to pay a dividend of $1 tonight. Future annual dividends are expected to grow by 2% pa. The next dividend of $1 will be paid tonight, and the year after that the dividend will be $1.02 (=1*(1+0.02)^1), and a year later 1.0404 (=1*(1+0.04)^2) and so on forever.
Its required total return is 10% pa. The total required return and growth rate of dividends are given as effective annual rates.
Calculate the current stock price.
The perpetuity with growth formula, also known as the dividend discount model (DDM) or Gordon growth model, is appropriate for valuing a company's shares. ##P_0## is the current share price, ##C_1## is next year's expected dividend, ##r## is the total required return and ##g## is the expected growth rate of the dividend.
###P_0=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###
The below graph shows the expected future price path of the company's shares. Which of the following statements about the graph is NOT correct?
The following is the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) used to price stocks:
###P_0=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###
If the assumptions of the DDM hold and the stock is fairly priced, which one of the following statements is NOT correct? The long term expected:
Question 497 income and capital returns, DDM, ex dividend date
A stock will pay you a dividend of $10 tonight if you buy it today. Thereafter the annual dividend is expected to grow by 5% pa, so the next dividend after the $10 one tonight will be $10.50 in one year, then in two years it will be $11.025 and so on. The stock's required return is 10% pa.
What is the stock price today and what do you expect the stock price to be tomorrow, approximately?
The following equation is the Dividend Discount Model, also known as the 'Gordon Growth Model' or the 'Perpetuity with growth' equation.
### p_0 = \frac{d_1}{r - g} ###
Which expression is NOT equal to the expected dividend yield?
Question 50 DDM, stock pricing, inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows
Most listed Australian companies pay dividends twice per year, the 'interim' and 'final' dividends, which are roughly 6 months apart.
You are an equities analyst trying to value the company BHP. You decide to use the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) as a starting point, so you study BHP's dividend history and you find that BHP tends to pay the same interim and final dividend each year, and that both grow by the same rate.
You expect BHP will pay a $0.55 interim dividend in six months and a $0.55 final dividend in one year. You expect each to grow by 4% next year and forever, so the interim and final dividends next year will be $0.572 each, and so on in perpetuity.
Assume BHP's cost of equity is 8% pa. All rates are quoted as nominal effective rates. The dividends are nominal cash flows and the inflation rate is 2.5% pa.
What is the current price of a BHP share?
Question 535 DDM, real and nominal returns and cash flows, stock pricing
You are an equities analyst trying to value the equity of the Australian telecoms company Telstra, with ticker TLS. In Australia, listed companies like Telstra tend to pay dividends every 6 months. The payment around August is called the final dividend and the payment around February is called the interim dividend. Both occur annually.
- Today is mid-March 2015.
- TLS's last interim dividend of $0.15 was one month ago in mid-February 2015.
- TLS's last final dividend of $0.15 was seven months ago in mid-August 2014.
Judging by TLS's dividend history and prospects, you estimate that the nominal dividend growth rate will be 1% pa. Assume that TLS's total nominal cost of equity is 6% pa. The dividends are nominal cash flows and the inflation rate is 2.5% pa. All rates are quoted as nominal effective annual rates. Assume that each month is exactly one twelfth (1/12) of a year, so you can ignore the number of days in each month.
Calculate the current TLS share price.
Question 488 income and capital returns, payout policy, payout ratio, DDM
Two companies BigDiv and ZeroDiv are exactly the same except for their dividend payouts.
BigDiv pays large dividends and ZeroDiv doesn't pay any dividends.
Currently the two firms have the same earnings, assets, number of shares, share price, expected total return and risk.
Assume a perfect world with no taxes, no transaction costs, no asymmetric information and that all assets including business projects are fairly priced and therefore zero-NPV.
All things remaining equal, which of the following statements is NOT correct?
You own a nice suit which you wear once per week on nights out. You bought it one year ago for $600. In your experience, suits used once per week last for 6 years. So you expect yours to last for another 5 years.
Your younger brother said that retro is back in style so he wants to wants to borrow your suit once a week when he goes out. With the increased use, your suit will only last for another 4 years rather than 5.
What is the present value of the cost of letting your brother use your current suit for the next 4 years?
Assume: that bank interest rates are 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate; you will buy a new suit when your current one wears out and your brother will not use the new one; your brother will only use your current suit so he will only use it for the next four years; and the price of a new suit never changes.
You own some nice shoes which you use once per week on date nights. You bought them 2 years ago for $500. In your experience, shoes used once per week last for 6 years. So you expect yours to last for another 4 years.
Your younger sister said that she wants to borrow your shoes once per week. With the increased use, your shoes will only last for another 2 years rather than 4.
What is the present value of the cost of letting your sister use your current shoes for the next 2 years?
Assume: that bank interest rates are 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate; you will buy a new pair of shoes when your current pair wears out and your sister will not use the new ones; your sister will only use your current shoes so she will only use it for the next 2 years; and the price of new shoes never changes.
The below screenshot of Microsoft's (MSFT) details were taken from the Google Finance website on 28 Nov 2014. Some information has been deliberately blanked out.
What was MSFT's market capitalisation of equity?
Question 576 inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows
What is the present value of a nominal payment of $1,000 in 4 years? The nominal discount rate is 8% pa and the inflation rate is 2% pa.
Which of the following statements about effective rates and annualised percentage rates (APR's) is NOT correct?
A European bond paying annual coupons of 6% offers a yield of 10% pa.
Convert the yield into an effective monthly rate, an effective annual rate and an effective daily rate. Assume that there are 365 days in a year.
All answers are given in the same order:
### r_\text{eff, monthly} , r_\text{eff, yearly} , r_\text{eff, daily} ###
A prospective home buyer can afford to pay $2,000 per month in mortgage loan repayments. The central bank recently lowered its policy rate by 0.25%, and residential home lenders cut their mortgage loan rates from 4.74% to 4.49%.
How much more can the prospective home buyer borrow now that interest rates are 4.49% rather than 4.74%? Give your answer as a proportional increase over the original amount he could borrow (##V_\text{before}##), so:
###\text{Proportional increase} = \frac{V_\text{after}-V_\text{before}}{V_\text{before}} ###Assume that:
- Interest rates are expected to be constant over the life of the loan.
- Loans are interest-only and have a life of 30 years.
- Mortgage loan payments are made every month in arrears and all interest rates are given as annualised percentage rates compounding per month.
Question 56 income and capital returns, bond pricing, premium par and discount bonds
Which of the following statements about risk free government bonds is NOT correct?
Hint: Total return can be broken into income and capital returns as follows:
###\begin{aligned} r_\text{total} &= \frac{c_1}{p_0} + \frac{p_1-p_0}{p_0} \\ &= r_\text{income} + r_\text{capital} \end{aligned} ###
The capital return is the growth rate of the price.
The income return is the periodic cash flow. For a bond this is the coupon payment.
A 10 year Australian government bond was just issued at par with a yield of 3.9% pa. The fixed coupon payments are semi-annual. The bond has a face value of $1,000.
Six months later, just after the first coupon is paid, the yield of the bond decreases to 3.65% pa. What is the bond's new price?
Question 213 income and capital returns, bond pricing, premium par and discount bonds
The coupon rate of a fixed annual-coupon bond is constant (always the same).
What can you say about the income return (##r_\text{income}##) of a fixed annual coupon bond? Remember that:
###r_\text{total} = r_\text{income} + r_\text{capital}###
###r_\text{total, 0 to 1} = \frac{c_1}{p_0} + \frac{p_1-p_0}{p_0}###
Assume that there is no change in the bond's total annual yield to maturity from when it is issued to when it matures.
Select the most correct statement.
From its date of issue until maturity, the income return of a fixed annual coupon:
A young lady is trying to decide if she should attend university. Her friends say that she should go to university because she is more likely to meet a clever young man than if she begins full time work straight away.
What's the correct way to classify this item from a capital budgeting perspective when trying to find the Net Present Value of going to university rather than working?
The opportunity to meet a desirable future spouse should be classified as:
Find Ching-A-Lings Corporation's Cash Flow From Assets (CFFA), also known as Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF), over the year ending 30th June 2013.
| Ching-A-Lings Corp | ||
| Income Statement for | ||
| year ending 30th June 2013 | ||
| $m | ||
| Sales | 100 | |
| COGS | 20 | |
| Depreciation | 20 | |
| Rent expense | 11 | |
| Interest expense | 19 | |
| Taxable Income | 30 | |
| Taxes at 30% | 9 | |
| Net income | 21 | |
| Ching-A-Lings Corp | ||
| Balance Sheet | ||
| as at 30th June | 2013 | 2012 |
| $m | $m | |
| Inventory | 49 | 38 |
| Trade debtors | 14 | 2 |
| Rent paid in advance | 5 | 5 |
| PPE | 400 | 400 |
| Total assets | 468 | 445 |
| Trade creditors | 4 | 10 |
| Bond liabilities | 200 | 190 |
| Contributed equity | 145 | 145 |
| Retained profits | 119 | 100 |
| Total L and OE | 468 | 445 |
Note: All figures are given in millions of dollars ($m).
The cash flow from assets was:
Find the cash flow from assets (CFFA) of the following project.
| One Year Mining Project Data | ||
| Project life | 1 year | |
| Initial investment in building mine and equipment | $9m | |
| Depreciation of mine and equipment over the year | $8m | |
| Kilograms of gold mined at end of year | 1,000 | |
| Sale price per kilogram | $0.05m | |
| Variable cost per kilogram | $0.03m | |
| Before-tax cost of closing mine at end of year | $4m | |
| Tax rate | 30% | |
Note 1: Due to the project, the firm also anticipates finding some rare diamonds which will give before-tax revenues of $1m at the end of the year.
Note 2: The land that will be mined actually has thermal springs and a family of koalas that could be sold to an eco-tourist resort for an after-tax amount of $3m right now. However, if the mine goes ahead then this natural beauty will be destroyed.
Note 3: The mining equipment will have a book value of $1m at the end of the year for tax purposes. However, the equipment is expected to fetch $2.5m when it is sold.
Find the project's CFFA at time zero and one. Answers are given in millions of dollars ($m), with the first cash flow at time zero, and the second at time one.
A firm has a debt-to-equity ratio of 60%. What is its debt-to-assets ratio?
One year ago you bought $100,000 of shares partly funded using a margin loan. The margin loan size was $70,000 and the other $30,000 was your own wealth or 'equity' in the share assets.
The interest rate on the margin loan was 7.84% pa.
Over the year, the shares produced a dividend yield of 4% pa and a capital gain of 5% pa.
What was the total return on your wealth? Ignore taxes, assume that all cash flows (interest payments and dividends) were paid and received at the end of the year, and all rates above are effective annual rates.
Hint: Remember that wealth in this context is your equity (E) in the house asset (V = D+E) which is funded by the loan (D) and your deposit or equity (E).
A manufacturing company is considering a new project in the more risky services industry. The cash flows from assets (CFFA) are estimated for the new project, with interest expense excluded from the calculations. To get the levered value of the project, what should these unlevered cash flows be discounted by?
Assume that the manufacturing firm has a target debt-to-assets ratio that it sticks to.
The US firm Google operates in the online advertising business. In 2011 Google bought Motorola Mobility which manufactures mobile phones.
Assume the following:
- Google had a 10% after-tax weighted average cost of capital (WACC) before it bought Motorola.
- Motorola had a 20% after-tax WACC before it merged with Google.
- Google and Motorola have the same level of gearing.
- Both companies operate in a classical tax system.
You are a manager at Motorola. You must value a project for making mobile phones. Which method(s) will give the correct valuation of the mobile phone manufacturing project? Select the most correct answer.
The mobile phone manufacturing project's:
There are a number of ways that assets can be depreciated. Generally the government's tax office stipulates a certain method.
But if it didn't, what would be the ideal way to depreciate an asset from the perspective of a businesses owner?
The hardest and most important aspect of business project valuation is the estimation of the:
A firm has a debt-to-assets ratio of 50%. The firm then issues a large amount of debt to raise money for new projects of similar market risk to the company's existing projects. Assume a classical tax system. Which statement is correct?
Question 490 expected and historical returns, accounting ratio
Which of the following is NOT a synonym of 'required return'?
Question 461 book and market values, ROE, ROA, market efficiency
One year ago a pharmaceutical firm floated by selling its 1 million shares for $100 each. Its book and market values of equity were both $100m. Its debt totalled $50m. The required return on the firm's assets was 15%, equity 20% and debt 5% pa.
In the year since then, the firm:
- Earned net income of $29m.
- Paid dividends totaling $10m.
- Discovered a valuable new drug that will lead to a massive 1,000 times increase in the firm's net income in 10 years after the research is commercialised. News of the discovery was publicly announced. The firm's systematic risk remains unchanged.
Which of the following statements is NOT correct? All statements are about current figures, not figures one year ago.
Hint: Book return on assets (ROA) and book return on equity (ROE) are ratios that accountants like to use to measure a business's past performance.
###\text{ROA}= \dfrac{\text{Net income}}{\text{Book value of assets}}###
###\text{ROE}= \dfrac{\text{Net income}}{\text{Book value of equity}}###
The required return on assets ##r_V## is a return that financiers like to use to estimate a business's future required performance which compensates them for the firm's assets' risks. If the business were to achieve realised historical returns equal to its required returns, then investment into the business's assets would have been a zero-NPV decision, which is neither good nor bad but fair.
###r_\text{V, 0 to 1}= \dfrac{\text{Cash flow from assets}_\text{1}}{\text{Market value of assets}_\text{0}} = \dfrac{CFFA_\text{1}}{V_\text{0}}###
Similarly for equity and debt.
Question 58 NPV, inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows, Annuity
A project to build a toll bridge will take two years to complete, costing three payments of $100 million at the start of each year for the next three years, that is at t=0, 1 and 2.
After completion, the toll bridge will yield a constant $50 million at the end of each year for the next 10 years. So the first payment will be at t=3 and the last at t=12. After the last payment at t=12, the bridge will be given to the government.
The required return of the project is 21% pa given as an effective annual nominal rate.
All cash flows are real and the expected inflation rate is 10% pa given as an effective annual rate. Ignore taxes.
The Net Present Value is:
A stock just paid its annual dividend of $9. The share price is $60. The required return of the stock is 10% pa as an effective annual rate.
What is the implied growth rate of the dividend per year?
Question 498 NPV, Annuity, perpetuity with growth, multi stage growth model
A business project is expected to cost $100 now (t=0), then pay $10 at the end of the third (t=3), fourth, fifth and sixth years, and then grow by 5% pa every year forever. So the cash flow will be $10.5 at the end of the seventh year (t=7), then $11.025 at the end of the eighth year (t=8) and so on perpetually. The total required return is 10℅ pa.
Which of the following formulas will NOT give the correct net present value of the project?
Which of the following investable assets are NOT suitable for valuation using PE multiples techniques?
Which firms tend to have low forward-looking price-earnings (PE) ratios?
Only consider firms with positive earnings, disregard firms with negative earnings and therefore negative PE ratios.
Which of the following investable assets are NOT suitable for valuation using PE multiples techniques?
Which firms tend to have high forward-looking price-earnings (PE) ratios?
Which firms tend to have low forward-looking price-earnings (PE) ratios? Only consider firms with positive PE ratios.
A low-quality second-hand car can be bought now for $1,000 and will last for 1 year before it will be scrapped for nothing.
A high-quality second-hand car can be bought now for $4,900 and it will last for 5 years before it will be scrapped for nothing.
What is the equivalent annual cost of each car? Assume a discount rate of 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate.
The answer choices are given as the equivalent annual cost of the low-quality car and then the high quality car.
You're advising your superstar client 40-cent who is weighing up buying a private jet or a luxury yacht. 40-cent is just as happy with either, but he wants to go with the more cost-effective option. These are the cash flows of the two options:
- The private jet can be bought for $6m now, which will cost $12,000 per month in fuel, piloting and airport costs, payable at the end of each month. The jet will last for 12 years.
- Or the luxury yacht can be bought for $4m now, which will cost $20,000 per month in fuel, crew and berthing costs, payable at the end of each month. The yacht will last for 20 years.
What's unusual about 40-cent is that he is so famous that he will actually be able to sell his jet or yacht for the same price as it was bought since the next generation of superstar musicians will buy it from him as a status symbol.
Bank interest rates are 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate. You can assume that 40-cent will live for another 60 years and that when the jet or yacht's life is at an end, he will buy a new one with the same details as above.
Would you advise 40-cent to buy the or the ?
Note that the effective monthly rate is ##r_\text{eff monthly}=(1+0.1)^{1/12}-1=0.00797414##
Which of the following statements is NOT equivalent to the yield on debt?
Assume that the debt being referred to is fairly priced, but do not assume that it's priced at par.
Question 49 inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows, APR, effective rate
In Australia, nominal yields on semi-annual coupon paying Government Bonds with 2 years until maturity are currently 2.83% pa.
The inflation rate is currently 2.2% pa, given as an APR compounding per quarter. The inflation rate is not expected to change over the next 2 years.
What is the real yield on these bonds, given as an APR compounding every 6 months?
You just signed up for a 30 year fully amortising mortgage loan with monthly payments of $2,000 per month. The interest rate is 9% pa which is not expected to change.
How much did you borrow? After 5 years, how much will be owing on the mortgage? The interest rate is still 9% and is not expected to change.
You just signed up for a 30 year interest-only mortgage with monthly payments of $3,000 per month. The interest rate is 6% pa which is not expected to change.
How much did you borrow? After 15 years, just after the 180th payment at that time, how much will be owing on the mortgage? The interest rate is still 6% and is not expected to change. Remember that the mortgage is interest-only and that mortgage payments are paid in arrears (at the end of the month).
You just borrowed $400,000 in the form of a 25 year interest-only mortgage with monthly payments of $3,000 per month. The interest rate is 9% pa which is not expected to change.
You actually plan to pay more than the required interest payment. You plan to pay $3,300 in mortgage payments every month, which your mortgage lender allows. These extra payments will reduce the principal and the minimum interest payment required each month.
At the maturity of the mortgage, what will be the principal? That is, after the last (300th) interest payment of $3,300 in 25 years, how much will be owing on the mortgage?
Bonds A and B are issued by the same company. They have the same face value, maturity, seniority and coupon payment frequency. The only difference is that bond A has a 5% coupon rate, while bond B has a 10% coupon rate. The yield curve is flat, which means that yields are expected to stay the same.
Which bond would have the higher current price?
Question 48 IRR, NPV, bond pricing, premium par and discount bonds, market efficiency
The theory of fixed interest bond pricing is an application of the theory of Net Present Value (NPV). Also, a 'fairly priced' asset is not over- or under-priced. Buying or selling a fairly priced asset has an NPV of zero.
Considering this, which of the following statements is NOT correct?
A two year Government bond has a face value of $100, a yield of 2.5% pa and a fixed coupon rate of 0.5% pa, paid semi-annually. What is its price?
Your friend is trying to find the net present value of an investment which:
- Costs $1 million initially (t=0); and
- Pays a single positive cash flow of $1.1 million in one year (t=1).
The investment has a total required return of 10% pa due to its moderate level of undiversifiable risk.
Your friend is aware of the importance of opportunity costs and the time value of money, but he is unsure of how to find the NPV of the project.
He knows that the opportunity cost of investing the $1m in the project is the expected gain from investing the money in shares instead. Like the project, shares also have an expected return of 10% since they have moderate undiversifiable risk. This opportunity cost is $0.1m ##(=1m \times 10\%)## which occurs in one year (t=1).
He knows that the time value of money should be accounted for, and this can be done by finding the present value of the cash flows in one year.
Your friend has listed a few different ways to find the NPV which are written down below.
Method 1: ##-1m + \dfrac{1.1m}{(1+0.1)^1} ##
Method 2: ##-1m + 1.1m - 1m \times 0.1 ##
Method 3: ##-1m + \dfrac{1.1m}{(1+0.1)^1} - 1m \times 0.1 ##
Which of the above calculations give the correct NPV? Select the most correct answer.
What is the net present value (NPV) of undertaking a full-time Australian undergraduate business degree as an Australian citizen? Only include the cash flows over the duration of the degree, ignore any benefits or costs of the degree after it's completed.
Assume the following:
- The degree takes 3 years to complete and all students pass all subjects.
- There are 2 semesters per year and 4 subjects per semester.
- University fees per subject per semester are $1,277, paid at the start of each semester. Fees are expected to remain constant in real terms for the next 3 years.
- There are 52 weeks per year.
- The first semester is just about to start (t=0). The first semester lasts for 19 weeks (t=0 to 19).
- The second semester starts immediately afterwards (t=19) and lasts for another 19 weeks (t=19 to 38).
- The summer holidays begin after the second semester ends and last for 14 weeks (t=38 to 52). Then the first semester begins the next year, and so on.
- Working full time at the grocery store instead of studying full-time pays $20/hr and you can work 35 hours per week. Wages are paid at the end of each week and are expected to remain constant in real terms.
- Full-time students can work full-time during the summer holiday at the grocery store for the same rate of $20/hr for 35 hours per week.
- The discount rate is 9.8% pa. All rates and cash flows are real. Inflation is expected to be 3% pa. All rates are effective annual.
The NPV of costs from undertaking the university degree is:
Find Sidebar Corporation's Cash Flow From Assets (CFFA), also known as Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF), over the year ending 30th June 2013.
| Sidebar Corp | ||
| Income Statement for | ||
| year ending 30th June 2013 | ||
| $m | ||
| Sales | 405 | |
| COGS | 100 | |
| Depreciation | 34 | |
| Rent expense | 22 | |
| Interest expense | 39 | |
| Taxable Income | 210 | |
| Taxes at 30% | 63 | |
| Net income | 147 | |
| Sidebar Corp | ||
| Balance Sheet | ||
| as at 30th June | 2013 | 2012 |
| $m | $m | |
| Cash | 0 | 0 |
| Inventory | 70 | 50 |
| Trade debtors | 11 | 16 |
| Rent paid in advance | 4 | 3 |
| PPE | 700 | 680 |
| Total assets | 785 | 749 |
| Trade creditors | 11 | 19 |
| Bond liabilities | 400 | 390 |
| Contributed equity | 220 | 220 |
| Retained profits | 154 | 120 |
| Total L and OE | 785 | 749 |
Note: All figures are given in millions of dollars ($m).
The cash flow from assets was:
Over the next year, the management of an unlevered company plans to:
- Achieve firm free cash flow (FFCF or CFFA) of $1m.
- Pay dividends of $1.8m
- Complete a $1.3m share buy-back.
- Spend $0.8m on new buildings without buying or selling any other fixed assets. This capital expenditure is included in the CFFA figure quoted above.
Assume that:
- All amounts are received and paid at the end of the year so you can ignore the time value of money.
- The firm has sufficient retained profits to pay the dividend and complete the buy back.
- The firm plans to run a very tight ship, with no excess cash above operating requirements currently or over the next year.
How much new equity financing will the company need? In other words, what is the value of new shares that will need to be issued?
Value the following business project to manufacture a new product.
| Project Data | ||
| Project life | 2 yrs | |
| Initial investment in equipment | $6m | |
| Depreciation of equipment per year | $3m | |
| Expected sale price of equipment at end of project | $0.6m | |
| Unit sales per year | 4m | |
| Sale price per unit | $8 | |
| Variable cost per unit | $5 | |
| Fixed costs per year, paid at the end of each year | $1m | |
| Interest expense per year | 0 | |
| Tax rate | 30% | |
| Weighted average cost of capital after tax per annum | 10% | |
Notes
- The firm's current assets and current liabilities are $3m and $2m respectively right now. This net working capital will not be used in this project, it will be used in other unrelated projects.
Due to the project, current assets (mostly inventory) will grow by $2m initially (at t = 0), and then by $0.2m at the end of the first year (t=1).
Current liabilities (mostly trade creditors) will increase by $0.1m at the end of the first year (t=1).
At the end of the project, the net working capital accumulated due to the project can be sold for the same price that it was bought. - The project cost $0.5m to research which was incurred one year ago.
Assumptions
- All cash flows occur at the start or end of the year as appropriate, not in the middle or throughout the year.
- All rates and cash flows are real. The inflation rate is 3% pa.
- All rates are given as effective annual rates.
- The business considering the project is run as a 'sole tradership' (run by an individual without a company) and is therefore eligible for a 50% capital gains tax discount when the equipment is sold, as permitted by the Australian Tax Office.
What is the expected net present value (NPV) of the project?
A retail furniture company buys furniture wholesale and distributes it through its retail stores. The owner believes that she has some good ideas for making stylish new furniture. She is considering a project to buy a factory and employ workers to manufacture the new furniture she's designed. Furniture manufacturing has more systematic risk than furniture retailing.
Her furniture retailing firm's after-tax WACC is 20%. Furniture manufacturing firms have an after-tax WACC of 30%. Both firms are optimally geared. Assume a classical tax system.
Which method(s) will give the correct valuation of the new furniture-making project? Select the most correct answer.
Question 370 capital budgeting, NPV, interest tax shield, WACC, CFFA
| Project Data | ||
| Project life | 2 yrs | |
| Initial investment in equipment | $600k | |
| Depreciation of equipment per year | $250k | |
| Expected sale price of equipment at end of project | $200k | |
| Revenue per job | $12k | |
| Variable cost per job | $4k | |
| Quantity of jobs per year | 120 | |
| Fixed costs per year, paid at the end of each year | $100k | |
| Interest expense in first year (at t=1) | $16.091k | |
| Interest expense in second year (at t=2) | $9.711k | |
| Tax rate | 30% | |
| Government treasury bond yield | 5% | |
| Bank loan debt yield | 6% | |
| Levered cost of equity | 12.5% | |
| Market portfolio return | 10% | |
| Beta of assets | 1.24 | |
| Beta of levered equity | 1.5 | |
| Firm's and project's debt-to-equity ratio | 25% | |
Notes
- The project will require an immediate purchase of $50k of inventory, which will all be sold at cost when the project ends. Current liabilities are negligible so they can be ignored.
Assumptions
- The debt-to-equity ratio will be kept constant throughout the life of the project. The amount of interest expense at the end of each period has been correctly calculated to maintain this constant debt-to-equity ratio. Note that interest expense is different in each year.
- Thousands are represented by 'k' (kilo).
- All cash flows occur at the start or end of the year as appropriate, not in the middle or throughout the year.
- All rates and cash flows are nominal. The inflation rate is 2% pa.
- All rates are given as effective annual rates.
- The 50% capital gains tax discount is not available since the project is undertaken by a firm, not an individual.
What is the net present value (NPV) of the project?
Question 69 interest tax shield, capital structure, leverage, WACC
Which statement about risk, required return and capital structure is the most correct?
A company issues a large amount of bonds to raise money for new projects of similar risk to the company's existing projects. The net present value (NPV) of the new projects is positive but small. Assume a classical tax system. Which statement is NOT correct?
A firm has a debt-to-assets ratio of 50%. The firm then issues a large amount of equity to raise money for new projects of similar systematic risk to the company's existing projects. Assume a classical tax system. Which statement is correct?
Question 337 capital structure, interest tax shield, leverage, real and nominal returns and cash flows, multi stage growth model
A fast-growing firm is suitable for valuation using a multi-stage growth model.
It's nominal unlevered cash flow from assets (##CFFA_U##) at the end of this year (t=1) is expected to be $1 million. After that it is expected to grow at a rate of:
- 12% pa for the next two years (from t=1 to 3),
- 5% over the fourth year (from t=3 to 4), and
- -1% forever after that (from t=4 onwards). Note that this is a negative one percent growth rate.
Assume that:
- The nominal WACC after tax is 9.5% pa and is not expected to change.
- The nominal WACC before tax is 10% pa and is not expected to change.
- The firm has a target debt-to-equity ratio that it plans to maintain.
- The inflation rate is 3% pa.
- All rates are given as nominal effective annual rates.
What is the levered value of this fast growing firm's assets?
Question 708 continuously compounding rate, continuously compounding rate conversion
Convert a 10% continuously compounded annual rate ##(r_\text{cc annual})## into an effective annual rate ##(r_\text{eff annual})##. The equivalent effective annual rate is:
Which of the following interest rate quotes is NOT equivalent to a 10% effective annual rate of return? Assume that each year has 12 months, each month has 30 days, each day has 24 hours, each hour has 60 minutes and each minute has 60 seconds. APR stands for Annualised Percentage Rate.
Diversification is achieved by investing in a large amount of stocks. What type of risk is reduced by diversification?
A fairly priced stock has an expected return equal to the market's. Treasury bonds yield 5% pa and the market portfolio's expected return is 10% pa. What is the stock's beta?
The security market line (SML) shows the relationship between beta and expected return.
Buying investment projects that plot above the SML would lead to:
Stock A has a beta of 0.5 and stock B has a beta of 1. Which statement is NOT correct?
A stock has a beta of 1.5. The market's expected total return is 10% pa and the risk free rate is 5% pa, both given as effective annual rates.
In the last 5 minutes, bad economic news was released showing a higher chance of recession. Over this time the share market fell by 1%. The risk free rate was unchanged.
What do you think was the stock's historical return over the last 5 minutes, given as an effective 5 minute rate?
A firm changes its capital structure by issuing a large amount of equity and using the funds to repay debt. Its assets are unchanged. Ignore interest tax shields.
According to the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which statement is correct?
The CAPM can be used to find a business's expected opportunity cost of capital:
###r_i=r_f+β_i (r_m-r_f)###
What should be used as the risk free rate ##r_f##?
Question 319 foreign exchange rate, monetary policy, American and European terms
Investors expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep the policy rate steady at their next meeting.
Then unexpectedly, the RBA announce that they will increase the policy rate by 25 basis points due to fears that the economy is growing too fast and that inflation will be above their target rate of 2 to 3 per cent.
What do you expect to happen to Australia's exchange rate in the short term? The Australian dollar is likely to:
The Chinese government attempts to fix its exchange rate against the US dollar and at the same time use monetary policy to fix its interest rate at a set level.
To be able to fix its exchange rate and interest rate in this way, what does the Chinese government actually do?
- Adopts capital controls to prevent financial arbitrage by private firms and individuals.
- Adopts the same interest rate (monetary policy) as the United States.
- Fixes inflation so that the domestic real interest rate is equal to the United States' real interest rate.
Which of the above statements is or are true?
Two risky stocks A and B comprise an equal-weighted portfolio. The correlation between the stocks' returns is 70%.
If the variance of stock A's returns increases but the:
- Prices and expected returns of each stock stays the same,
- Variance of stock B's returns stays the same,
- Correlation of returns between the stocks stays the same.
Which of the following statements is NOT correct?
What is the correlation of a variable X with a constant C?
The corr(X, C) or ##\rho_{X,C}## equals:
Let the standard deviation of returns for a share per month be ##\sigma_\text{monthly}##.
What is the formula for the standard deviation of the share's returns per year ##(\sigma_\text{yearly})##?
Assume that returns are independently and identically distributed (iid) so they have zero auto correlation, meaning that if the return was higher than average today, it does not indicate that the return tomorrow will be higher or lower than average.
Question 119 market efficiency, fundamental analysis, joint hypothesis problem
Your friend claims that by reading 'The Economist' magazine's economic news articles, she can identify shares that will have positive abnormal expected returns over the next 2 years. Assuming that her claim is true, which statement(s) are correct?
(i) Weak form market efficiency is broken.
(ii) Semi-strong form market efficiency is broken.
(iii) Strong form market efficiency is broken.
(iv) The asset pricing model used to measure the abnormal returns (such as the CAPM) is either wrong (mis-specification error) or is measured using the wrong inputs (data errors) so the returns may not be abnormal but rather fair for the level of risk.
Select the most correct response:
Fundamentalists who analyse company financial reports and news announcements (but who don't have inside information) will make positive abnormal returns if:
Question 338 market efficiency, CAPM, opportunity cost, technical analysis
A man inherits $500,000 worth of shares.
He believes that by learning the secrets of trading, keeping up with the financial news and doing complex trend analysis with charts that he can quit his job and become a self-employed day trader in the equities markets.
What is the expected gain from doing this over the first year? Measure the net gain in wealth received at the end of this first year due to the decision to become a day trader. Assume the following:
- He earns $60,000 pa in his current job, paid in a lump sum at the end of each year.
- He enjoys examining share price graphs and day trading just as much as he enjoys his current job.
- Stock markets are weak form and semi-strong form efficient.
- He has no inside information.
- He makes 1 trade every day and there are 250 trading days in the year. Trading costs are $20 per trade. His broker invoices him for the trading costs at the end of the year.
- The shares that he currently owns and the shares that he intends to trade have the same level of systematic risk as the market portfolio.
- The market portfolio's expected return is 10% pa.
Measure the net gain over the first year as an expected wealth increase at the end of the year.
A company advertises an investment costing $1,000 which they say is underpriced. They say that it has an expected total return of 15% pa, but a required return of only 10% pa. Assume that there are no dividend payments so the entire 15% total return is all capital return.
Assuming that the company's statements are correct, what is the NPV of buying the investment if the 15% return lasts for the next 100 years (t=0 to 100), then reverts to 10% pa after that time? Also, what is the NPV of the investment if the 15% return lasts forever?
In both cases, assume that the required return of 10% remains constant. All returns are given as effective annual rates.
The answer choices below are given in the same order (15% for 100 years, and 15% forever):
Question 448 franking credit, personal tax on dividends, imputation tax system
A small private company has a single shareholder. This year the firm earned a $100 profit before tax. All of the firm's after tax profits will be paid out as dividends to the owner.
The corporate tax rate is 30% and the sole shareholder's personal marginal tax rate is 45%.
The Australian imputation tax system applies because the company generates all of its income in Australia and pays corporate tax to the Australian Tax Office. Therefore all of the company's dividends are fully franked. The sole shareholder is an Australian for tax purposes and can therefore use the franking credits to offset his personal income tax liability.
What will be the personal tax payable by the shareholder and the corporate tax payable by the company?
A company announces that it will pay a dividend, as the market expected. The company's shares trade on the stock exchange which is open from 10am in the morning to 4pm in the afternoon each weekday. When would the share price be expected to fall by the amount of the dividend? Ignore taxes.
The share price is expected to fall during the:
Currently, a mining company has a share price of $6 and pays constant annual dividends of $0.50. The next dividend will be paid in 1 year. Suddenly and unexpectedly the mining company announces that due to higher than expected profits, all of these windfall profits will be paid as a special dividend of $0.30 in 1 year.
If investors believe that the windfall profits and dividend is a one-off event, what will be the new share price? If investors believe that the additional dividend is actually permanent and will continue to be paid, what will be the new share price? Assume that the required return on equity is unchanged. Choose from the following, where the first share price includes the one-off increase in earnings and dividends for the first year only ##(P_\text{0 one-off})## , and the second assumes that the increase is permanent ##(P_\text{0 permanent})##:
Note: When a firm makes excess profits they sometimes pay them out as special dividends. Special dividends are just like ordinary dividends but they are one-off and investors do not expect them to continue, unlike ordinary dividends which are expected to persist.
A mining firm has just discovered a new mine. So far the news has been kept a secret.
The net present value of digging the mine and selling the minerals is $250 million, but $500 million of new equity and $300 million of new bonds will need to be issued to fund the project and buy the necessary plant and equipment.
The firm will release the news of the discovery and equity and bond raising to shareholders simultaneously in the same announcement. The shares and bonds will be issued shortly after.
Once the announcement is made and the new shares and bonds are issued, what is the expected increase in the value of the firm's assets ##(\Delta V)##, market capitalisation of debt ##(\Delta D)## and market cap of equity ##(\Delta E)##? Assume that markets are semi-strong form efficient.
The triangle symbol ##\Delta## is the Greek letter capital delta which means change or increase in mathematics.
Ignore the benefit of interest tax shields from having more debt.
Remember: ##\Delta V = \Delta D+ \Delta E##
Question 568 rights issue, capital raising, capital structure
A company conducts a 1 for 5 rights issue at a subscription price of $7 when the pre-announcement stock price was $10. What is the percentage change in the stock price and the number of shares outstanding? The answers are given in the same order. Ignore all taxes, transaction costs and signalling effects.
Question 625 dividend re-investment plan, capital raising
Which of the following statements about dividend re-investment plans (DRP's) is NOT correct?
In late 2003 the listed bank ANZ announced a 2-for-11 rights issue to fund the takeover of New Zealand bank NBNZ. Below is the chronology of events:
- 23/10/2003. Share price closes at $18.30.
- 24/10/2003. 2-for-11 rights issue announced at a subscription price of $13. The proceeds of the rights issue will be used to acquire New Zealand bank NBNZ. Trading halt announced in morning before market opens.
- 28/10/2003. Trading halt lifted. Last (and only) day that shares trade cum-rights. Share price opens at $18.00 and closes at $18.14.
- 29/10/2003. Shares trade ex-rights.
All things remaining equal, what would you expect ANZ's stock price to open at on the first day that it trades ex-rights (29/10/2003)? Ignore the time value of money since time is negligibly short. Also ignore taxes.
Question 710 continuously compounding rate, continuously compounding rate conversion
A continuously compounded monthly return of 1% ##(r_\text{cc monthly})## is equivalent to a continuously compounded annual return ##(r_\text{cc annual})## of:
An effective monthly return of 1% ##(r_\text{eff monthly})## is equivalent to an effective annual return ##(r_\text{eff annual})## of:
Which of the following quantities is commonly assumed to be normally distributed?
Question 811 log-normal distribution, mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages
Which of the following statements about probability distributions is NOT correct?
Question 721 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate
Fred owns some Commonwealth Bank (CBA) shares. He has calculated CBA’s monthly returns for each month in the past 20 years using this formula:
###r_\text{t monthly}=\ln \left( \dfrac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} \right)###He then took the arithmetic average and found it to be 1% per month using this formula:
###\bar{r}_\text{monthly}= \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( r_\text{t monthly} \right)} }{T} =0.01=1\% \text{ per month}###He also found the standard deviation of these monthly returns which was 5% per month:
###\sigma_\text{monthly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( \left( r_\text{t monthly} - \bar{r}_\text{monthly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} =0.05=5\%\text{ per month}###Which of the below statements about Fred’s CBA shares is NOT correct? Assume that the past historical average return is the true population average of future expected returns.
Question 722 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate
Here is a table of stock prices and returns. Which of the statements below the table is NOT correct?
| Price and Return Population Statistics | ||||
| Time | Prices | LGDR | GDR | NDR |
| 0 | 100 | |||
| 1 | 50 | -0.6931 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| 2 | 100 | 0.6931 | 2 | 1 |
| Arithmetic average | 0 | 1.25 | 0.25 | |
| Arithmetic standard deviation | 0.9802 | 1.0607 | 1.0607 | |
A managed fund charges fees based on the amount of money that you keep with them. The fee is 2% of the start-of-year amount, but it is paid at the end of every year.
This fee is charged regardless of whether the fund makes gains or losses on your money.
The fund offers to invest your money in shares which have an expected return of 10% pa before fees.
You are thinking of investing $100,000 in the fund and keeping it there for 40 years when you plan to retire.
What is the Net Present Value (NPV) of investing your money in the fund? Note that the question is not asking how much money you will have in 40 years, it is asking: what is the NPV of investing in the fund? Assume that:
- The fund has no private information.
- Markets are weak and semi-strong form efficient.
- The fund's transaction costs are negligible.
- The cost and trouble of investing your money in shares by yourself, without the managed fund, is negligible.
Question 416 real estate, market efficiency, income and capital returns, DDM, CAPM
A residential real estate investor believes that house prices will grow at a rate of 5% pa and that rents will grow by 2% pa forever.
All rates are given as nominal effective annual returns. Assume that:
- His forecast is true.
- Real estate is and always will be fairly priced and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is true.
- Ignore all costs such as taxes, agent fees, maintenance and so on.
- All rental income cash flow is paid out to the owner, so there is no re-investment and therefore no additions or improvements made to the property.
- The non-monetary benefits of owning real estate and renting remain constant.
Which one of the following statements is NOT correct? Over time:
A managed fund charges fees based on the amount of money that you keep with them. The fee is 2% of the end-of-year amount, paid at the end of every year.
This fee is charged regardless of whether the fund makes gains or losses on your money.
The fund offers to invest your money in shares which have an expected return of 10% pa before fees.
You are thinking of investing $100,000 in the fund and keeping it there for 40 years when you plan to retire.
How much money do you expect to have in the fund in 40 years? Also, what is the future value of the fees that the fund expects to earn from you? Give both amounts as future values in 40 years. Assume that:
- The fund has no private information.
- Markets are weak and semi-strong form efficient.
- The fund's transaction costs are negligible.
- The cost and trouble of investing your money in shares by yourself, without the managed fund, is negligible.
- The fund invests its fees in the same companies as it invests your funds in, but with no fees.
The below answer choices list your expected wealth in 40 years, and then the fund's expected wealth in 40 years.
An established mining firm announces that it expects large losses over the following year due to flooding which has temporarily stalled production at its mines. Which statement(s) are correct?
(i) If the firm adheres to a full dividend payout policy it will not pay any dividends over the following year.
(ii) If the firm wants to signal that the loss is temporary it will maintain the same level of dividends. It can do this so long as it has enough retained profits.
(iii) By law, the firm will be unable to pay a dividend over the following year because it cannot pay a dividend when it makes a loss.
Select the most correct response:
Question 104 CAPM, payout policy, capital structure, Miller and Modigliani, risk
Assume that there exists a perfect world with no transaction costs, no asymmetric information, no taxes, no agency costs, equal borrowing rates for corporations and individual investors, the ability to short the risk free asset, semi-strong form efficient markets, the CAPM holds, investors are rational and risk-averse and there are no other market frictions.
For a firm operating in this perfect world, which statement(s) are correct?
(i) When a firm changes its capital structure and/or payout policy, share holders' wealth is unaffected.
(ii) When the idiosyncratic risk of a firm's assets increases, share holders do not expect higher returns.
(iii) When the systematic risk of a firm's assets increases, share holders do not expect higher returns.
Select the most correct response:
Question 455 income and capital returns, payout policy, DDM, market efficiency
A fairly priced unlevered firm plans to pay a dividend of $1 next year (t=1) which is expected to grow by 3% pa every year after that. The firm's required return on equity is 8% pa.
The firm is thinking about reducing its future dividend payments by 10% so that it can use the extra cash to invest in more projects which are expected to return 8% pa, and have the same risk as the existing projects. Therefore, next year's dividend will be $0.90. No new equity or debt will be issued to fund the new projects, they'll all be funded by the cut in dividends.
What will be the stock's new annual capital return (proportional increase in price per year) if the change in payout policy goes ahead?
Assume that payout policy is irrelevant to firm value (so there's no signalling effects) and that all rates are effective annual rates.
Question 723 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate
Here is a table of stock prices and returns. Which of the statements below the table is NOT correct?
| Price and Return Population Statistics | ||||
| Time | Prices | LGDR | GDR | NDR |
| 0 | 100 | |||
| 1 | 99 | -0.010050 | 0.990000 | -0.010000 |
| 2 | 180.40 | 0.600057 | 1.822222 | 0.822222 |
| 3 | 112.73 | 0.470181 | 0.624889 | 0.375111 |
| Arithmetic average | 0.0399 | 1.1457 | 0.1457 | |
| Arithmetic standard deviation | 0.4384 | 0.5011 | 0.5011 | |
Question 779 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate
Fred owns some BHP shares. He has calculated BHP’s monthly returns for each month in the past 30 years using this formula:
###r_\text{t monthly}=\ln \left( \dfrac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} \right)###He then took the arithmetic average and found it to be 0.8% per month using this formula:
###\bar{r}_\text{monthly}= \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( r_\text{t monthly} \right)} }{T} =0.008=0.8\% \text{ per month}###He also found the standard deviation of these monthly returns which was 15% per month:
###\sigma_\text{monthly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( \left( r_\text{t monthly} - \bar{r}_\text{monthly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} =0.15=15\%\text{ per month}###Assume that the past historical average return is the true population average of future expected returns and the stock's returns calculated above ##(r_\text{t monthly})## are normally distributed. Which of the below statements about Fred’s BHP shares is NOT correct?